The last pairing on Sunday at the Travelers Championship will serve as reminder # 87194 that there is no one right way to be successful in professional golf.
The pair consists of Brendon Todd (+175), who missed exactly one – yes, only one – fairway through 54 holes, and Dustin Johnson (+200), who took a slightly different approach and pounds the ball an average of 307 meters from Tee removed and the greens spiced up with a music volume of more than 80%.
Todd and Johnson will apparently play the role of the odd couple in the TPC River Highlands, two perfect strangers playing different games on the same holes.
There are of course some similarities. They are currently running 1: 2 in the leaderboard, with each new round score of 61 to overtake a bevy of other high-profile competitors in the third round, and will try to prove these numbers on the last day.
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Oh, and that’s not the only thing in common. Here’s one more thing: I wouldn’t bet either of them to win now.
Todd and Johnson, separated by a handful of punches against Kevin Streelman (+700), Mackenzie Hughes (+2000), Kevin Na (+2800) and Bryson DeChambeau (+900), will undoubtedly have a hard time chasing their super – low sums from Saturday.
However, that’s not the only reason to fade them.
When it comes to Todd, it’s just a little bit difficult to believe that he will win three times in one season, especially in an abbreviated one.
Here is the list of all the people who have won at least three titles in a PGA TOUR season: Rory McIlroy (three times), Tiger Woods (twice), Dustin Johnson (twice), Justin Thomas (twice), Jason Day (twice), Jordan Spieth (twice), Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Jimmy Walker and Jim Furyk.
Nothing against Todd, whose career comeback story is awesome, but if you put his name on this list, you should hum the tune: One of these things is not like the others, one of these things is simply not one of them.
The story has a way of keeping these things at the top level of the player, and while converting two of his three previous 54-hole leads, I can’t help thinking that this feels a bit weak.
All of this brings us to the DJ. It’s hard to see his offensive firepower and think he can’t duplicate the low one on Saturday. “Every hole,” he said afterwards, “I felt like I was giving myself the opportunity to do birdie and I feel like I was rolling the putter well, so I just have to put myself in a position where i am a chance to make a putt. “
There’s no doubt about it: Johnson is hard to beat when he’s on – and he’s a proven winner who has shown he can close at a major, let alone this event. That means in his last two last pairings on Sunday he scored 77 and 74 points. For a man who never looks too nervous or scared, these are some pretty nervous numbers.
Combine that with the fact that it is so difficult to follow a low number – especially your lowest ever for DJ on Saturday – and I would prefer to fade it too.
So who is leaving?
Streelman is the next closest competitor and has won this event before, but he also chases a low number after a third round 63. Right behind him is Hughes, who started at 60 on Thursday, but has been looking normal since then.
So we have my choice before the tournament to win, DeChambeau, who probably needs something in the 62 or 63 range to come from behind, but is as capable as any of the competitors.
Given that he posted a 65 with Strokes Gained numbers on Saturday that looked pretty pedestrian-friendly across the board, Bryson might be prepared for the low to win on a Sunday we’ve had from him for some time expect.
If you really believe that a leaderboard is unlikely to be flipped so many times in a single round, look at what it looked like before the third round on Saturday. (Note: Not exactly like now.) A lot can happen in 18 holes, and too often we make the mistake of believing that the status quo will last.
This could certainly be the case this time – Todd and Johnson both showed that they can win – but I’m in favor of looking a little further down for the one player of value who hasn’t had an unfathomably low round this week.
