Joe Burrow Overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP Betting Favorite

Joe Burrow has taken over as the betting favorite to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award, overtaking Josh Allen at the midpoint of the season, ESPN Deportes reported.

Burrow sits at +210 odds at DraftKings after throwing 16 touchdown passes across his last four games. He edged past Allen, who held the preseason and early-season favorite spot at +240, and retained the top position following Buffalo’s Monday night win against Minnesota.

“We’ve continued to dial his number down as he keeps shining on the scoreboard and building his MVP case week after week,” Joey Feazel, head of football betting at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN.

Burrow's ascent to favorite status increases sportsbook financial risk because of his multi-season popularity among bettors. Before the season started, the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback drew the highest ticket count at BetMGM.

Feazel said that Burrow represented the lone meaningful financial liability among the top three preseason favorites. Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook operations at DraftKings, described Burrow as a player who draws steady betting action without necessarily being the worst-case scenario for the book.

“I’d say Burrow is probably the most consistently bet player from the start,” Avello told ESPN. “[Burrow] doesn’t net us a win, but it’s not our worst-case scenario either.”

That worst-case financial scenario belongs to Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, whose odds swung wildly due to erratic performances, a four-interception game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and a three-game injury absence.

Williams trades at 16-to-1 odds at DraftKings, ranking sixth on the board, but he drew a league-high 12.2% of total MVP tickets at BetMGM, with Burrow second at 11.1%.

“Caleb is the one who has seen the most dramatic movement in his numbers,” Feazel said. “Williams is the guy we’d most want to avoid, as bettors have accumulated the most financial liability on him.”

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (+425), Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (+650), and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+900) round out the top six favorites at DraftKings. Avello also noted support for Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff at 45-to-1 odds.