Which team will win the 2020 NBA championship? We have been waiting to find out for more than a year, since injuries and departures invalidated the Warrior dynastic and laid the foundations for the most open-minded race in a decade.
Most recently, we have been waiting for months to stand still, with the COVID-19 pandemic forcing a postponement and, finally, an unprecedented post-season situation, with 22 of the league’s 30 teams decoding for Orlando, where they will be seized and will compete for a title. Given the oddity of this season, anything can happen in the new NBA courts in the coming months.
And with today’s launch of The RingerAs for the NBA Restart Odds, we’re here to help you make a little more sense of the oddity that will come. Wanting bubble integrity, the restart quotas update every night until an NBA champion is decided. Based on team strength measured from the differential point – a historically strong predictor of success – with adjustments for individual wrinkles such as player absences, our playoff probability model includes three main features to help NBA fans navigate the weeks and in the coming months:
1. Restart odds show the odds of the single game for each day’s games. On the reopening evening, for example, the Jazz are 60-40 favorites over pelicans, while the game between Lakers and Clippers is close to the toss of a coin (51-49 percent in favor of the Lakers).
Also, once the playoffs begin, the daily odds will reflect the importance of each game for the end result of the series. We all know, intuitively, that a Game 4 between Bucks and Nets with the Bucks leading 3-0 would not have much importance, while a Game 4 between Lakers and Clippers with the Lakers rising 2-1 would induce a huge swing in the series. For viewers who choose and choose which games to watch in a crowded playoff evening, the model can quantify how much each race counts.
2. Restart odds show game odds for various teams fighting for no. 8 and 9 seeds. If the team that ends no. 8 in the ranking is more than four games before n. 9, will automatically qualify for the 16-team bracket, but if the two teams are within four games of each other, they will enter a game period where the no. 8 suits must win a game to advance, while the no. 9 seeds must win twice.
The model will show the odds that various teams will finish eighth and ninth in their conference, as well as the chances of those teams to force a game. This portion of analysis is particularly useful in the Knotty Western Conference, where six teams are fighting for two points and where a thousandth of a literal decimal could mean the difference between a playoff appearance and a homecoming trip.
3. Restart odds show each team’s chances of advancing through various playoff rounds, from qualifying for everyone to winning the title.
The structure of the model holds up well historically when it has been subjected to retrospective tests on more than 700 series since the invention of the shooting watch. For example, the model would expect the biggest favorites to win 94 percent of their series and, in fact, 94 percent have; he expects the favorites in the closest series to win 55 percent of the time and win 54 percent. On this graph, the blue line represents a “perfect” model and the red line is the actual result. Outside of a blip, the two lines chase each other perfectly. (A similar blip appears in the same place on a graph of FiveThirtyEightNBA playoff model. Reality is never as perfect as you would like.)
Of course, given the uncertainty surrounding this post-season, the restart odds also explain factors that go beyond the team’s core strength. They strip the advantage of the field at home, because each team plays away from home. They also include injuries and absences from other players. But to account for missing players is complicated because their production does not disappear; their minutes are instead distributed to other players in the rotation. Rajon Rondo, for example, has played worse than Alex Caruso this season – so while the Lakers may end up complaining about the absence of the injured guard point while recovering from a broken thumb, they could also benefit from extra game time for Caruso. It is difficult to know in advance.
So the model handles absences from role players conservatively and absences from stars aggressively. If LeBron James were to lose a game, of course, the Lakers’ chances of winning that game would have fallen. For now, have mercy on wizards without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, their top two players with advanced metrics.
Here’s how the model works, in broad terms. But what does it show to start? Here are three initial takeaways.
1. The Bucks remain the favorites of the title.
I have long explored the favorite state of the Bucks earlier this month; read this piece for further reflections on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and the historical domination of the Bucks.
But the restart quotas underscore another reason to appreciate Milwaukee’s chances: their easiest path in the Eastern Conference. Nets and Wizards are sending exhausted rockets to the bubble, so the Bucks are as close to reaching the second round of the playoffs as possible. In the other conference, however, the Lakers are likely to play Memphis or New Orleans in the 1 seed vs 8 seed matchup, and while LA is still the huge favorite against any opponent in the first round, there is a material difference between a 99 chance forward rate (Bucks probability) and 93 percent probability (Lakers probability). Think about it this way: Bucks have a 1 percent chance of doing it to lose before the second round, while the Lakers are seven times more likely to lose it soon.
Clippers’ potential to lose early is even greater. Kawhi Leonard and Co. are essentially stuck in the no. 2 or 3 seeds in the West, so they will be forced to play a very good team from the first round. Their most likely first round opponents are Mavericks, Rockets and Thunder; if they win the first round, they will likely face the Nuggets or another vital team from the western group. Once again, the Clippers are favored to beat any of those teams – apart from the math, I would certainly choose them to win – but the challenges could accumulate over the entire post-season.
The Bucks would also be the obvious favorite against any potential opponent in the conference finals, while a clash between the Lakers and the Clippers would be roughly a 50-50 coin toss. This is another point in Milwaukee’s favor, although despite all these logistical advantages, the Bucks still have the chance to lose the title as they are to conquer it. Good news: after all, we will all have reason to watch the games.
2. Why does the bubble include 22 teams again?
The NBA would probably have had to invite 20 teams to Orlando if it wanted to better balance more games (for more TV revenue) with greater security (through fewer players within the bubble environment). But the teams 21 and 22 in the standings, Wizards and Suns, have a combined probability of 1% of reaching the 16-team band. To make the playoffs, Washington must first make two games on Nets or Magic, then beat the no. 8 seeds twice in a row in the play-in round. They should be doing all this without Beal or Bertans. (The model estimates that the new Wizards will win 20 games in the neighborhood for an entire season.) In the meantime, the Suns have to jump over four teams in the western league table just to get a chance at the play-in round, and therefore have to do, while playing one of the most demanding programs of any team in Orlando.
Washington’s first two games in the bubble collide with Suns and Nets: a pair of stall burners to welcome the viewing audience to NBA basketball.
The most likely outcome for play-ins at the Western Conference would put Memphis against New Orleans, followed by Memphis-Sacramento and Memphis-Portland. There is only 11 percent chance of a game turn in the East, compared to 91 percent chance of a game turn in the West.
3. The warriors are gone, but the race for the title is still very heavy.
Only six teams have at least 1 percent chance of winning the title; only 11, or half of the teams in the bubble, have a 1 percent chance of reaching the final. That number could change as the game progresses in Orlando: a team like the 76ers has the talent, if not the track record, to make a run, and if they play well in the next eight games and increase their position in the band, the their odds will certainly be upward. In the current state of affairs, however, there is a good chance that the 76ers will need to defeat the Celtics, the Raptors and the Dollars in a row just to reach the finals, so it is not surprising that their calculated possibilities – initially less than 1 % – go below a pure talent rating might suggest.
In the history of the NBA, only two teams with seeds below the third in their conference have ever won the title: the 1968-69 Celtics with the fourth seed and the 1994-95 Rockets with the sixth seed. Teams sown n. 1 have won over 70 percent of championships in the time trial era.
It is possible that the oddity of the postseason 2020 will overturn this usual dynamic and lead to more upheavals and unexpected results. Perhaps the lack of a home advantage will harm the best teams more than math suggests; perhaps the mental stress of playing inside a bubble within a pandemic-affected nation will affect some players more than others. But even with all the swirling uncertainties, it’s hard to bet against teams with Giannis, LeBron and Kawhi as the most likely to increase this season’s trophy. Keep track of the restart quotas every day for the next few months and you will be able to see how likely it is, from start to finish inside the bubble.
