The race for the 2024 Ballon d’Or has entered its final phase, with the global football landscape shifting following the conclusion of major international tournaments. While Lionel Messi’s historic 2023 victory remains a baseline for modern standards, the criteria for the 2024 award—now covering the European season rather than the calendar year—have placed younger talents and consistent performers in the spotlight, according to criteria set by France Football.
The Shift in Ballon d’Or Criteria
The Ballon d’Or has undergone significant structural changes in recent years. Since 2022, the award has been judged based on the European football season (August to July) rather than the calendar year. This adjustment is designed to better align the voting process with the conclusion of the UEFA Champions League and major international tournaments. For the 2024 edition, voters are instructed to prioritize individual performance and the “decisive and impressive character” of the nominees, followed by team trophies and the player’s class and fair play.
The inclusion of the 2024 UEFA European Championship and the Copa América has fundamentally altered the trajectory of the rankings. Unlike previous cycles, where a single tournament performance could heavily influence voters, the current rubric emphasizes sustained excellence throughout the club season.
Lamine Yamal and the Rise of the Next Generation
Lamine Yamal has emerged as a significant contender for recognition in the 2024 voting cycle. Following his instrumental role in Spain’s UEFA Euro 2024 victory, the 17-year-old FC Barcelona winger has captured international attention for his statistical output and influence on the pitch. According to official UEFA match data, Yamal recorded the most assists at the tournament, setting a record for the youngest player to ever feature in and win a European Championship final.
While veterans have historically dominated the Ballon d’Or, Yamal’s rapid ascent represents a broader trend of tactical reliance on younger wingers. His performance metrics—specifically his successful take-on percentage and chance creation—have drawn comparisons to the most elite playmakers in the game. His presence in the conversation signals a shift in how voters evaluate “impact” beyond traditional goal-scoring tallies.
French Contenders Facing Headwinds
French football, which had high expectations following a strong 2023, has seen its primary candidates lose momentum during the summer months. Kylian Mbappé, often considered a perennial favorite, saw his influence on the Euro 2024 campaign limited by a nose injury sustained in the opening match against Austria. Although he maintained high scoring figures during his final season at Paris Saint-Germain, the lack of a Champions League title and a subdued performance in Germany have impacted his standing among current bookmakers and analysts.
Similarly, Antoine Griezmann and other members of the French national squad faced early exits or underwhelming exits compared to their high-performance benchmarks. The “Mondial” effect—the tendency for voters to overvalue international tournament success—has historically favored players who shine in the knockout stages of the World Cup or Euros. With France’s semifinal exit, their candidates now rely heavily on club-level statistics, which, while impressive, may not be enough to overcome the trophy-laden seasons of rivals playing for clubs like Real Madrid or Manchester City.
Evaluating the Frontrunners
The current field of contenders is characterized by a mix of Champions League winners and standout individual performers. Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham remain central figures in the discourse, given their roles in securing both La Liga and the Champions League title. According to league records, both players maintained high output throughout the 2023-24 campaign, providing a consistent baseline that is often rewarded by the international jury of journalists.
The competition is further complicated by the performance of Manchester City’s Rodri, who was instrumental in his club’s Premier League title defense and Spain’s success at the Euros. His role as a defensive midfielder often faces a historical disadvantage in voting, yet his influence on team success is increasingly recognized by analysts who track possession and defensive transition metrics.
The Road to the Ceremony
The official shortlist for the 2024 Ballon d’Or is compiled by the editorial team at France Football and L’Équipe. The winner is determined by a panel of 100 international journalists representing the top 100 nations in the FIFA rankings. Each journalist selects their top five players, assigning points based on their ranking.
As the football world turns its attention to the start of the 2024-25 domestic seasons, the focus now shifts toward the official announcement of the 30-man shortlist. The ceremony is scheduled to take place in Paris later this year, where the successor to Lionel Messi will be crowned. For observers and fans, the coming weeks of league play will serve as the final context for voters as they finalize their ballots.
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