Sunday night was surprisingly eventful for the New England Patriots. In less than 20 minutes, it was reported that the NFL docked on the patriots with a draft for the third round in 2021 and a fine of $ 1.1 million for illegally videoing the Bengals sideline and – apparently out of the blue – for the Signed by New England, free agent quarterback Cam Newton had imposed a one-year contract.
Losing a third round selection in next year’s draft could prove costly for New England. After all, Jarrett Stidham, a tip from Auburn in the fourth round, was the alleged starting quarterback before the signing of Newton on Sunday. Less than a week ago, a league insider speculated that Stidham would start all 16 games for the Patriots in 2020. But Newton – another Auburn QB and former NFL MVP – has turned this assumption upside down. In the near future, Newton’s addition could improve the chances of the Patriots Super Bowl: at least one sportsbook has brought the Patriots from 3.9 percent to 5.3 percent after the signing was announced.
However, signing cam is not without risk. Newton is believed to have a high probability of future injuries, making the prospect of future production uncertain. He has had a number of surgeries in recent years, the last of which was an operation on his foot for a Lisfranc injury in December. The injury uncertainty, coupled with reports that the teams were unable to train him due to COVID-19, could explain why New England could sign him to a minimum league contract. However, aside from the risk of injury, there is good evidence that Cam can be a productive passerby for the Patriots if we assume that Cam is healthy enough to start.
Based on the work of Pro Football Focus’s Eric Eager and George Chahrouri, we know that a quarterback’s performance from a clean bag is one of the best predictors of his future production, and Newton has been very consistent with these litters throughout his career.
Except for 2019, when he only started two games, Cam hasn’t had a QBR under 50 with clean pocket throws since joining the league. The completion percentage above expected value (CPOE) can also help us predict future performance. In 2018, Newton achieved 4.2 percentage points more than we would expect from a league average, according to the NFL Next Gen Stats. When Newton enters its 31-year season, there is no reason to believe that if its health comes along it will not return to its previous form.
But Cam’s death may be secondary to the value he brings to New England as a runner. Mobile quarterbacks ensure that the defense makes up an additional player, which negates the numerical advantage in play that the defense normally enjoys over pocket passers-by, who they can often safely ignore. And Cam’s size adds an extra dimension of difficulty to the run’s defense problem because it’s so difficult to bring down. According to Pro Football Focus, Newton has led the NFL quarterbacks with 110 forced failures since 2011. But these runs aren’t just broken games and puzzles: Newton is a smart, instinctive player that a team with option games like zone reading can trust. Since 2011, Newton has led the NFL with 13 touchdowns in 242 zone read attempts, the highest number of attempts by quarterbacks in that period.
Newton is effective when reading the zone
The 2011-19 Rushing games were read in Cam Newton’s regular season zone, adding the expected points (EPA) per game and pass rate *
| season | Zone read rushes | Touchdowns | EPA / play | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 22 | 3rd | +0.08 | 54.5% |
| 2012 | 41 | 1 | +0.07 | 46.3 |
| 2013 | 21 | 1 | +0.02 | 47.6 |
| 2014 | 34 | 0 | +0.07 | 58.8 |
| 2015 | 35 | 2nd | +0.05 | 42.9 |
| 2016 | 20 | 1 | +0.00 | 47.6 |
| 2017 | 31 | 3rd | +0.11 | 64.5 |
| 2018 | 36 | 2nd | +0.05 | 50.0 |
| 2019 | 2nd | 0 | -0.31 | 0.0 |
Smart football analysts believe that the patriots will adjust their offensive to maximize Newton’s strengths. Attacking coordinator Josh McDaniels has probably developed concepts from his time in Denver with Tim Tebow to dust and customize Cam’s specific strengths, and the Patriots defense is generally seen as good enough to play the games despite the unpredictable defensive performance of to keep year after year. There will have to be a lot for the Patriots to have a deep playoff race in 2020. But even if Newton’s signing only helped to divert attention from another round of league penalties for questionable competitive behavior, it could already have been done it’s worth it.
