Four months is a long time. So we’re taking back the title game by looking at the nine NBA teams with at least a 1% chance of winning the title, according to our internal playoff odds (aka Zach Kram), in addition to the 76er, who challenge all mathematics and logic, leading to the reopening of the night on July 30th.
The basics
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Disk: 39-26 (6th at the Eastern Conference)
Numbers: 109.7 offensive evaluation (18th in NBA), 107.6 defensive evaluation (6th), 2.1 net evaluation (12th)
Seeding opponents (in program order): Pacers, spurs, magicians, magic, trail blazers, suns, birds of prey, rockets
Last time, on the 76er …
Philadelphia was running on the spot when the season stopped. Ben Simmons had been sidelined since February with nervous problems in the lower back; it looked like he would miss the start of the playoffs, if not the entire post season. Or, as Brett Brown said when reporters asked if there was a time frame for the return, “I don’t know. And is it really, how long does a piece of string last? Who knows? “
The last game the Sixers played before the season was suspended – a home win against Detroit – was Joel Embiid’s first game after losing the previous five with a sprained left shoulder. Under the microscope, the victory was encouraging for a Philadelphia team preparing for a potentially Simmons-free playoff. Embiid dropped 30 points and grabbed 14 rebounds; Al Horford has improved his best three game streak since November, hitting four 3s and adding 20 points. But the Sixers had been indestructible at home throughout the season with the best NBA record of 29-2 (and the fifth worst away record at 10-24). It would be premature to assume that Horford, now 34, had returned to shape after a season spent looking out of place, or that Embiid was suddenly healthy enough to carry a team for a long period of time, or that even if Simmons were to return, the three would finally live with their full potential. Such as The RingerAs Dan Devine wrote last week, the Sixers look like “the NBA’s most volatile playoff team, with any result from the total blast shit show to the NBA champion that seems plausible.”
How they spent the quarantine
Outside of the numerous photo shoots with Simmons and his dog Bane, the most urgent quarantine updates from the Sixers concerned fitness. In July, Simmons said he was completely healed. Brown said he expected Embiid “to be in as good a shape as he has been since I trained him”. (Considering Embiid’s past conditioning status, this could mean anything from very impressive to marginally impressive.) Three people on the team’s traveling team – made up of players, coaches and basketball operations staff – proved positive for the coronavirus in March during the first round of NBA Test; no name leaked.
It was good to know Matisse Thybulle’s inner self under coercion which is also self-isolation. Here is Thybulle who befriends his Roomba, just your typical link between man and emptiness:
Alone, Thybulle created TikToks which typically require two people, such as dancing (he did it with the mirror) and pretending that another woman called while his girlfriend was in the room (he played both himself and his girl in this production). My favorite Thybulle quarantine moment was not a video, but a quote. When asked how Simmons was handling isolation, Thybulle said, “I don’t really know. He’s probably just killing people call of Duty“.
Seeding-Games goal: match up to the Pacers
Indiana and Philly are both two no games. 4-seed Miami Heat. The Sixers have one of the easiest programs of the 22 teams invited, but half of this goal is beyond their control. Pairing with Pacers is the best shot to advance to the second round. Victor Oladipo initially gave up the bubble. He is now trying to decide while exercising with his team inside the bubble. Even if Oladipo returns, there is no guarantee that it will be the same presence on the pitch as it was before the injury. (See the 13 games he played in 2019-20 for reference.)
The biggest question about bubbles in the field: will Simmons work on 4?
The top five that Brown launches in the Sixers’ first seeding game could be a combination never used before. He has played Simmons exclusively to the 4 in practice since he arrived at Disney, deferring the ball management responsibilities to Shake Milton, who was filling in for Simmons before the arrest. Moving Simmons to 4 could solve two problems: his adaptation with Embiid and that of Horford with the team. The latter was moved to the bench in February for three games before it was clear that Simmons would be out indefinitely. It was the first time that Horford had not been in the initial lineup since his beginner season.
The new formation could also create a new tension. If Milton and Simmons share the ball, it could cut Embiid’s stock of touches. Simmons, who is used to more responsibility, could ask for more. (Although even suggesting that it should come with the reminder that it is averaging the fifth most assists per game in 2019-20-20 with 8.2.) With its swiftness and agility, there is no telling what the off-ball potential is by Simmons. “There is no one faster in the NBA,” said Brown. “So always having the ball and dribbling against five guys … dilutes some of his powerful weapons to do it.”
Brown, who has been in the warm seat for about three years, needed to change something. Another short playoff (with another iteration of actors) would be a waste of another year of Simmons and Embiid’s youth. In the past two post-reasons, Philadelphia has been eliminated in the second round, and so far there has been little indication that this year it will go differently. Changing the starting lineup with eight games remaining is a dangerous bet, but considering how disappointing the Sixers were before the break, it might be riskier to stay the same.
Player in the spotlight: Shake Milton
Assuming it starts, Milton could be the biggest X factor for the Sixers. When the second year guard was added to the initial lineup, it was interpreted as more of a new low for the team than an opportunity for a budding point guard. Milton hadn’t recorded more than 17 minutes or scored more than 10 points in a game all season. The inclusion of a plane general who can shoot from a distance helps Philadelphia’s perpetual perimeter shooting problem. In the 20 games in a row played by Milton before the break, he fired 51.2 percent with 4.2 attempts from 3 points per game. His best representation came against the Clippers (all Clippers; this was not a game without Kawhi Leonard or Paul George) in March: 39 points, 7 out of 9 from 3, five assists, three rebounds and one theft. More than that from him in the point guard position with Simmons’ ability set elsewhere gives the 76ers another dimension.
On a scale of magicians to 10, where 10 is the best shot in a title, what are the six’s chances of winning the 2020 title?
Sixers’ Vegas odds are 27-1. With the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks completely healthy, this could result in a 4. There are so many unknowns: how the Sixers won’t manage their games at home in reality being home games, how the new lineup will work, how their opponents have been facing the bubble and the question of the past six years, if Embiid and Simmons can stay healthy, that it’s impossible to know where Philadelphia really is.
