Catalan pro-independence voters who previously walked away from the ballot box are weighing whether to return for the upcoming November 29 general election, ara.cat reported. During the height of the political movement known as the Procés, between 2012 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Catalan regional parliamentary elections commanded higher turnout than balloting for the national Congress of Deputies in Madrid. That dynamic inverted traditional electoral habits, creating a distinct group of voters who cast ballots locally but routinely sat out Spanish general elections.
The Rise of Pro-Independence Abstention
As the Procés wound down and local political actors shifted toward negotiation with the Spanish state, discontent simmered within the independence movement. A faction of the sovereignty movement actively campaigned for voter abstention, most notably ahead of the July 23, 2023, general election and subsequent regional votes. Organizers framed staying home as a direct rebuke of ongoing negotiations and compromise strategies.
Those calls left a mark on turnout figures across Catalonia. With the exception of the 2023 general election, participation rates in recent cycles have failed to climb past 56%, hovering near historical lows. Post-election statistical models calculated that more than half a million pro-independence voters skipped the 2023 national vote, following a similar pattern of disengagement observed during the 2019 contest.
Discontent Centers on Pro-Independence Political Parties
Data from regional barometer surveys compiled by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió indicate that these abstentionists lean toward the political center and center-right. They appear most frequently among younger adults and elderly populations. Geographically, while their relative density peaks in Central Catalonia, more than half of these non-voters reside in the densely populated areas of Barcelonès, the Vallesos, Baix Llobregat, and Maresme.
Surveys show that anger directed at the democratic system itself has subsided slightly, but deep-seated frustration with pro-independence political parties remains intact. Abstainers frequently cite two primary complaints: a feeling that no existing party represents their views, and a desire to register a protest vote against politicians and institutions.
Returning to the Polls on November 29
Despite their frustration, these voters have not completely disconnected from public life. Most retain a high level of political awareness, follow current events closely, and remain willing to participate in political protests. That ongoing engagement leaves open the possibility of a return to the ballot box.
Polls indicate that roughly 45% of these pro-independence abstainers state they will very likely cast a ballot on November 29. The remaining majority has not ruled out participating entirely, showing signs of renewed activation as election day approaches. Whether this group ultimately decides to express its dissatisfaction through a ballot rather than an empty seat remains one of the central questions of the upcoming election.
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