Every year, ESPN releases its upcoming NFL Power Rankings, which is supposed to reveal how teams are shaping up in the next three-year window. Three years is a lifetime in the NFL today and it’s one of the main reasons why these power rankings can vary so much from year to year.
Last year, the top team in ESPN’s upcoming power rankings was the Indianapolis Colts, believe it or not. There is no way ESPN could have known that shortly after the publication of his list Andrew Luck would choose to retire.
On that list, ESPN ranked the New England Patriots second, and again, this is a situation where quarterback changes have drastically changed a roster’s outlook and a roster’s outlook. to come up. One team that hasn’t seen a huge change from its year-over-year standings is the Denver Broncos.
ESPN ranked Denver No.22 last year and this season the Broncos are now ranked 24th. You read correctly. ESPN ranked Denver lower this year than around this time last summer.
Before I explain why ESPN leans in this direction for the Broncos roster, I’ll talk about the network formula for these rankings. ESPN has what it calls an “expert panel” that ranks each team based on five categories.
These categories are quarterback, non-quarterback roster, training, draft and front office.
Each category is weighted in the final ranking, with the list representing the highest percentage at 30% of the review, with the draft and front office representing the lowest at 15%, respectively. Both the coach and the quarterback receive 20% of the final mark.
The Broncos arrived with a final score of 72.3. ESPN ranked the Broncos in the individual categories 16th overall (minus quarterback), 24th in quarterback, 28th in coaching (last year, coaching 13th), draft No.17 and at the front office No 21.
We understand how ESPN could come up with some of these rankings, but others are so far away.
ESPN asked the expert panel to justify the ranking, but even these are a bit lower. A good example is Louis Riddick, under the heading of “ greatest concern ”, says this:
“John Elway is all-in on [Drew] Lock, evidenced by the speed and playing ability he added to the squad via WR’s Jerry Jeudy draft. and KJ Hamler. The question is whether the offensive line, ranked 24th in sacks per attempted pass allowed in 2019, has been improved enough to allow Elway’s bet on Lock to bear fruit.
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The Broncos to have shown they are all-in on Lock. In today’s NFL, teams that succeed with a young quarterback do just that. Kansas City already had a large core of players in place for Patrick Mahomes when he took over in 2018 and Baltimore last year did everything to build the offense around the skill and talent of Lamar Jackson.
Riddick’s question on the Broncos’ offensive line is not without merit as many articles have been written about this unit’s struggles. Where it is a bit short is his remark on the rate of dismissal by attempted pass.
Drew Lock proved last season that one area where he turned out to be the top flight was the ability to stand and avoid taking sacks. He had a pretty good sense of pressure and got his readings faster than Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen, who preceded him under the center. Much of what OC Pat Shurmur brings to the table is a quick offensive system.
I also question the rating ESPN gave the Broncos for their 2020 Draft. ESPN has given no justification as to why Denver’s Draft Class is ranked so low. If anything, going back to the immediate consequences of the project, ESPN’s comment on the Denver transport had been glowing.
The truth is, the Broncos were also praised and received applause from the NFL for their 2019 Draft class, so for ESPN ranking them this low just seems a little misguided. If it was the 2018 offseason, I could understand a little more skepticism in that department as the Broncos have had a long period of bad drafts.
The only final ESPN position ranking that surprised me is that of the coaches. I don’t see how the Broncos went from 13th overall in 2019 to 28th in 2020.
The only significant change for the coaching staff was the replacement of Shurmur to replace Rich Scangarello as offensive coordinator and Mike Shula to replace TC McCartney at QBs Coach. This should represent a big improvement on the offensive end of the ball for any objective analyst.
ESPN may question Vic Fangio’s long-term viability in Denver, but that hasn’t really changed from last season until today. The Denver coaching staff also showed quite well in keeping the team focused and winning after a 0-4 start last year, which almost destroyed any hope the Broncos would have a playoff chance.
ESPN’s Field Yates took him out of the park with his analysis of the Broncos roster when he said this:
“There’s a lot to love about Denver’s attacking core, as the tight, receiving squad is littered with youth, speed and potential. Quarterback Drew Lock showed well in his five starts as a rookie last season and will play a pivotal role in Denver’s predictions: If Lock cements his status as a quarterback of the present and the future, Denver will soar through those ranks to haste. “
As with most NFL rosters, it mostly comes down to the quarterback. The Broncos showed in 2016 that the roster can be filled to the brim with talent around the quarterback, but without a good one at the helm, the train is going to have a hard time leaving the station.
The Broncos have gone all-in on Lock as the team’s future and if it can turn out to be exactly that, around the same time next year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Broncos ranked in the ESPN’s top 10. I don’t blame ESPN for still not believing Lock is the guy.
A five-game sample is simply too small for a quarterback to draw any foolproof long-term conclusions. The 2020 season will tell the story of the next five years for the Broncos.
Either Lock flies away and the Broncos are fighting over the Super Bowls and portraying ESPN and other national Doubting Thomas pundits, or they return to the drawing board and try again to solve the quarterback dilemma- back.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
