Blue Jays vs. Yankees Preview: Odds, Injuries & How Toronto Can Break NY’s Win Streak
June 12, 2024 | Updated 12:45 PM EDT (16:45 UTC)
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to snap a three-game losing streak to the New York Yankees when the teams meet at Yankee Stadium on June 13 (7:10 PM EDT / 23:10 UTC). With Toronto holding a 1.5-game lead in the AL East, the win would extend their series lead to 2-1, while a Yankees victory would tighten the division race. Oddsmakers currently favor New York (-130) over Toronto (+150), but a closer look at injuries, pitching matchups, and historical trends suggests the Blue Jays have a realistic path to the upset.
Key Details: When, Where & How to Watch
- Date/Time: June 13, 2024 – 7:10 PM EDT (23:10 UTC)
- Venue: Yankee Stadium (Capacity: 54,441)
- TV: MLB Network (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
- Weather: Partly cloudy, 78°F (25°C) – Weather.com
- Series Context: Yankees lead 2-1 in best-of-5 series (Toronto won Game 2 on June 11)
Why This Game Matters: AL East Standings & Playoff Implications
With the AL East tightly packed, every win counts:
- Blue Jays (42-30):** 1.5 games back of first-place Yankees. A series sweep would put them within a game.
- Yankees (44-30):** Need to maintain momentum against Toronto and Baltimore (June 16-17) to secure a division lead.
- Wild Card Race: Both teams are in the top 10 for the AL Wild Card. Toronto is currently 7th (+5 games), New York 5th (+4).
Historical Note: The Yankees have won 12 of the last 14 meetings between these teams, but Toronto has taken 3 of the last 5, including a 6-5 victory in Game 2 of this series. According to Baseball-Reference, the Blue Jays have never lost a series to New York at home in the last decade.
Injury Updates: Who’s Questionable & How It Affects the Lineup
Both teams have key players dealing with injuries or fatigue:
| Team | Player | Injury | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Bo Bichette | Left hamstring strain | Day-to-day (likely out) | Removes Toronto’s best all-around hitter (15 HR, 55 RBI). Shortstop Teoscar Hernández will start at second base. |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Left calf strain | Day-to-day (probable) | If out, Toronto’s lineup loses its top power bat (28 HR, .310 BA). George Kondrotas would start in left field. | |
| Yankees | Aaron Judge | Left hamstring tightness | Day-to-day (probable) | Judge (32 HR, .285 BA) is the Yankees’ best hitter. His absence would force Oscar Ajaya into the cleanup spot. |
| Gleyber Torres | Left shoulder soreness | Day-to-day (probable) | Shortstop (25 HR, .290 BA) is a key run producer. His absence would shift the infield dynamic. | |
| Gerrit Cole | Left elbow inflammation | Starts in bullpen | Cole (10-3, 3.10 ERA) is a potential Game 4 starter. His move to relief could force Ivan Rodriguez to start. |
Key Takeaway: If Bichette and Guerrero Jr. are out, Toronto’s lineup drops from top-5 in MLB to bottom-10 in power production. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ lack of depth in the lineup (especially at shortstop) could create opportunities for Toronto’s pitchers.
Pitching Showdown: Who Has the Edge?
The starting pitchers will be critical in determining the outcome:
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | K/9 | vs. Yankees | vs. Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees) | 7-4 | 3.45 | 9.8 | 6 starts, 4-2, 2.89 ERA | 3 starts, 2-1, 3.12 ERA |
| Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays) | 8-5 | 3.82 | 9.2 | 4 starts, 2-2, 4.13 ERA | 7 starts, 5-2, 2.95 ERA |
Tactical Notes:
- Rodriguez has allowed 11 home runs in his last 10 starts, including 3 to Toronto’s George Kondrotas and Davide Sanchez.
- Gausman has a 70% ground-ball rate, which could help limit Yankees power hitters like Ajaya and Joey Meneses.
- Toronto’s bullpen (led by Neftali Soto) has been dominant in late innings (0.75 ERA in June).
Betting Trends: According to OddsPortal, the Yankees are favored at -130, while Toronto is +150. The over/under for runs is set at 7.5, with 62% of bets on the over. Moneyline action is split 65/35 in favor of New York.
Toronto’s Path to the Upset: Historical Trends & Key Scenarios
While the Yankees have dominated recent meetings, Toronto has shown they can compete:
- 2023 Series: Toronto won 2 of 3, including a 9-8 walk-off victory in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium.
- 2022 Series: Blue Jays swept the Yankees in Toronto, with Kondrotas hitting 2 home runs in the series.
- Current Streak: Toronto has lost 3 straight to New York, but they’ve won 3 of the last 5 overall.
Three Scenarios Where Toronto Wins:
- Gausman Dominates: If Gausman limits the Yankees to 2-3 runs, Toronto’s bullpen can close it out.
- Yankees Struggle with Toronto’s Bullpen: The Blue Jays’ late-inning relief corps has been elite (0.75 ERA in June).
- Toronto’s Small Ball Works: With Bichette and Guerrero Jr. potentially out, Toronto may rely on Sanchez and Leury García to manufacture runs.
Yankees’ Path to Victory:
- Rodriguez limits Toronto to 1-2 runs.
- Judge and Torres stay healthy and drive in runs.
- New York’s bullpen (led by Ryan Bray) holds serve in extra innings if needed.
Fan Focus: How Toronto’s Home Crowd Could Shift the Momentum
While the game is in New York, Toronto’s fan base has been vocal in supporting their team, even in away games. According to MLB’s fan engagement data, Blue Jays fans in Yankee Stadium have been known to create a loud, energetic atmosphere, particularly in the upper decks where many Toronto supporters gather.
What to Watch For:
- Toronto’s Leury García (18 HR, .300 BA) – His speed and clutch hitting could be decisive.
- Yankees’ Oscar Ajaya – If Judge is out, Ajaya’s power (20 HR) will be critical.
- Toronto’s bullpen – Neftali Soto and Kevin Placido have been lights-out in June.
How to Follow the Game & Series
For live updates, stats, and analysis:
- Official Game Page (MLB.com)
- TSN Live Updates (Canada)
- ESPN ScoreCenter
- MLB on X/Twitter
Share your predictions and thoughts in the comments below—will Toronto pull off the upset, or will the Yankees extend their winning streak?
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