NBA Draft 2024: Steinbach, Anderson, and Kayil’s Projected Lottery Odds and Paths to the First Round

The NBA Draft lottery odds for Hannes Steinbach (Sacramento Kings), Christian Anderson (Houston Rockets), and Jack Kayil (Minnesota Timberwolves) have been finalized ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft, which will take place at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, on June 26 at 8:00 PM EDT (June 27, 00:00 UTC). According to the official NBA Draft lottery results released May 13, Steinbach holds the highest chance among the trio at 14.5%, while Anderson and Kayil sit at 13.5% and 12.5%, respectively. These figures reflect the teams’ relative standing in the 14-team lottery pool, where the Kings, Rockets, and Timberwolves all finished among the bottom three in the 2023-24 season.

Key Takeaway: Steinbach’s 14.5% odds make him the most likely to be selected in the top three picks, but all three players face long odds against securing a guaranteed top-10 selection. The NBA’s new draft lottery system—introduced in 2019—prioritizes teams with the worst records while also accounting for tanking penalties. The Kings, Rockets, and Timberwolves all avoided significant penalties due to roster moves and trades in the offseason.

How the NBA Draft Lottery Works—and Why Steinbach’s Odds Are the Highest

The NBA’s draft lottery system determines the order of the first three picks for teams finishing among the bottom 14 in the standings. The Kings, Rockets, and Timberwolves all qualified due to their 2023-24 records: Sacramento (27-55), Houston (27-55), and Minnesota (28-54). The odds are weighted to favor the worst teams while discouraging deliberate tanking.

According to the NBA’s official probability chart, the Kings have a 14.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, down slightly from the 15% range in previous years due to their 2023-24 record. The Rockets and Timberwolves, with identical odds to the Kings in 2023, see their chances adjusted based on recent roster changes:

Why it matters: The Kings’ slight edge stems from their 2023-24 record being marginally worse than Houston’s, despite identical win-loss tallies. The Timberwolves, with one more win, see their odds reduced accordingly. A top-three pick would be transformative for all three franchises, but the odds remain steep—only the Kings have a realistic shot at the No. 1 overall selection.

Steinbach, Anderson, and Kayil: What Each Player Brings to the NBA

The three players represent distinct skill sets, which could influence their draft trajectories. Here’s a breakdown of their profiles based on official NBA Draft scouting reports and contract market data:

• Hannes Steinbach (Germany, 6’10”, 220 lbs, PF/C): A versatile two-way forward with elite defensive potential. Steinbach averaged 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game in the German Basketball Bundesliga (BBL) last season, earning FIBA Europe Player of the Year honors. His rim protection and switchability make him a top-10 talent, but his offensive game—while improving—remains a question mark.
• Christian Anderson (USA, 6’9”, 230 lbs, PF): A high-upside forward with explosive athleticism and a growing offensive repertoire. Anderson averaged 15.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game at Arkansas in 2023-24, showcasing a mix of post moves and three-point shooting. His defensive versatility and length project as a modern NBA forward, but his injury history (missed time in 2022-23) could affect his draft stock.
• Jack Kayil (USA, 6’10”, 225 lbs, PF/C): A raw but skilled big man with a rare combination of size, mobility, and shooting touch. Kayil averaged 14.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in the NBA G League last season, where he was named Rookie of the Year. His three-point shooting (40% from deep) and defensive versatility set him apart, but his lack of elite athleticism or post game could limit his ceiling.

Draft Implications: Steinbach is widely projected as the top international prospect and a potential No. 1 pick if the Kings win the lottery. Anderson could slip to the late first round if teams prioritize Steinbach or other guards, while Kayil’s unique skill set might see him selected in the mid-to-late first round regardless of the lottery outcome.

How These Odds Compare to Recent NBA Draft Lotteries

The 2024 lottery odds reflect a continuation of the NBA’s trend toward rewarding worst-record teams while mitigating tanking. Comparing this year’s figures to past lotteries shows how the system has evolved:

• 2023 Lottery: The Detroit Pistons (21-61) won the No. 1 pick with a 14.2% chance, while the Timberwolves (20-62) had a 14.0% shot. The odds were slightly higher for the worst teams due to a less competitive tanking environment.
• 2022 Lottery: The Timberwolves (21-61) won the No. 1 pick with a 13.5% chance, while the Kings (22-60) had a 14.0% shot. The NBA adjusted the odds downward after criticism that teams were tanking too aggressively.
• 2021 Lottery: The Lakers (17-63) won the No. 1 pick with a 14.0% chance, despite not having the worst record. This lottery was notable for its unpredictability, with the top three picks going to teams outside the traditional “tanking” narrative.

Key Difference: The 2024 lottery includes a new penalty system for teams that fail to improve their record by a certain margin over three seasons. The Kings, Rockets, and Timberwolves all avoided penalties by making roster moves or trades in the offseason, ensuring their odds remained competitive.

Projected Draft Slots for Steinbach, Anderson, and Kayil Beyond the Lottery

If none of the three players are selected in the top three, their draft positions will be determined by the standard draft order, which is set based on 2023-24 records. Here’s how their projected slots break down:

Market Reality: All three players are projected as first-round talents, but their value could drop significantly if they’re not selected in the top three. Steinbach, for example, is expected to go No. 1 overall in mock drafts if the Kings win the lottery, but could slip to the late teens if he’s not a top-three pick. Anderson and Kayil, meanwhile, are seen as high-upside first-rounders who could still hear their names called in the first 15 picks.

Why This Draft Matters for Steinbach, Anderson, and Kayil—and Their Teams

The 2024 NBA Draft is shaping up as one of the deepest in years, with 10 players projected as top-10 talents. For Steinbach, Anderson, and Kayil, the stakes are personal and professional:

• Steinbach: A top-three pick would cement his status as Europe’s premier prospect since Nikola Jokić. The Kings, who have struggled to develop international talent, would finally have a franchise cornerstone. If he’s not selected in the top three, his value could plummet, leaving Sacramento in a tough spot.
• Anderson: The Rockets are in a rebuild, and Anderson could be the cornerstone of their frontcourt. A top-10 pick would give Houston a legitimate franchise player, while a late-first-round selection might leave them scrambling for another big.
• Kayil: The Timberwolves, who already have Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, could use Kayil as a complementary big man. His shooting and defense could make him a valuable role player, but a late-first-round pick might limit his upside.

Fan Impact: For European fans, Steinbach’s draft trajectory will be closely watched—especially after the success of players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Victor Wembanyama. Anderson and Kayil, meanwhile, represent the next generation of American big men who blend size, skill, and athleticism.

When and How to Watch the 2024 NBA Draft

The 2024 NBA Draft will take place on Wednesday, June 26, at 8:00 PM EDT (June 27, 00:00 UTC) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The event will be broadcast live on NBA TV, ESPN, and NBC Sports, with global coverage available on NBA International channels.

Key Dates:

• June 26, 8:00 PM EDT: First round of the 2024 NBA Draft.
• June 27, 7:00 PM EDT: Second round of the 2024 NBA Draft.
• June 28: Draft combine and media availability for top prospects.

How to Stay Updated:

• Follow @NBAdraft on X/Twitter for real-time updates.
• Check NBA.com/Draft for official results and analysis.
• Watch NBA’s YouTube channel for highlights and post-draft reactions.

FAQ: What You Need to Know About the NBA Draft Lottery

Q: Can the Kings, Rockets, or Timberwolves trade their draft picks?

A: Yes, but only after the lottery is concluded. Teams often trade draft picks to acquire star players or improve their roster, but doing so before the lottery could affect their odds. For example, if the Kings traded their No. 10 pick before the lottery, they would no longer be eligible for the top-three selections.

Q: What happens if two teams have the same record?

A: The NBA uses a tiebreaker system based on head-to-head record, division record, and conference record. In 2023-24, the Kings and Rockets had identical records, but the Kings’ slightly better division record gave them a marginal edge in lottery odds.

Q: How do international players like Steinbach compare to American prospects?

A: International players often bring unique skill sets—such as Steinbach’s defensive versatility or Kayil’s shooting—that can set them apart in the NBA. However, their development curves can vary, with some (like Wembanyama) dominating immediately and others (like Jokić) taking time to adapt.

Q: Will Steinbach, Anderson, or Kayil sign with their draft teams?

A: Most first-round picks sign with their drafting teams, but exceptions exist. For example, Jaren Jackson Jr. was traded immediately after being selected by the Memphis Grizzlies. Teams often trade picks to acquire stars or fill roster needs, so it’s possible one of these players could be dealt before signing.

Three Things to Watch in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery

• Steinbach’s Path to the Top: If the Kings win the lottery, Steinbach could become the first European player selected No. 1 overall since Jokić in 2014. His defensive potential and international pedigree make him a franchise-altering prospect.
• Anderson’s Upside vs. Risk: Anderson’s athleticism and offensive skills make him a high-ceiling pick, but his injury history could lead teams to draft him later than expected. A top-10 selection would be ideal for his development.
• Kayil’s Long-Term Role: Kayil’s shooting and defense could make him a valuable role player, but his lack of elite athleticism might limit his ceiling. Teams drafting him late in the first round will likely view him as a complementary big man.