The 2026 NHL Draft kicks off Friday night in Buffalo, with Gavin McKenna projected to go first overall by both WGR and The Athletic, capping a season where the Penn State winger transitioned from junior dominance to NCAA adaptation. The first round features a deep defensive class, including Chase Reid, Carson Carels, and Alberts Šmits, with teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks locked in high-stakes decisions between top prospects.
The Top Prospect: Gavin McKenna’s Path from WHL to Penn State
Gavin McKenna’s ascent to the top of the 2026 draft class is as much about his on-ice production as it is about his adaptability. After three seasons in the Western Hockey League with the Medicine Hat Tigers—where he amassed 244 points in 133 games—McKenna made the leap to the NCAA, joining Penn State for his draft year. The transition wasn’t seamless: his early struggles in college hockey were offset by a late-season surge, finishing with 15 goals and 36 assists in 35 games. His international pedigree, including a bronze medal at the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, solidifies his status as the consensus No. 1 pick, according to both WGR and The Athletic.
The Athletic’s mock draft projection places McKenna at the top, framing his selection by the Toronto Maple Leafs as a bet on his “100-point potential” and ability to “dictate the pace of play.” WGR’s analysis echoes this, highlighting his “gifted puck handling” and “quick decision-making,” though it notes the “generational” label remains debated. What’s clear is that McKenna’s skill set—elite edge work, wrist-shot accuracy, and playmaking—aligns perfectly with the Maple Leafs’ long-term vision, even as they’ve missed just two playoff berths in the last decade.
The Defensive Debate: Reid vs. Stenberg vs. Šmits
While McKenna’s selection is a foregone conclusion, the rest of the first round is a puzzle. The Athletic’s mock draft reveals a league divided between three dominant defensemen: Chase Reid (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL), Ivar Stenberg (Frölunda HC, SHL), and Alberts Šmits (Munich, DEL). Reid, a right-handed defenseman, is projected third by The Athletic, with the Vancouver Canucks prioritizing his “two-way dominance” over center Caleb Malhotra. WGR’s mock draft, meanwhile, slots Reid at No. 2 for the San Jose Sharks—a shift that reflects the team’s evolving preference for defensive depth over offensive upside.
Stenberg, a 6-foot Swedish winger, is the dark horse. The Athletic reports the San Jose Sharks are “leaning toward” him, citing his “one of the best seasons ever by a draft-eligible teenager” in the SHL. WGR’s mock draft agrees, projecting him at No. 2, but notes lingering questions about his offensive ceiling compared to Reid. Šmits, a Latvian Olympian, adds another layer: The Athletic’s projection has him at No. 5 (New York Rangers), while WGR’s mock draft doesn’t feature him in the top 10—a discrepancy that underscores how fluid these decisions remain.
The Wildcards: Who Falls Through the Cracks?
Beyond the top three, the draft’s intrigue lies in the “what-ifs.” Carson Carels, a left-handed defenseman from the WHL, is projected sixth by The Athletic (Calgary Flames) but doesn’t appear in WGR’s top 10—a gap that may reflect differing scouting philosophies. Keaton Verhoeff, a North Dakota NCAA defenseman, is another sleeper: The Athletic’s mock draft has him at No. 8 (Winnipeg Jets), while WGR doesn’t mention him until the second round. This volatility highlights how late-breaking injuries, scouting reports, and team needs can reshape the board in real time.
One constant is the depth of the defensive class. Both sources agree that at least 10 blue liners could hear their names called in the first round—a rarity in recent drafts. The Athletic notes that teams like the Seattle Kraken and Nashville Predators are “primed” to target defensemen, with Daxon Rudolph (Prince Albert, WHL) and Viggo Björck (Djurgården, SHL) as late-round wildcards. WGR’s mock draft doesn’t feature Björck in the first round, but The Athletic’s projection places him at No. 10, suggesting his stock may be rising faster than initially thought.
What Happens Next: The Draft and Beyond
The 2026 NHL Draft begins Friday at 7 p.m. ET in Buffalo, with Round 1 televised on NHL Network. The real drama won’t be the mock drafts—it’ll be how teams react to live scouting, trade rumors, and last-minute injuries. The Athletic’s projection, for instance, assumes no trades, but the Sharks’ potential interest in Reid or Stenberg could spark a first-round swap. WGR’s mock draft, meanwhile, treats the board as static—a reflection of how early projections often overlook the chaos of draft day.
For McKenna, the immediate challenge is proving he can replicate his junior and international success at the NHL level. His NCAA transition suggests he’s adaptable, but teams will scrutinize his ability to handle the physicality and speed of pro hockey. Reid and Stenberg, meanwhile, face the pressure of living up to their draft positions: Reid’s two-way game must translate to offensive production, while Stenberg’s offensive ceiling remains the biggest question mark. Šmits, with his Olympic pedigree, could be the sleeper if he lands in the right system.
The draft’s legacy may hinge on whether this class delivers on its defensive promise. If Reid, Šmits, and Carels all pan out, it could mark a turning point for NHL teams prioritizing puck-moving defensemen over traditional stay-at-home blueliners. For now, the focus is on Friday night—and whether the mock drafts hold up under the pressure of the real thing.
Find more reporting in our Sport news section.
