The Seattle Seahawks stand as 11.5-point favorites to defeat the Arizona Cardinals in a rare double-digit spread for an NFL division matchup, according to PenseBet data. Kickoff for the Week 9 NFC West clash is set for Sunday, November 8, 2026, at Lumen Field, with local kickoff scheduled for 4:25 PM ET (22:25 Central European Time). Moneyline markets place the Cardinals at +525 and the Seahawks at -525.
Seahawks Seek Bounce-Back After Chicago Loss
Seattle enters the weekend with an even 4-4 record following a 34-17 home defeat against Chicago. In that Monday night game, the Seahawks mustered just 252 yards of total offense while allowing the Bears to control the ball for over 35 minutes. Sam Darnold finished with 188 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and absorbed three sacks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the focal point of the offense, logging 64 receptions, 985 yards, and nine touchdowns through eight games, which includes a dominant 155-yard, three-touchdown performance against Arizona back in Week 2. Cooper Kupp added a touchdown on his lone target against Chicago, underlining an offense heavily reliant on its primary weapons. Operating on just six days of rest following their Monday night outing, the Seahawks now face weather forecasts projecting temperatures around 11 degrees Celsius with a risk of rain in Seattle. Earlier in the season, Seattle secured victories by margins of 13-10 against New England, 31-7 in Arizona with Drew Lock stepping in for Sam Darnold, 30-23 against the Chargers, and 20-3 against Kansas City. Meanwhile, four other matchups resulted in defeats, including setbacks by margins of three points or fewer against Washington, San Francisco, and Denver.
Cardinals Adjust With Minshew Under Center
Arizona travels to Lumen Field with a 3-5 record, following a 33-30 overtime victory in Dallas where the team rallied after falling behind 17-3. That comeback prompted Mike LaFleur to name Gardner Minshew the starting quarterback over Jacoby Brissett, with Carson Beck sliding to the number two role. Minshew ignited the offense against the Cowboys by completing 17 of 23 passes for 188 yards and three touchdowns without an interception across four consecutive touchdown drives. Trey McBride leads the team with 66 receptions, 544 yards, and five touchdowns, while Tyler Allgeier is coming off a 147-yard rushing performance on 11 carries. Defensively, the Cardinals look to pressure Darnold with an aggressive pass rush that has accumulated 19 sacks, led by Josh Sweat. Arizona’s three victories this season have all come on the road, consisting of a 26-14 win against the Chargers, an 18-16 win against the Rams, and the 33-30 overtime win in Dallas, though road losses to San Francisco and the Giants have highlighted the squad’s limitations.
Simulations Favor Seahawks over Arizona by Large Margin
Independent simulations from Dimers assign the Seahawks an 81.2% win probability, projecting a final score around 27-16 in favor of Seattle. Opening markets list the spread at 10.5 to 11.5 points, with the total over/under set at 45 points. While Seattle secured a 31-7 victory in Arizona during Week 2, the team has rarely won by wide margins this season. Only two of Seattle’s four victories have exceeded an 11-point margin, and just one such win came at home. Dimers notes that the point spread sits right at 10.5 (-108 for Seattle, -102 for Arizona) with equal 50.0% simulation splits on the spread, alongside simulated point totals breaking down to 47.0% for the over and 53.0% for the under at the 45-point threshold. Weather conditions and a short recovery week could further narrow the gap as the Cardinals attempt to cover the large handicap under their newly installed quarterback.
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