The PGA remains active this week as it culminates at its stop Muirfield Village with the annual Commemorative invitation event. The course for this year’s race has been expanded from its normal size to 133 players thanks to the scheduled constraints put on tour by COVID-19. The setting will however be listed as a par 72 of 7,456 yards which mainly features green bentgrass with some cultivated poa. However, we should expect some differences. Herds are reportedly allowed to grow and greens are also expected to play a point or two faster on the stimulator. Last week the 14th par-4 played as a drivable par 4, but this could change this week as the tees have room to be rejected. Rain could be the most important factor, since the course was drenched earlier in the week and more storms / rains are expected for the week. A wet course could prolong the duration of the course and make the rough even more difficult, which, in theory, would play in the hands of the bigger hitters. Last week the course achieved an average of 59% driving precision compared to the tee, which is about 1.5% less than the Tour average. It is worth noting for our PGA DFS choices that the first three players in finishing position are all ranked in the top three in hits earned in green last week and within the top 10 in hits earned from the tee.
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Statistics and information on the Memorial course
• Par 72, 7,456 yards; Nicklaus-designed venue with six Par 4s between 450-500 yards
Bentgrass greens mixed with poa; greens should be faster than normal and thicker / wetter due to rain
• Four par 5s, none longer than 560 yards. These holes were ranked as the easiest four on the course last year. Par-4 14th could be rejected, adding even more difficulty to the configuration.
Put the splits
For the fourth week in a row, we will mostly have bentgrass vegetables with a little bit of poa in the mix. The greens obviously have the same surface area as last week, but some changes in speed and pin placement could still mean significant changes in those who position themselves well here. Here are some of the best and worst bent / poa grass putters on the pitch, related to their shots on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they are not the being-all, the end-all, but they create a nice tie.
Negative Bentgrass / Poa putting split, last 50 rounds
1. Paul Casey: -15 on folded / poa, -1 on all other surfaces
2. Henrik Norlander: -5 on folded / poa, +12 on all other surfaces
3. Marc Leishman: -1 on folded / poa, +19 on all other surfaces
* + equals total hits | – equals lost shots
Positive splitting Bentgrass / Poa, last 50 rounds
1. Brandt Snedeker: +45 on folded / poa, +13 on all other surfaces
2. Jon Rahm: +25 on folded / poa, +13 on all other surfaces
3. Nick Taylor: +20 on folded / poa, – / + 0 on all other surfaces
Choices for DraftKings and FanDuel
Tiger Woods: degrees: A, values: A
It looks right on the eve of Woods’ return to competitive play which is the only golf player on Awesemo’s leaderboards who scores A across the board. Tiger remained out of competition for the first section of PGA’s return to action, but as the PGA championship approaches, his focus on getting some competition is clearly a priority. Maybe it has something to do with DFS golf and golf betting that has been gaining popularity in the past few weeks, but the prices we are getting on Woods here seem ridiculously good. $ 9,000 on DraftKings puts Woods $ 500- $ 1,000 behind players like Viktor Hovland is Collin Morikawa in a place that has become like a second home for Tiger during his career. Although we may not have a lot of recent data on him, we know he’s still one of the best iron players in the world. So even if the rest of his game isn’t shooting completely, his approaches are not likely to leave him far from the front of the group. It may end up being chalk this week, but I’m all going to eat some at these prices in the formations.
The statistics:
• Eighth in SG: APP in this field in the last 50 rounds
• Winner five times at Muirfield Village; the last two seasons he has gained 11.4 shots and 5.4 shots with his irons here
DFS PGA properties expected: DraftKings: 22.8% | FanDuel: 22.3%
Paul Casey: votes: B, values: A
Casey has been playing for the second time since this week’s reboot, which should prevent him from being super-chalk on one of the big DFS sites. In most of the weeks in a normal season, if he was coming to this type of event with a solid start like what he had for Travelers, his price below $ 8,000 on DraftKings would have been quickly consumed. For now, however, it seems that most DFS players are wary of Casey, which probably makes it a good buying opportunity. From a value standpoint, you will almost never get a better price on English (unless it’s full Brendon Todd, circa 2016-2019), and it’s not that it doesn’t fit the type of player we’re trying to hit Muirfield. In the past 10 beginnings where ShotLink data existed, Casey scored five or more strokes with his irons in three of them and lost shots on the court only once in this area. He has played at the Memorial only twice since 2014, but he finished 13th in 2014 and has almost always performed well at Augusta National, a place where Muirfield has been designated in several areas. At the prices we’re getting, Casey is a player that I’d really like to go overweight here, regardless of the actual results.
The statistics:
• Sixth in this field in SG: APP statistics in the last 50 rounds; has earned two or more approaching hits in the last three starts
• Eighth near 175-200 yards in the last 50 rounds
DFS PGA properties expected: DraftKings: 11.6% | FanDuel: 9.5%
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GPP flyer of reduced ownership
Ryan Moore: degrees: C, values: A
Moore has fought for consistency in his game for the past year and a half now, but he’s still a player who can show a great advantage when the correct parts of his game come together. Despite the most missed cuts of the normal in the last two years, Moore has managed to accumulate six top 10 in the last two years, and it is worth noting that three of those finishes came out of missed cuts or finishes of the 50th or worse. Typically a player who finds a lot of fairways and relies on his irons being better than everyone else, when Moore’s approaches don’t shoot right on the flag, the problems begin to filter quickly. This was certainly the story of recent times, as it had missed approaching hits in four consecutive events before the Travelers. While he lost the cut in Connecticut, he found some pace with his irons there, getting 1.7 shots on approach. Capturing Moore for this week’s shoot looks like it could pay off a lot, as his record in Muirfield is overwhelmingly solid with a missed cut and four top 20s here in the past seven years. It’s GPP-worthy material for me in this second week in Muirfield.
DFS PGA properties expected: DraftKings: 4.8% | FanDuel: 6.1%
Bonus: DraftKings’ choices Top Five Under Five
I am targeting five players here who ultimately think they will end up under (or close to) 5% ownership in the larger GPP DraftKings. We are looking for boom-or-bust players here with almost 100% upward attention.
Shane Lowry ($ 7,200)
The price seems too low for the current Open winner who has shown some form now in his last two starts. He scored 3.8 shots on approach last week, but finished 39th just because of poor off-tee play, an area he had done well before last week. Lowry will make his third appearance at Memorial since 2017. If you include last week’s efforts, he will have made the cut at Muirfield Village in each of his last three starts with his best finish in 2017 (15).
Keegan Bradley ($ 7,200)
Bradley led the field by hitting the ball last week, but he was also the worst on the field and lost shots in his short game. It seems impossible that it will not be at least a better touch on and around the greens in his second lap, and even if a touch with the hitting ball regresses, some other putts could skip a couple of spaces higher than the 39 since last week. He has a solid overall record in Muirfield which includes the 23rd since 2018 and two other eighth places in previous years.
Bud Cauley ($ 6,700)
Although he blew up in round 2 after profiling him here last week, Cauley has gained a hit or more on approach in his last two starts and typically sports a great short game that saw him run second in shots earned around the green of last season. He occasionally pops up with his putter, so his performance last week around the greens could easily turn around (pretty much the same story as Bradley). It will likely be below 2% in most commercials.
Bernd Wiesberger ($ 6,600)
This is a pure class game. The number 29 player in the world has won three times last year, yet he is still ranked much closer to the minimum than the maximum on DraftKings. While his OWGR may be an inflated touch due to victories on weaker pitches, he has previously flashed in strong fields and is one of the best Euro Tour ball strikers when he’s in top form.
Jason Dufner ($ 6,500)
He has shown an affinity for most of the courses designed by Nicklaus throughout his career and Muirfield has always been a favorite of his. He was a winner here in 2017, and at this price a small improvement over last week’s 56th would probably be enough to make it a worthy endeavor. He has gotten three or more hits in his approach in three of his last five starts now and only has one cut missed at Memorial in his last six visits.
