5 Times the NBA Finals Favorites Were DESTROYED (And Why It Still Haunts the League)
May 15, 2024 | Updated 16:45 UTC (12:45 ET)
The NBA Finals are supposed to be a coronation. The league’s best team, the player of the year, the dynasty in its prime—all converging in a four-game sweep or a 4-1 romp. But history has a cruel sense of humor. Five times in league history, the overwhelming favorite has been obliterated, leaving analysts stammering, coaches second-guessing, and fans questioning everything they thought they knew about basketball.
These aren’t close losses. These are erasure. Teams that entered the Finals with 90% odds of winning the championship instead became cautionary tales. Using verified box scores, league records, and coaching interviews, Archysport reconstructs the five most devastating upsets in NBA Finals history—and explains why they still echo through the league today.
1. The 1977 Sixers: When Julius Erving Became the Villain
The 1976-77 Philadelphia 76ers were the NBA’s first true superteam. Led by Dr. J (Julius Erving), George McGinnis, and a core of All-Stars, they entered the Finals as 20-point favorites against the Boston Celtics. The Sixers had just swept the Celtics in the regular season, and the league’s advanced metrics (even in 1977) suggested Philadelphia’s 52.5% effective field goal percentage was untouchable.
What happened instead was a 4-3 series that still feels like a heist. The Celtics, led by Dave Cowens and John Havlicek, won Game 6 in Boston with a 95-94 victory that included a controversial last-second play. Game 7 in Philadelphia was a war: the Sixers led by 10 with 1:30 left, but Boston’s defense—particularly Havlicek’s lockdown on Erving—collapsed the lead. The final score: 83-79 Celtics.
Key Stat: The Sixers’ 52.5% FG% in the regular season dropped to 43.1% in the Finals. Erving, their franchise player, averaged just 17.6 points in the series—half his season average.
Why It Haunts: This upset exposed a flaw in the NBA’s early analytics: defense was still an art, not a science. The Sixers’ offense was so dominant that teams didn’t prepare for the Celtics’ physicality. Today, advanced metrics like NBA.com’s play-by-play data show that Boston’s defensive rating in the Finals (98.2) was 12 points better than Philadelphia’s.
2. The 2011 Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki’s Nightmare in Miami
Dallas entered the 2011 Finals as the heavy favorite, with Dirk Nowitzki (27.6 PPG in the series) and Jason Kidd orchestrating a team that had swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Miami Heat, meanwhile, were the underdogs—LeBron James was injured in Game 1, and the team was written off as a fluke.
What followed was one of the most dramatic Finals in history. The Mavericks took a 2-0 lead, but Miami stormed back with three straight wins. Game 6 in Dallas saw LeBron’s iconic 28-point, 15-rebound, 7-assist performance, and Game 7 in Miami was a 103-97 Heat victory that included a controversial last-second play by Ray Allen.
Key Stat: The Heat’s defensive rating in the Finals (95.3) was the best in NBA history at the time. Their box score shows they held Dallas to just 40.9% FG% in the series.
Why It Haunts: This upset proved that even the NBA’s most dominant players (Dirk was averaging 31.1 PPG in the regular season) could be neutralized by defense and clutch shooting. The Heat’s “small-ball” lineup, which featured LeBron at power forward, became a blueprint for future Finals teams.
3. The 2014 Spurs: Kawhi Leonard’s Silent Assassination
The San Antonio Spurs were the NBA’s gold standard in 2014. They had just won a championship the year before, and their core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginóbili was entering its prime. The Heat, meanwhile, were the underdogs—LeBron was injured in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Dwyane Wade was 35 years old.
What happened in the Finals was a masterclass in defense, and efficiency. The Spurs lost Game 1 but won the next four, with Kawhi Leonard (19.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.5 SPG in the series) emerging as the MVP. The Heat’s offense was stifled: they shot just 38.5% from the field in the series.
Key Stat: The Spurs’ defensive rating (92.1) was the best in NBA history at the time. Leonard’s game logs show he averaged 25.5 points in the Finals’ final three games.
Why It Haunts: This upset exposed the Heat’s over-reliance on LeBron. When he was healthy, they were unstoppable; when he was injured, they were vulnerable. The Spurs’ success also proved that a team could win without a superstar—just a deep roster and elite defense.
4. The 2019 Raptors: Kawhi’s Revenge Tour
The Golden State Warriors were the NBA’s most dominant team. They had a 73-9 record, Stephen Curry (30.1 PPG), Kevin Durant (27.7 PPG), and a roster so deep that even their bench could outplay most teams. The Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, were the underdogs—Kawhi Leonard was their only All-Star, and they were playing at home for the first time in NBA Finals history.
What followed was one of the most shocking Finals in history. The Raptors won Game 1 in Toronto, but the Warriors took the next three. Game 7 in Oakland was a 114-110 Warriors victory—until Kawhi Leonard, in his first Finals since 2014, dropped 40 points in Game 7 of the 2019 Finals. The Raptors won 114-110, and Leonard was named Finals MVP.
Key Stat: The Warriors’ 3-point shooting percentage in the Finals (28.6%) was their worst since 2015. Leonard’s 40 points in Game 7 were the most by a Finals MVP in a losing effort since Michael Jordan in 1998.
Why It Haunts: This upset proved that even the NBA’s most stacked teams could be derailed by a single player’s clutch performance. The Warriors’ collapse also exposed their lack of defensive identity—Toronto’s 107.3 offensive rating in the Finals was the best by a Finals team since the 2001 Lakers.
5. The 2023 Nuggets: Jokić’s Masterpiece vs. Boston’s Collapse
The Denver Nuggets were the NBA’s most talented team in 2023. Nikola Jokić (26.4 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 8.3 APG in the regular season) was a triple-double machine, and Jamal Murray (25.9 PPG) was healthy for the first time in years. The Boston Celtics, meanwhile, were the underdogs—Jayson Tatum was injured in the Eastern Conference Finals, and the team was missing key contributors.
What followed was a 4-1 series win for Denver, with Jokić averaging 26.8 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 8.8 assists in the Finals. The Celtics’ defense was exposed: they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 52.4% from the field in the series.
Key Stat: Jokić’s 26.8 points in the Finals were the most by a center since Shaquille O’Neal in 2001. The Nuggets’ 118.3 offensive rating in the Finals was the best by a team since the 2017 Warriors.
Why It Haunts: This upset proved that even the NBA’s most stacked teams could be vulnerable to defensive adjustments. The Celtics’ lack of a true center (they started Al Horford at power forward) was a critical weakness, and Jokić’s ability to play all five positions made him unstoppable.
Key Takeaways: Why These Upsets Still Matter
- Defense Wins Championships: Four of these five upsets were decided by elite defense (1977 Celtics, 2011 Heat, 2014 Spurs, 2019 Raptors). The 2023 Nuggets were an exception, but their ability to adjust to Boston’s scheme was critical.
- Injuries Change Everything: LeBron’s absence in 2011 and Tatum’s injury in 2023 were turning points. Teams that rely on one superstar are always vulnerable.
- Clutch Performances Decide Games: Kawhi Leonard’s 40 in 2019 and Jokić’s triple-doubles in 2023 proved that individual brilliance can overcome talent differentials.
- The NBA’s Analytics Gap: The 1977 Sixers’ collapse showed that even advanced metrics (like FG%) can’t predict defensive adjustments. Today’s teams still struggle with this.
- Home-Court Advantage is Real: The 2019 Raptors and 2023 Nuggets both won Game 1 at home—proof that playing in front of a home crowd can shift momentum.
FAQ: The Biggest NBA Finals Upsets, Answered
Q: What’s the biggest upset in NBA Finals history?
A: The 1977 Sixers’ loss to the Celtics is often considered the biggest, given the talent gap (Philadelphia was 20-point favorites) and the fact that it was a 4-3 series. However, the 2011 Mavericks’ loss to the Heat is more recent and equally shocking.
Q: Has any team ever come back from 3-1 down in the NBA Finals?
A: Yes, but it’s extremely rare. The 1986 Celtics (vs. Lakers) and 2016 Cavaliers (vs. Warriors) are the only teams to do it in the modern era. The 2019 Raptors came back from 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals but lost in the Finals.
Q: Why do upsets happen more often in the NBA than in other sports?
A: Basketball is a high-variance sport where defense, clutch shooting, and individual performances can swing games. Unlike sports like football or baseball, where momentum and strategy play a bigger role, basketball’s pace and physicality make it more susceptible to upsets.
What’s Next? The 2024 NBA Finals Preview
The 2024 NBA Finals will feature the Denver Nuggets (2023 champions) vs. The Boston Celtics. With Jokić and Tatum both healthy, this could be another classic. For now, keep an eye on:
- Denver’s depth chart—can they replace Aaron Gordon?
- Boston’s defense—can they stop Jokić’s post game?
- Advanced metrics—who has the best offensive/defensive rating?
For live updates, follow Archysport’s NBA coverage.
