INDIAN WELLS, Calif. – Daniil Medvedev delivered a stunning performance Saturday, defeating World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6(3) in the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open. The victory snapped Alcaraz’s 16-match winning streak to begin the 2026 season and secured Medvedev’s place in the final against Jannik Sinner. It was a match where Medvedev rediscovered his top form, a level reminiscent of his 2021 peak, according to post-match analysis.
The result at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden marks a significant upset in the early stages of the 2026 season. Alcaraz, who had been enjoying an undefeated run, appeared surprised by Medvedev’s aggressive tactics and precision from the start. “I played incredible tennis, especially on the key points,” Medvedev said after the match, as reported by the ATP Tour.
Medvedev’s strategy centered on attacking Alcaraz’s second serve, a challenging approach given the Spaniard’s accuracy, but one the Russian executed with remarkable consistency. He painted lines with his serves, forcing Alcaraz to question calls even with the aid of electronic line-calling. The first set was decisively claimed by Medvedev, representing only the fourth set Alcaraz has dropped all year.
The second set proved more competitive. Alcaraz briefly gained a 3-1 lead, but Medvedev battled back, denying the Spaniard two set points at 4-5. His composure under pressure was a defining factor, allowing him to force a tiebreak. Alcaraz had previously enjoyed success in tiebreaks this year, but Medvedev proved too strong, securing the victory and avenging previous losses to Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final in both 2023 and 2024.
The match wasn’t without its tactical nuances. Alcaraz struggled to implement his preferred game plan, with drop shots and net approaches proving ineffective during crucial moments. Medvedev capitalized, winning 74 percent (23 of 31) of his second serve points and converting both break point opportunities he created, according to Infosys ATP Stats. He also won four of the five break points he faced overall.
The ATP Tour reported that Medvedev received a performance rating of 9.0 for his showing, whereas Alcaraz earned an 8.2. While a strong performance for Alcaraz, it underscored the dominance Medvedev displayed, a level of play comparable to his best form in 2021 when he was considered by many to be the premier hard-court player in the world.
This victory signals a potential return to form for Medvedev, who has already secured titles in Brisbane and Dubai this season. He will now face Jannik Sinner in the Indian Wells final on Sunday, after Sinner defeated Alexander Zverev 6-2, 6-4 in his semi-final match. The final promises to be a compelling contest between two of the sport’s rising stars.
For Alcaraz, the loss brings an end to a remarkable winning streak and serves as a reminder of the challenges he faces in maintaining his position at the top of the men’s game. He will now turn his attention to the upcoming Miami Open, where he will be looking to rebound and add to his points tally. Last year, Alcaraz suffered an early exit in Miami, losing in his opening match to David Goffin, a result he will undoubtedly be keen to avoid this time around.
Interestingly, prior to the tournament, Alcaraz himself alluded to the difficulty of facing Medvedev, stating, “It seems like I play against Roger Federer in every round.” This comment, as reported by El Correo, proved prescient as Medvedev delivered a performance that recalled the brilliance of the Swiss legend.
The match also saw Carlos Alcaraz surpass Roger Federer’s career winning percentage. According to Yahoo Sports, Alcaraz’s record now stands at 296-65, translating to a win rate of .8199, edging out Federer’s career mark of .8198. Only Novak Djokovic (.8327), Rafael Nadal (.8259), and Bjorn Borg (.8238) currently hold higher career winning percentages among ATP players with at least 200 matches played.
The Indian Wells final between Medvedev and Sinner is scheduled for Sunday, and will be a key indicator of form as the tour moves onto the clay court season. Alcaraz will be looking to quickly put this defeat behind him as he prepares for Miami and the challenges that lie ahead.
What’s next for Alcaraz? He’ll be aiming to make a strong showing at the Miami Open, which begins next week, and regain momentum after this unexpected setback. The tournament presents a valuable opportunity for him to accumulate points and solidify his position as the world’s top-ranked player.
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