Alexis Lafreniere is not a defender

I don’t like the playoff format, in which everyone and the Habs can be there. I don’t like the draft lottery format that produced these strange one and a half months, not the anticipation of the playoffs, but the idea of ​​how cool it would be to lose for more than half of the NHL fans. But I don’t like many things about 2020, so this kind of fades in comparison.

Since we’re here, in a world where the NHL has made the decisions that have given us the possibility that the Leafs will lose their opening playoff round and we’ll all get into trouble, I need to know something: are they People really serious when they complain that Alexis Lafreniere would be of no use to the Toronto Maple Leafs because he is not a defender? Is that just the ultimate emotional protection (I don’t want it anyway, so you can’t take care of us if we don’t get it) or are you serious?

You can’t be serious.

You tell me what you think about it. The first question is as follows: Imagine that the Leafs win the second lottery. The best-placed defender is Jamie Drysdale. In addition to sounding like a character in a 1950s soap opera, he’s also small, shoots right, comes from Toronto, and has lots of OHL points. It’s basically the dream of every Leafs fan and Kyle Dubas himself, isn’t it? It is perfect for the team.

Would you take it instead?

There is of course another option. The leafs in possession of this choice could trade them for third or fourth overall and get some extras in addition to the legendary Drysdale, which I am already sure will be the greatest defender of all time. The ink wasn’t even dry on the first lottery results, and people speculated that Ottawa would exchange their two picks, the third and fifth, for the first. Is that plausible at all, no matter who is the owner of the senators? (Imagine you could pay in cash.)

Usually the answers when discussing pick value trades are surprising and involve accepting what are almost equivalent picks. And for picks with a very high probability of returning a player who has no control over the organization, the median is not necessarily the best way to look at the problem. Fortunately, the five best picks are much more solid.

I’m going to use this old analysis from a colleague named Eric T. at Broad Street Hockey because it’s practical and good enough for this mental exercise. (Looking back at the time I posted an aging curve here in comments, and the angry guy I replied to wanted to know who the hell this Eric is and why he should take care of his graphics.)

In Mr. T.’s exercise, which focuses on pick trade valuation, he sets the first overall win to 100, and then it goes like this:

Second: 69.9

Third: 59.4

Fourth: 53.4

Fifth: 49.2

So this is a numerical representation of what we all believe in. The first is uniquely valuable in almost every design year, and the question of who to take with you is usually not a question at all. After that, the top 5 are similar and yet very valuable. This rating indicates that the third and fifth values ​​are on average 108.6 or slightly more than the first overall. So it’s not an absurd idea to do this trade, and since we’re not talking about this particular design on average, the question is: would you trade Lafreniere for a chance of two others in the top 5? Or of course another one and whatever you can get with the additional selection.

What if you weren’t convinced by Jamie Drysdale, a player you might have looked up at Elite Prospects just a minute ago? What if you want a defender and you think that the first choice can bring you an adult with good faith and a contract that you magically fit under the cap. Would you exchange the first overall selection for one of these types?

Obviously, in the fantasy world, where the Leafs suddenly have a left wing of amazing talent that challenges their two most important value centers almost immediately, there is another way to solve this multi-year defense problem. What if the Leafs put Lafreniere in the lead and swapped the big contract that blocks any fantasies about adding a great player of value? Would you effectively exchange Mitch Marner for Alexis Lafreniere and the defender he could bring in?

You can repeat the above exercise with William Nylander and his smaller cap hit if you want, or just wait for the TSN article. But I still wonder that no matter how fixated on defense, everyone would ever think that having the first country on your lap is a problem and not a solution.

What would be your favorite way to clear the list of leafs with this terrible dilemma of an elite winger in an ELC?