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The first month has passed since the appointment of the government, which is a good opportunity to take stock. To the various prosperity indices, let’s add one new one, which measures the main thing, according to which the incoming coalition works so far – how much the two smaller parties can jump out and how well the prime minister manages to moderate them.
In the words of the folk saying, how much the wolf is eaten and the goat remains whole. In this game, the wolf’s satiety is measured by the success of the SPD and Motorists. The integrity of the goat is the extent to which the Czech Republic remains a decent country with the perspective of a place where people can still live well and safely in uncertain times.
In some moments it was possible to combine the interests of the wolf and the goat, but often not. The political reality is that both smaller parties are mainly causing problems and Andrej Babiš is guarding the goat. His only hope is his sanity. But he needs an ally, not least because of his immunity, so he retreats a lot.
The value of the index is of course subjective. It depends on the political preferences of the observer, everyone has a different pain threshold. For the sake of illustration, let’s say that the index started at 100 before the election and that the goat would be eaten to zero when Babiš retreated to the extreme. That is, to things like a referendum on EU membership or a complete attachment to Russia instead of Ukraine.
There is still a long way to go. But part of the goat is already eaten. What and how did her index move the most?
Division of Ministries (95) The division of seats was negotiated in a flash and extremely disadvantageous for the ANO movement. Seven posts for two smaller parties compared to nine for ANO far exceeded their wildest dreams and mathematical habits with regard to the election result. The blackmail ability of the election winner became apparent very quickly.
Government program (90) In the field of foreign policy, the text gives the impression as if there is no foreign country. The president’s advice on how to improve the document was ignored. Fortunately, ANO won a lot on this point. The declaration is to a large extent a copy of the program of the largest party, it mentions the extreme ideas of smaller parties only marginally, in non-binding platitudes. It explicitly excludes the referendum on the EU and NATO.
Okamura in the House of Commons (80) After the elections, Babiš assured that the SPD would be a harmless party that would take him at his word. Tomio Okamura’s behavior at the head of the House does not correspond to this at all, as was fully demonstrated in his New Year’s speech. Babiš did not defend himself in any way, he rejected the Ukrainian ambassador’s complaints and instead of distancing himself, it was as if he himself was inspired by Okamura when he had the Ukrainian flag unnecessarily removed from the Government Office this week.
Purges in ministries (75) Only very tamely did Babiš speak out against the personnel upheavals in the ministries, which were mainly led by the Motorists. At the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is talk of the biggest personnel purge since the revolution, which will threaten the key office’s pro-Western ties. If there is even a rewriting of the service law, as a group of MPs from smaller parties quickly proposed (and the government was in favor of this week), the one-time excess will become a systemic failure.
V EU s Orban from Fice (65) Anyone who considers the survival of a strong Ukraine and European unity to be the basic security insurance for the Czech Republic experienced the greatest disillusionment at the pre-Christmas EU summit. From the main camp, which tries to maintain unity in support of Kyiv, Babiš defected to Slovakia and Hungary. He did not sign the main thing, i.e. the guarantees for Ukraine. Big mistake.
Ammunition Initiative Lives (70) It is a small satisfaction that, despite the threats of ANO and SPD, the successful Czech project to help supply the Ukrainian army does not end. Although the Czech Republic will no longer contribute to ammunition purchases, that was never its role, it was always mainly about organization. This is an insignificant concession so that the wolves from the SPD have something to present, but fortunately nothing much changes in practice.
Turk out of the game? (75) Perhaps even the protracted escapade with Filip Turk’s ministerial nomination will remain on the level of a devoured wolf and a whole goat. Although Babiš proposed him in the end, the president – on the verge of constitutionality – does not appoint him. The important thing is that Babiš will not continue to fight for an unacceptable Turk with a competence lawsuit at the Constitutional Court, and the Motorists are probably already giving up their fight.
As has already been said, everyone has to assess the extent of the decline of decent political culture and pro-Western orientation. So far, the goat and wolf index has fallen by a quarter, which is not the best balance for the first month – or a quarter of a year after the elections.
There is somewhere to go down and somewhere to go up. Betting on Babiš as a savior is of course a gamble. But no one else is available, so we can only hope. When he has immunity in his pocket, maybe he will find his better and stronger self.
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