The Champions League this season is different from the others, and for good reason. The coronavirus pandemic ended the competition midway through the round of 16, with four teams moving forward, four more sets yet to be determined and a reformatting of the rest of the knockout phase needed to crown a winner.
Instead of the normal procession to the final, everything has changed. The quarter-finals and semi-finals are no longer two-legged affairs, home and home. All teams from the eight finalists will move to Lisbon, Portugal, for a sprint in the final between 12 and 23 August.
Friday’s draw paved the way for the remaining teams, with all four teams making it to the quarterfinals to end on one side of the sideline, while the remaining eight still fell to the other.
PSG will play Atalanta and Atletico Madrid will face RB Leipzig in two of the four quarter-finals, what we know. The rest has to be determined, but it still takes a look at what the next two rounds will look like. The winner of Bayern Munich-Chelsea (Bayern are leading 3-0 from the first leg in London) will meet the winner of Barcelona-Napoli (level at 1-1, Barcelona have an away goal) in a quarter-final .
In the other, the winner of Manchester City-Real Madrid (City 2-1 lead after a triumph in the first leg at Bernabeu) will face Juventus winner against Lyon (Lyon beat Juve 1-0 at home all ‘gone).
The winner of Bayern / Chelsea vs Barcelona / Napoli will therefore face the winner of Man City / Real Madrid against Juventus / Lyon for a place in the final, where one of PSG / Atalanta / Atletico Madrid / RB Leipzig will be waiting. Pretty simple, right?
Here is a closer look at what remains in an unconventional knockout phase of the Champions League and who could have the advantage once the scene moves to Portugal:
A lopsided bracket
On the one hand, there are the five teams that have already won Champions League titles and a combined total of 26 European crowns and 45 final appearances (and none of these include Man City). On the other, two clubs that had never even reached the knockout stage (RB Leipzig, Atalanta), a club that has sadly underperformed nationally this season (Atletico Madrid, which has reached three finals, including two in the last six years) and one who has perpetually flopped on this stage and has not played since March (PSG).
Depending on who prevails over the last 16 remaining games – which, more importantly, they can be kept in their original destinations instead of moving to neutral sites – there may be a real imbalance once things progress in Portugal.
PSG’s path is wide open, but what about that layoff?
PSG waited for an opportunity like this.
Years of disappointment have built up on the Champions League stage, with the past 16 and quarter-finals turning out to be too high in the past seven years despite spending habits that should have produced considerably more success. It is well documented that the uncompetitive nature of Ligue 1 has made PSG not ready for the elite pairings on the European stage, and while it is true that some draws were faced in the first rounds along the way, the continental expectations for the clubs have not been met.
The draw this time for PSG, whose last game was a first leg victory over Dortmund in an empty stadium (before its players celebrated on the streets with thousands of fans in scenes that, on closer inspection, seem horrible) l ’11 March, appears favorable. Atalanta is a thrilling ride and one of the best stories in Europe, but its wide open nature could provide the kind of advantageous meeting for Neymar, Kylian Mbappe & Co.
Making things complicated for PSG is that long layoff. He will have some friendlies and a couple of competitive setups (the Coupe de France and Coupe de la Ligue finals against Saint Etienne and Lyon, respectively) before meeting Atalanta, but the age-old question of rest against rust will persist , especially against a team that has been unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions, has been perfect since the restart of Serie A and has managed to make a series of three consecutive consecutive games.
PSG should still be considered the favorite to progress from that half of the range, and there remains the possibility of the Financial Fair Play Final that breaks UEFA’s collective brain: PSG vs. Man City, especially considering the latter’s ban on competition is currently attractive, would be fascinating in all respects, especially those off the pitch.
The potential for Messi vs Ronaldo
A lot of things have to go right, but Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo could share the Champions League semifinal phase.
As mentioned earlier, Barcelona and Juventus have both had work to do in the past 16 years, and considering how both have gone recently, there is no guarantee that they will arrive in Lisbon. Napoli was a recovering team, opposing Inter and Juventus to win the Italian Cup and with its only defeat after the restart at Atalanta. Barcelona fought for consistency in the league and lost points where they normally wouldn’t be. In a unique scenario, it is not difficult to imagine that Napoli jumps by surprise, even if Barcelona’s away goal in the first leg seems wide. Even if he passes Barcelona, Bayern Munich will almost certainly wait, impatient to undertake his search for the most bizarre and deserving high notes in the world and just out of a ruthless race in Germany.
The Juventus photo is a little more difficult to paint. He has to make up for the deficit with Lyon, who, like PSG, will barely have any reps before returning to the Champions League. After that there is a showdown with one of the two clubs that are probably in better shape, in Man City and Real Madrid.
Messi and Ronaldo have met on the Champions League stage three times before, but not since 2011, when Messi’s Barcelona sent Ronaldo’s Real Madrid en route to the final.
Transfer times leave a little shorthand
It is a pity that RB Leipzig did not have Timo Werner available for this historic occasion. Julian Nagelsmann’s team was inconsistent after the restart of the Bundesliga, but for a while, before the pandemic, it looked like a club that was able to put an end to Bayern’s internal rule and make a real tour in Europe . Werner leaves for Chelsea and his departure will come before the quarterfinals of the UCL. Considering the draw, it is difficult not to wonder what could have been for Leipzig, not that the club is a pushover and cannot win without its star forward. But his ability to score cannot be missing, and his absence is an advantage for Atletico Madrid, which has shown its way to navigate this competition in the past, regardless of what happened to the Liga.
Werner isn’t the only player who has changed teams and will have to watch his former team as a spectator. Lucas Tousart, who scored Lyon’s goal in the first leg against Juventus, has returned to Hertha Berlin’s home team. Right back Thomas Meunier has left PSG for Dortmund, although his new club reportedly left the door open for him to continue playing for his ex. It remains to be seen if it does.
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