Airports across Europe warn that jet fuel supplies could run dry within three weeks if the ongoing conflict in Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed. The looming shortage threatens widespread flight cancellations for travelers heading into the summer holiday season.
Europe Faces a Three-Week Jet Fuel Crunch as Strait of Hormuz Stays Choked
European aviation faces a severe fuel bottleneck as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe warned EU energy and transport commissioners that the bloc sits just three weeks away from critical shortages if tanker deliveries do not resume through the vital Gulf shipping lane.
The disruption stems from military actions ordered by the United States and Israel against Iran, which effectively closed the strategic strait.
Smaller regional airports face the most immediate danger because they rely heavily on local deliveries and limited on-site reserves. Rico Luman, a senior economist covering transport at investment bank ING, noted that typical airport stocks cover only four to five weeks of operations. Airlines are expected to cut less popular leisure routes first as reserves dwindle in the coming weeks.
Soaring Global Jet Fuel Prices Drive Up Airfares Worldwide
The fuel squeeze has sent procurement costs climbing dramatically across the global airline industry. International Air Transport Association figures show that global jet fuel prices more than doubled compared with last year, hitting $1,650 a ton by the end of last week. Asia experienced the most severe price escalation at 163 percent year over year, while European prices surged by 138 percent.
Major carriers are already adjusting operations to absorb the shock. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary announced that Europe’s largest carrier is considering trimming 10 percent of its flight schedule. Smaller UK carriers have already taken action, with Skybus halting its Newquay-to-Gatwick route and Aurigny trimming Channel Islands journeys.
For consumers planning trips, ticket prices have climbed sharply ahead of the peak summer travel window. Travel booking app Hopper notes that jet fuel typically accounts for 20 to 30 percent of an airline’s operating expenses, making it a significant driver for fare increases according to Hopper lead economist Hayley Berg.
Travelers Face Difficult Booking Choices Amid Market Volatility
Search engine data compiled by Kayak shows that the average round-trip domestic flight in the United States cost $361 as of April 20, marking an 8 percent increase from February 23 and a 19 percent rise from the previous year CNBC. International routes recorded even steeper climbs, with average round-trip fares reaching $1,097—a 42 percent jump from February 23 levels.
Travel experts urge consumers to lock in reservations rather than gambling on a swift diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Katy Nastro, a travel expert at booking platform Going, warned that waiting for peace talks carries substantial financial risk given the unpredictable trajectory of the hostilities.
“Regardless of whether you’re looking to travel in two weeks, two months or even looking ahead to fall travel, waiting to buy airfare … in hopes the conflict will end soon is honestly riskier than some of the fashion choices we made as teens: Our future self is not going to be happy about it.”
Katy Nastro, Travel Expert at Going
Broader Economic Fallout and Macroeconomic Projections
Beyond aviation, the wider economic repercussions of the conflict continue to ripple across global markets. The World Trade Organization indicated that sustained high oil and gas prices could reduce forecasted 2026 global GDP growth by 0.3 percent. Heavy energy importers in Europe are expected to absorb the heaviest blow, with regional economic growth projected to run at least one percentage point below prior expectations.
Diplomatic efforts to unblock regional shipping lanes and stabilize energy supplies remain fluid. While U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, Brent crude oil prices remained at about $96 a barrel amid concerns over whether it would hold. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Washington would consider removing sanctions on some Iranian oil supplies to ease the energy shock.
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