Passing is the way in the NFL. It is the most efficient way to move the ball, as well as generally more exciting than running. Throwing and catching the ball are the main drivers of aerial play, but a third factor also makes a big difference between success and failure. Either yards after the catch (YAC), the gains made after the pass.
Football Outsiders has just taken a look at the numbers for 2019. In trying to get the most relevant information, they not only look at the gross YAC, but use their own statistic called YAC +. Here is their definition:
YAC + is similar to plus-minus; it estimates how much YAC a receiver has gained compared to what we would expect from an average receiver picking up passes of similar length in similar descent and distance situations. This is imperfect due to the variations in YAC resulting from the routes traveled by the receivers, but it does a pretty good job of telling you whether this receiver gets more or less YAC than other receivers with similar usage patterns.
This means that it is trying to identify who is good at YAC and who is not based on the extent to which they exceed average performance at all levels. They don’t publish data from all the receivers, but focus on the best and worst of the article, in addition to examining how all the quarters have benefited or not during the season. There were several Dallas Cowboys on the list, which is of course relevant to us.
The top rated wide receiver for Dallas is no longer on the team. Randall Cobb, now with the Houston Texans, was the seventh best receiver in the league (out of 81 who had enough catches to qualify for the standings.) It is not something that concerns us, like his alleged replacement, CeeDee Lamb, has a history of being a real YAC monster in college. And it’s very encouraging to see that right at the bottom of the list, in tenth place, is Michael Gallup.
Amari Cooper is remarkably absent from the top and bottom 20 that FO listed in the article. This may seem a bit surprising, since he certainly looked good in this area last year. We will explore the reasons why this could have happened after identifying the other Cowboys involved.
Weekends were good news / bad news last year, but makes an off-season decision very easy to understand. FO had 48 qualifications, so limited their lists to the top 15 and bottom 15. Two Dallas players made the lists. Blake Jarwin was the 13th best, which reinforces the argument that he was underused last year. He was only targeted 41 times by FO. He was exactly half of Jason Witten – and Witten was one of the worst TEs in the league with his patented body length gain technique, falling just three places before the last dead girl. Separating from the future Hall of Fame to make Jarwin TE1 is clearly the wisest route. FO does not include catch yards in their tables, but Jarwin also had a clear advantage, 11.8 to 8.4.
Back runners are also being considered, but like Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott is somewhere in the middle of the pack – between 21 and 30, as it turns out. This seems wrong because he is such a good runner. We will also come back to this as well.
This brings us to Dak Prescott. The article’s final list shows how much each NFL smuggler has benefited from YAC +. There were 34 quarters with enough passes to meet the threshold for this assessment, and he placed 14th overall. It’s just a little better than mediocre. It also doesn’t match his total yards over the season, where he placed second overall. This could indicate that he was a better ferryman than his receivers because a group were runners, as his aerial yards must have led to the high total. This certainly reinforces the case for his ability to throw the ball deep, as he did not get exceptional help from YAC.
But that does not mean that it did not play a role in the figures of its receivers. YAC is not only about the skills of the receiver. It can be greatly affected by where the ball is placed. However, it is probably more important to call the route / the game. If, for example, the game is designed so that the receiver hooks just past the sticks to give the QB a clear shot which also allows the defender to return to play while the WR is essentially stationary, YAC will be limited. Likewise, Elliott’s YAC numbers will decrease if it is used more as a safety valve, especially if it is supposed to sit in an open space rather than staying in motion.
Looking at the contrast between Jarwin and Witten matches that. Witten’s routes almost always seemed to be sidelined towards the sticks, and he drew a lot of attention there, which means that he was usually encountered very soon after getting the ball. Jarwin was used to lower the seam, which is a recipe for getting YAC in pieces.
This means that the YAC numbers and comparisons probably tell us more about the offense of coaches than anything else. The widely held perception that there was a conservative streak under Jason Garrett is confirmed by these figures. Receivers that do not have the ability to detach after capture, routes that facilitate catching but also facilitate the descent of the receiver before they can do much damage, and do not capitalize on the full capacity of your quarterback, all fit this idea. . The good performance of Gallup and Jarwin also means there is a lot of building capacity, with Lamb probably making things better. And now that Patrick Mahomes has a revolutionary new deal with Kansas City leaders, there is an additional incentive to find ways to maximize what promises to be a very expensive new business for Prescott, every time it is done, by amplifying its own production.
Changing head coaches could be the real path for the Cowboys to progress in these comparisons. Given what Mike McCarthy says and what we have seen from Kellen Moore in games where the reins seemed to be relaxed, there are huge opportunities for receptor talent to work with more room to add the YAC. FO illustrated some valid criticisms of what the team did wrong last year and how it squandered part of the talent advantage it had on offense. It also helps determine how to improve things.
