Detailed breakdown of chances to win each Cowboys game and Super Bowl chances for 2020

We are hopefully getting closer to the 2020 NFL season. It’s still unsure as the NFL continues to tinker around the edges of the calendar, like the recent report that the preseason will only last two games, but the plan is to start the season in early September. As such, the analysis of the season continues.

Recently, Sportsbook Scout, a sports betting analysis site, contacted BTB to see if we would be interested in a detailed breakdown of the Cowboys season using point spreads and other information to create a season overview. for Cowboys. We said that we would like to take a look at this information, and now we are passing it on to you.

Using the SRS rankings, they created an NFL Power ranking that places the Cowboys in fifth place behind Baltimore, Kansas City, New Orleans and San Francisco. (You can read more about SRS here.)

Here’s more on the Cowboys.

The Dallas Cowboys have approximately a calendar average strength (17th) according to SRS implied odds for the coming season. Overall, the Cowboys are favored in 12 of 16 games, the only significant outsider being in Baltimore in week 13 (+7).

To start the season, the Cowboys are favored in six of their first seven games. The Cowboys are just an outsider in week 3 in Seattle (+2) during this streak.

In order to simplify the calendar analysis, I have divided the Cowboys calendar into five groups: Likely victory, lean victory, throw, lean loss, probable loss.

Probable victory (8 games with> 60% probability of winning)

Week 2 vs Atlanta Falcons: -7 | 67.3% chance of winning

Week 4 vs Cleveland Browns: -5.5 | 63.3% chance of winning

Week 5 vs New York Giants: -8.5 | 71.4% chance of winning

Week 6 vs Arizona Cardinals: -7.5 | 68.7% chance of winning

Week 7 to Washington Redskins: -8.5 | 71.4% chance of winning

Week 12 against Washington Redskins: -13 | 82.2% chance of winning

Week 14 to Cincinnati Bengals: -8 | 70.0% chance of winning

Week 17 at New York Giants: -6 | 64.6% chance of winning

Lean Win (2 games with a probability of victory of 55 to 60%)

Week 1 to Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% chance of winning

Week 9 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% chance of winning

Toss Up (3 games with a 45-55% chance of winning)

Week 10 to Minnesota Vikings: -0.5 | 49.8% chance of winning

Week 15 vs San Francisco 49ers: +1 | 45.7% chance of winning

Week 16 vs Philadelphia Eagles: -1.5 | 52.5% chance of winning

Skinny loss (2 games with 40-45% chance of winning)

Week 3 to Seattle Seahawks: +1.5 | 44.4 odds of winning

Week 8 at the Philadelphia Eagles: +2 | 43.0% chance of winning

Probable loss (1 game with a probability of victory <40%)

Week 13 to Baltimore crows: +6.5 | 30.9% chance of winning

Add all

When you put it all together, the Cowboys season goes like this:

8 likely wins

2 Lean Win

3 Toss Up

2 Lean loss

1 Probable loss

Based on the current point spreads, the Cowboys seem very likely to win at least 8 games. A favorable calendar at the start of the season could put them in place with some momentum in the second half of the season.

NFC East 2020 Win Totals: Where the Cowboys Are

NFC East appears to be a two-team race: Dallas and Philadelphia. The implicit SRS ranking also corresponds to this, Dallas ranking 5th and Philadelphia 7th.

If Dallas slips against either division rival (New York or Washington), Philadelphia could take on NFC East.

PointsBet Sportsbook has set the following lines for the NFC East season totals:

Dallas: 9.5 wins

Philadelphia: 9.5 wins

New York: 6 wins

Washington: 5 wins

In order for the Cowboys to win more than 9.5 wins, they would only need to win 2 of the following games (assuming they win their likely win games):

Week 1 at the Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% chance of winning

Week 9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% chance of winning

Week 10 for the Minnesota Vikings: -0.5 | 49.8% chance of winning

Week 15 against San Francisco 49ers: +1 | 45.7% chance of winning

Week 16 against the Philadelphia Eagles: -1.5 | 52.5% chance of winning

I underlined (italics) the games I think are the Cowboys most likely to win. A Rams week 1 game with a new coach could be a big challenge, but it’s a safe bet that they are in favor of the win. The next most likely win would be against Pittsburgh in week 9 (58% chance of winning).

Dallas Cowboys Chances of Winning Super Bowl

The Dallas Cowboys’ chances of winning the Super Bowl are currently +1700 at the PointsBet Sportsbook (5.6% chance). This is the 6th best odds for any team behind the following:

Kansas City +500 (16.7% chance)

Baltimore +600 (14.3% chance)

San Francisco +900 (10% chance)

Tampa Bay +1000 (9.1% chance)

New Orleans +1100 (8.3% chance)

Kansas City and Baltimore are in the AFC, while Tampa Bay and New Orleans are in the same division. If the Cowboys manage to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC, they would have an advantage on the field against one of these playoff teams.

A potential NFC championship game in San Francisco (implicit SRS ranking of 4th place, one place above Dallas), could be a draw.

NFC East and Playoff Odds: Take Care of Business

Other markets of interest to the Cowboys this season are the NFC East playoff odds.

The Cowboys have an implied 52% (-110) probability of winning NFC East according to PointsBet, slightly ahead of Philadelphia (4635%, +115). Divisional clashes, particularly against the Eagles in week 8 (+2) and week 16 (-1.5) could decide the NFC East champion.

In terms of playoff odds, the Cowboys (-233) and the Eagles (-213) are big favorites for success. Teams evolve over the course of a season, so it will be interesting to see how Dallas evolves under new coach Mike McCarthy.

To make the Cowboys miss the playoffs, they would likely have to win 7 games or less. Assuming they win the 7 games they are most favored in, that would mean the Cowboys should to lose the following likely win and lean win games:

Week 1 at the Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% chance of winning

Week 4 against Cleveland Browns: -5.5 | 63.3% chance of winning

Week 9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% chance of winning

These losses would be in addition to losing the rest of the Toss Up, Lean Lose and L Probable Lose matches. It seems like it would take a serious injury or a difficult transition to a new head coach for this to happen.

The Cowboys are ready to become contenders for the Super Bowl in 2020. Will Mike McCarthy take them to the next level? Only time will tell.

Thanks to our friends at Sportsbook Scout for sharing this information with us.