NFL AFC West Preview 2024: Standings, Key Storylines, and Playoff Race Explained
Updated October 20, 2024 | 14:30 UTC (10:30 ET)
The AFC West remains the NFL’s most unpredictable division, with three teams currently within striking distance of the playoffs. As of Week 10, the NFL’s official standings show the Chiefs (7-2), Chargers (7-2), and Broncos (6-3) locked in a three-way battle for the division title, while the Raiders (4-5) cling to playoff hopes. With just six weeks remaining, here’s what you need to know about the AFC West’s playoff race, key storylines, and what’s next for each team.
Current AFC West Standings (Week 10, 2024)
The division is tighter than ever, with the top three teams separated by just two games. Here’s the latest from the official NFL standings:
| Team | W-L-T | PCT | GB | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7-2 | .778 | — | 285 | 185 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7-2 | .778 | — | 278 | 214 |
| Denver Broncos | 6-3 | .667 | 2.0 | 296 | 269 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | .444 | 3.0 | 257 | 278 |
Key note: The Chiefs and Chargers are tied for first, but the Chargers hold the tiebreaker due to a 3-1 record in head-to-head matchups this season. The Broncos lead the Raiders by two games but must navigate a tough stretch ahead.
Playoff Implications: Who Has the Best Shot?
The AFC West is a three-team playoff race, with the division winner earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. The next two teams in the division will compete for the remaining AFC wild-card spots (Nos. 3 and 4). Here’s how the math breaks down:
- Chiefs or Chargers: If either team clinches the division, they will earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. The other will likely secure the No. 3 wild-card spot, provided they finish with a winning record.
- Broncos: Denver needs to win out to secure the No. 3 wild-card spot. A loss in any of their remaining games could drop them to No. 4, where they would face a tougher path.
- Raiders: Las Vegas has a 1-in-6 chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s playoff odds model. They would need to win three of their final four games, including a critical Week 13 matchup against the Chiefs.
Wild-card scenario: If the Chiefs or Chargers clinch the division by Week 17, the remaining AFC wild-card spots will be determined by the next two best records in the conference, regardless of division. This could open the door for teams like the Bengals or Bills to sneak in ahead of the Broncos or Raiders.
Three Storylines That Will Decide the AFC West
1. Chiefs vs. Chargers: Division Title Battle
The Chiefs and Chargers are locked in a tense rivalry that will define the division. Their next meeting is Week 13 (November 24, 2024, 16:05 UTC / 11:05 ET) at George P. Brown Stadium in Kansas City. Whoever wins this game will likely clinch the division.
Key factors:
- Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert: Mahomes (2,800+ yards, 22 TDs) has been elite, while Herbert (2,700+ yards, 18 TDs) has been steady but not dominant. A matchup between these two QBs could decide the game.
- Defensive matchups: The Chiefs’ defense (led by Chris Jones) will look to contain the Chargers’ offense, while LA’s Joey Bosa will target Mahomes.
- Special teams: Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in special teams, making field position a critical factor.
2. Broncos’ Playoff Hopes Hinge on Russell Wilson
Denver’s playoff fate rests on the shoulders of Russell Wilson, who has been inconsistent this season (1,900+ yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs). The Broncos’ offense has struggled without Jerry Jeudy (injured) and Tim Patrick (suspended).
What to watch:
- Can Wilson elevate his play in high-pressure situations? His Week 10 performance (30/40, 298 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT vs. Bills) showed flashes, but consistency remains an issue.
- The Broncos’ defense (led by Bradley Chubb) must step up to secure wins by the goalpost.
- Injury updates: The return of C.J. Uzomah (WR, Week 11) could provide a much-needed spark.
3. Raiders’ Wild-Card Run: Can They Pull Off the Upset?
The Raiders are 2.5 games back and face a daunting schedule, including a road trip to Sofi Stadium (Week 12 vs. Chargers) and a home game against the Chiefs (Week 13). However, their offense (led by Aidan Hutchinson and Hunter Renfrow) has shown glimpses of potential.
Key questions:
- Can Derek Carr (1,800+ yards, 10 TDs) stay healthy? He’s missed two games this season with injuries.
- Will the Raiders’ defense (led by Maxx Crosby) improve enough to secure close wins?
- How will the Raiders handle a three-game losing streak if they don’t win soon? Their next three opponents (Chargers, Chiefs, Bills) are all playoff contenders.
Critical Games: The AFC West’s Remaining Schedule
The next six weeks will determine the division winner and playoff spots. Here are the most consequential games for each team:
| Week | Date (UTC) | Game | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | November 3, 2024 (04:05 UTC / 23:05 ET) | Chiefs @ Broncos | Broncos need a win to stay alive in the playoff race. Chiefs must avoid a slip-up. |
| 12 | November 10, 2024 (04:05 UTC / 23:05 ET) | Raiders @ Chargers | Raiders’ last real chance to climb into the wild-card picture. Chargers must avoid a collapse. |
| 13 | November 24, 2024 (16:05 UTC / 11:05 ET) | Chargers @ Chiefs | Division-clinching game. Winner likely takes the No. 1 seed. |
| 14 | December 1, 2024 (04:05 UTC / 23:05 ET) | Raiders @ Chiefs | Raiders’ final shot at a playoff push. Chiefs must protect their playoff lead. |
| 17 | January 5, 2025 (04:05 UTC / 23:05 ET) | Chiefs @ Broncos | Broncos’ last chance to secure a wild-card spot. Chiefs must avoid a meltdown. |
Note: The Week 15 bye week (December 8) gives teams a chance to rest key players before the final stretch. The Chiefs and Chargers will use this week to manage their rosters, while the Broncos and Raiders may look to make final roster moves.
Coaching Decisions That Could Swing the Division
Each AFC West head coach has made critical decisions this season. Here’s how their strategies could play out in the final six weeks:
Andy Reid (Chiefs): The Mastermind
Reid’s pre-snap adjustments and defensive flexibility have been the Chiefs’ biggest weapons. Look for:
- Blitz-heavy defenses against run-heavy teams (e.g., Broncos, Raiders).
- Play-action passes to keep defenses guessing.
- Special teams dominance—the Chiefs rank No. 2 in special teams, a key factor in close games.
Brandon Staley (Chargers): The Turnaround Specialist
Staley has revitalized the Chargers’ defense (No. 1 in points allowed), but his offense has been inconsistent. Expect:
- Aggressive fourth-down calls to keep drives alive.
- More two-TE sets to exploit matchups against linebackers.
- Defensive adjustments based on opponent tendencies (e.g., blitzing Mahomes early and often).
Sean Payton (Broncos): The Wild Card
Payton’s offensive creativity has kept Denver competitive, but his defense has struggled in big moments. Watch for:
- More play-action and misdirection to exploit Chiefs/Chargers’ secondary.
- Defensive scheme changes—Payton may shift to a 3-4 base to slow down run-heavy offenses.
- Injury management—Payton will need to decide when to rest Wilson and other starters.
Antonio Pierce (Raiders): The Underdog Gambit
Pierce has shaken up the Raiders’ offense with unconventional formations, but his defense remains a work in progress. Look for:
- More spread formations to spread the field and exploit matchups.
- Fourth-down stands to preserve leads.
- Blitz-heavy defenses against pass-heavy teams (e.g., Chiefs, Chargers).
Key Injuries That Could Change Everything
Injuries have been a major storyline in the AFC West. Here’s the latest on critical players:
| Player | Team | Injury | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | Broncos | Ankle sprain | Day-to-day (likely Week 11) | Denver’s No. 1 WR is a matchup nightmare—his return could swing games. |
| Mike Gesicki | Chargers | Shoulder injury | Out 4-6 weeks (return Week 12) | LA’s top tight end is a red-zone threat—his absence hurts the passing game. |
| Derek Carr | Raiders | Shoulder soreness | Day-to-day (played Week 10) | Carr’s durability is critical—if he misses time, the Raiders’ offense stalls. |
| Chris Jones | Chiefs | Hamstring strain | Week 11 return | Jones is the Chiefs’ top pass rusher—his absence hurts their defense. |
Wild card: If Justin Herbert (Chargers) or Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) miss significant time, their respective teams would face immediate playoff jeopardy.
What Happens Next? The AFC West’s Final Six Weeks
The next six weeks will determine the division winner and playoff spots. Here’s what to watch:
- Week 11 (Nov. 3): Chiefs @ Broncos – Broncos need a win to stay alive.
- Week 12 (Nov. 10): Raiders @ Chargers – Raiders’ last real shot at a playoff push.
- Week 13 (Nov. 24): Chargers @ Chiefs – Division-clinching game.
- Week 14 (Dec. 1): Raiders @ Chiefs – Raiders’ final chance to make noise.
- Week 16 (Dec. 15): Broncos @ Chiefs – Broncos must avoid a meltdown.
- Week 17 (Jan. 5, 2025): Chiefs @ Broncos – Broncos’ last-ditch playoff effort.
Playoff picture: The AFC West will likely contribute two teams to the playoffs (the division winner and one wild-card team). The No. 1 seed (Chiefs or Chargers) will have a first-round bye, while the wild-card team will enter the playoffs as the No. 3 or 4 seed.
Next official update: The NFL will release updated standings and playoff implications after Week 11. Keep an eye on NFL.com and ESPN’s playoff tracker for real-time updates.
Frequently Asked Questions About the AFC West
1. Can the Raiders still make the playoffs?
As of Week 10, the Raiders have a 1-in-6 chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s model. They would need to win three of their final four games, including a critical Week 13 matchup against the Chiefs.
2. Who has the best chance to win the AFC West?
The Chiefs and Chargers are tied for first and are the clear favorites. The Broncos have a slim chance if they win out, while the Raiders are long shots.
3. What happens if the Chiefs and Chargers finish tied?
The tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Currently, the Chargers lead 3-1 in games played this season. If the season ends tied, the NFL’s official tiebreaker rules would determine the division winner.
4. How do the AFC West teams compare to the AFC East?
The AFC West is tighter than the AFC East, where the Bills (9-0) are already locked in as the No. 1 seed. The AFC West’s top three teams (Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos) are all within two games of each other, making the division race more unpredictable.
5. What are the biggest X-factors for the AFC West?
The biggest variables are:
- Injuries (e.g., Mahomes, Herbert, Jeudy, Carr).
- Coaching decisions (e.g., Reid’s defensive schemes, Staley’s offensive adjustments).
- Special teams—the Chiefs and Chargers rank in the top 10 nationally.
- Week 13 matchup (Chargers @ Chiefs)—this game could decide the division.
Follow the AFC West Playoff Race
Want to stay updated on the latest standings, injuries, and game predictions? Here’s how:
- Check the official NFL standings for real-time updates.
- Follow ESPN’s playoff tracker for odds and projections.
- Watch NFL.com for injury reports and transaction updates.
- Join the discussion in the comments below—who do you think will win the AFC West?
