Week 4 NFL betting odds and computer projections reveal tight point spreads, key matchups, and projected scores across the league, featuring simulated game outcomes from modeling systems and power ratings as games unfold through Sunday, October 4, 2026.
The Week 4 NFL slate brings high-stakes matchups across the league, anchored by a battle of AFC West unbeatens between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Computer projections and power ratings have locked in win probabilities and point totals for every game on the schedule, giving bettors a comprehensive look at where the value lies against the spread.
Simulations Project Narrow Margins in Key Contests
Using a blended model combining four NFL power ratings—including ESPN’s FPI and FTN Fantasy’s DVOA rankings—alongside 10,000 game simulations, analytical projections point to narrow margins in several key contests. For the international matchup in London, the Indianapolis Colts face the Washington Commanders, where market lines have Indianapolis favored by four points while power ratings view the game closer to a pick ’em. The model projects a final score of Colts 26, Commanders 25, handing Washington the cover as underdogs.
In another marquee divisional showdown, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders. While the Raiders enter with newfound confidence and a top turnover differential, the SportsLine projection model sets Kansas City as the 4.5-point favorite and picks the Chiefs to cover in 59 percent of simulations with a projected score of Chiefs 29, Raiders 21. The Chiefs feature a much-improved run game led by Kenneth Walker III, alongside Patrick Mahomes leveling back up to MVP-caliber standards under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
Baltimore Ravens Offense Dominates Tennessee Titans
Defensive metrics continue to dictate value across the board. The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals in a matchup featuring high defensive efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens host the Tennessee Titans with an 11.5-point spread. Baltimore’s offense ranks third in DVOA at +28.1 percent while averaging 30.7 points per game. The computer projection favors the Ravens at 34-20, covering the double-digit spread in 56 percent of simulations. Tennessee enters the matchup at 0-3, scoring 12.3 points per game with one of the league’s worst special teams units, while Baltimore’s defense is only average, leaving room for Tennessee to reach 17 points.
Another tight matchup features the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Los Angeles Rams in a game between two teams looking to bounce back. The Rams are favored by three points on the road with an over/under set at 42.5, though Los Angeles has already ruled out defensive tackle Aaron Donald due to a back injury.
Projected Scores Across the Week 4 Slate
| Matchup | Spread | Projected Score |
|---|---|---|
| Colts vs. Commanders | Colts -3.5 | Colts 32, Commanders 27 |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | Cardinals -1 | Cardinals 25, Giants 23 |
| Texans vs. Cowboys | Texans -2.5 | Texans 32, Cowboys 23 |
| Packers vs. Buccaneers | Packers -4 | Packers 23, Buccaneers 21 |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | Bengals -2.5 | Jaguars 28, Bengals 27 |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Rams -3 | Rams 23, Eagles 21 |
| Bills vs. Patriots | Bills -6.5 | Bills 28, Patriots 20 |
| Bears vs. Jets | Bears -3.5 | Bears 31, Jets 21 |
| Ravens vs. Titans | Ravens -11.5 | Ravens 34, Titans 20 |
| Vikings vs. Dolphins | Vikings -11.5 | Vikings 32, Dolphins 15 |
| 49ers vs. Broncos | 49ers -2.5 | 49ers 23, Broncos 21 |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | Chiefs -4.5 | Chiefs 29, Raiders 21 |
| Seahawks vs. Chargers | Seahawks -7 | Seahawks 29, Chargers 18 |
| Lions vs. Panthers | Lions -3.5 | Lions 29, Panthers 26 |
| Saints vs. Falcons | Saints -2.5 | Saints 25, Falcons 24 |
The action kicked off on Thursday night when the Cleveland Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24 as three-point home underdogs, improving to 3-1 on the season.
