As NFL training camps prepare to open across the United States, the race for the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is already taking shape beyond the high-profile quarterbacks and top-ten draft picks. While early betting markets focus on established names, historical precedents show that impact players often emerge from the middle rounds or crowded depth charts to secure the honor.
For fans and analysts tracking the 2024 season, identifying the next breakout star requires looking at players whose specific skill sets align with their team’s offensive scheme and immediate roster needs. Here are four offensive rookies—selected for their potential to outperform their draft status—who warrant close observation during the upcoming preseason.
Troy Franklin: Denver Broncos Wide Receiver
Drafted in the fourth round (102nd overall) out of Oregon, Troy Franklin reunites with his college quarterback, Bo Nix, in the Denver Broncos’ offense. According to the official team transaction report, the Broncos prioritized adding speed to their receiving corps, a trait Franklin demonstrated by recording 1,383 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. While the depth chart at wide receiver in Denver is competitive, Franklin’s pre-existing chemistry with Nix could accelerate his integration into Sean Payton’s playbook. Historical trends suggest that wide receivers who secure immediate rapport with their signal-callers often see higher target volume early in their rookie campaigns.
Braelon Allen: New York Jets Running Back
The New York Jets selected Braelon Allen in the fourth round (134th overall) of the 2024 NFL Draft, bringing the Wisconsin product into a backfield led by Breece Hall. While Hall is the clear starter, the team’s organizational philosophy, as noted in team press materials, emphasizes a physical, committee-based approach to the run game. Standing 6-foot-1 and weighing 235 pounds, Allen offers a power-running profile that could earn him significant goal-line and short-yardage opportunities. If the Jets prioritize reducing the workload on their primary back, Allen is positioned to accumulate the touchdown totals that frequently capture the attention of award voters.
Javon Baker: New England Patriots Wide Receiver
Selected in the fourth round (110th overall) from UCF, Javon Baker enters a New England Patriots offense currently undergoing a significant personnel transition. According to Patriots team communications, Baker’s ability to win contested catches and create separation downfield was a primary factor in his selection. In a receiving room that lacks a solidified WR1, rookie opportunities are often determined by the ability to master complex route trees during camp. If Baker earns the trust of the coaching staff during the preseason, he could quickly become a focal point for the Patriots’ passing attack.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.: New York Giants Running Back
Tyrone Tracy Jr., a fifth-round selection (166th overall) for the New York Giants, represents a unique profile in this year’s rookie class. Having transitioned from wide receiver to running back at Purdue, Tracy offers a versatility that fits the modern, dual-threat requirements of NFL backfields. With Saquon Barkley’s departure in free agency, the Giants have an open competition for backfield touches. As verified by the official draft summary, the team is looking for creative ways to utilize speed in the open field. Tracy’s background as a pass-catcher allows him to contribute in both the run and screen games, making him a dark-horse candidate to emerge as a primary utility player in the Giants’ offense.
Factors Influencing the Rookie Race
The transition to the professional level involves more than raw talent. For these four players, the path to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award hinges on three variables:
- Scheme Fit: How quickly the player masters the team’s specific offensive terminology and protection schemes.
- Opportunity: The level of competition for snaps within their respective positional groups.
- Quarterback Stability: The ability of the team’s passing game to maintain rhythm, which provides more room for skill-position players to operate.
As these rookies report to their respective team facilities for the start of training camp, the next confirmed checkpoint for evaluation will be the first preseason games in August. Performance in these controlled, live-action environments will offer the first concrete data points on how these players will be deployed when the regular season begins in September.
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