Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith faces a rare statistical reality and historical NFL draft precedent as evaluators weigh whether a pass-catcher can go No. 1 overall for the first time since 1996. While evaluators routinely praise his rare physical traits and collegiate dominance in Columbus, league draft tendencies heavily favor quarterbacks, offensive tackles, and edge rushers for the top selection.
How Jeremiah Smith Overcame Iowa Defensive Focus
Iowa committed its defensive game plan entirely to neutralizing Jeremiah Smith, deploying extra defenders to bracket the wide receiver throughout the afternoon. Despite the blanket coverage, Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns to lift the Buckeyes to a 31-14 victory, extending the program’s undefeated run. Kyle Bonagura of ESPN reported that the performance cemented Smith’s status at the top of draft boards.
The outing broke Ohio State career records for both receptions and receiving touchdowns, completing what Pro Football Focus described as the program’s receiving “triple crown.” According to a report by the Buckeyes-focused site at Sports Illustrated, Smith reached 36 career touchdown receptions, closing in on Braylon Edwards’ Big Ten record of 39. Reflecting on his standing in the sport after the win, Smith outlined his personal standard directly. “Whether it’s Heisman voters or whoever it is, I’ve got to let them know I’m the best player in America. I’ve got to put myself in that position,” Smith said.
Why Draft Evaluators Value the Sophomore Above the Board
Scouting networks have rapidly adjusted their projections to reflect Smith’s production. Pro Football Focus placed him at No. 1 on its overall big board and declared him “exempt from upward evaluation until further notice.” James Fragoza of Pro Football Network wrote that Smith “could run exclusively go-routes and still be the first overall pick,” while Jordan Reid of ESPN noted that the sophomore might command the highest evaluation grade he has ever assigned to a wide receiver.
That high praise is accompanied by sobering historical context. Reid estimated Smith’s chances of actually going No. 1 overall at roughly 10 percent, noting that the projection is a reflection of positional value and franchise needs rather than a knock on the player. Keyshawn Johnson in 1996 remains the last wide receiver selected with the first overall pick, with elite contemporaries like Calvin Johnson going second and Larry Fitzgerald going third.
Projecting the 2027 Draft Board and Positional Value
Reid’s evaluation model looks past game tape to examine the draft order and the specific positional needs of teams holding early selections. Franchises picking at the very top without a dire need at quarterback—such as potential scenarios involving teams like the Buccaneers, Chargers, or Giants—would represent the clearest path for a non-quarterback to capture the top spot.
Conversely, if a franchise holding the premier pick requires a passer, a deep group of collegiate signal-callers stands ready to challenge for the honor. Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Oregon’s Dante Moore, Notre Dame’s C.J. Carr, and Miami’s Darian Mensah occupy those vital conversations alongside elite defensive prospects like Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons. Pro Football Focus adjusted its evaluations upward for Carr following his recent performances, keeping the quarterback market fluid at the top of boards.
Kyle Crabbs of AtoZ Sports highlighted minor technical critiques in his scouting breakdown, noting that hip flexibility on sharp-angle breaks represents a relative area for refinement. Even so, Crabbs emphasized that elite vertical speed, physical catch-point dominance, and a massive catch radius override those concerns, drawing stylistic comparisons to Julio Jones.
The Three-Year Rule Shaping the Timeline
Smith arrived at Columbus as the top overall prospect in the 2024 recruiting class out of Chaminade-Madonna High School in Hollywood, Florida, according to 247Sports. He immediately captured Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors, earned first-team All-American recognition, and secured a national championship in his debut season, following it up with unanimous All-American nods as a sophomore.
Because NFL rules mandate a three-year waiting period following a player’s high school graduation before entering the professional ranks, Smith was ineligible for the most recent draft cycle. Discussing the rule with Sports Illustrated in the summer of 2025, Smith acknowledged the wait with characteristic calm. “You can’t really control the 3-year rule… whatever it is,” Smith said. “I’m just out here having fun.”
The production during that waiting period continues to mount. Pro Football Network figures show Smith accumulating 163 receptions, 2,558 yards, and 27 touchdowns across his first two collegiate seasons. Earlier in the autumn against Illinois, he recorded 12 catches for 217 yards and four touchdowns, joining Terry Glenn as the only Ohio State receivers to top 200 yards and four scores in a single game.
Smith becomes eligible to declare for the NFL draft in April 2027. If the franchise holding the first selection does not require a quarterback, a precedent from 1996 will finally break.
Worth a look
