Over the past decade, we have seen the National Football League’s trend further transform into a passing league while drawing heavily on analysis. Choosing to go for it in fourth position, throwing the ball on the ball and making two are just a few examples of how analytics plays a role in today’s game.
Some of the game’s top coaches are currently using analytics extensively, such as Andy Reid, Bill Belichick and Sean Payton. It should not be surprising that these three are among the best in their profession and are constantly evolving as the elements of the game change.
Hayden Winks of Rotoworld delved into the world of numbers and analysis to determine the most aggressive and least aggressive coaches and patterns in the NFL right now. Winks noted that some of the data he has looked into is the result of coaches pushing the limits, while some can be attributed to the particular pattern in which the team operates.
I must emphasize one more thing before arriving at the classification. There is a huge difference between an offense actually using analysis and simply having a pattern correlated with analysis. The Ravens actually use analytics, but other teams in the top 10 don’t. It turns out that they simply have a schema that corresponds to the consensus views of the analytical community. The reality is that coaches and decision makers in the game on both sides of the ball are not using enough analysis. Hopefully this will change. Okay, now let’s have fun:
Winks separated coaches into different levels, from the first level “You like to see it“At level five”Voluntarily ignorant” Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore reports to the second tier, or “Pretty cheesy“
8. Cowboys (OC Kellen Moore)
4th downward aggression: 10th
First round success rate: 18th
Success rate on the run: 6th
Play-Action Rate: 14th
Downstream pass rate: 10th
Midfield success rate: 12th
Percentage of pre-hanging movement: 14th
Outdoor race rate: 18th
Shotgun execution rate: 17th
Offensive pace: 2nd
Going from coach Jason Garrett to coach Mike McCarthy probably makes the Cowboys’ offense even more analytical, although OC Kellen Moore is the real driver of this high ranking. It’s an offense that does nothing wrong – their worst ranking is their away race rate (18th), which is one of the least significant statistics that I assess in this column – but the offensive Cowboys does nothing good either, apart from playing at the second beat. With head coach, tight end and third receiver upgrades, Dallas has no excuse for not ranking higher in aggression to 4th down (10th) and rate of success in the first tests (18th) next season. At the bare minimum, they should use much more play action (14th) if they think Ezekiel Elliott is setting up the overtaking offense. This is not the case elsewhere.
Moore is considered by many to be one of the young and bright minds in league football right now. The former NCAA record quarterback at Boise State has been among the smartest in the room since joining the Dallas Cowboys as a backup signalman. We saw Dak Prescott take a big leap in 2019 as part of Moore’s first season as an American team player, and Mike McCarthy decided to keep the 32-year-old.
According to Winks’ data, however, the Cowboys offense “does nothing bad” but also “does nothing good either”. The song noted that the Cowboys play with the second fastest pace in the league, but are not particularly good at anything else according to pure analysis – as evidenced by the fact that they are between 10 and 18 in many of these categories.
Dallas was in the middle of the league in terms of play action usage by these numbers, which should certainly change with McCarthy’s influence now in the building. By comparison, the Ravens with John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson finished first and the Chiefs with Reid and Patrick Mahomes finished second in the game-action rate category.
We’ve seen Dak Prescott succeed on counterfeits when given the opportunity, and it seems like it would make sense for any calling player to further implement this in today’s game. And even if the backs don’t count as much as before, Ezekiel Elliott is still among the top three backs in football. In addition, forcing the defense to question and hesitate, even for a fraction of a second, can lead to big games for the passing game and the offense as a whole.
The Cowboys have added an elite talent to a wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb, there are expectations that Blake Jarwin will bloom at the close end without Jason Witten on the depth chart, and many hope we see more of Tony Pollard. Add Mike McCarthy to replace Jason Garrett – who has developed a reputation as a conservative coach – and Moore having a season calling games to his credit, it will be fascinating to see how Cowboys are aggressive in analytical play. in 2020.
