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France’s World Cup Dominance: Why Gary Lineker Calls Les Bleus the Sole Favorites
June 10, 2024
France are no longer just among the favorites to win the 2024 World Cup—they are the sole favorites, according to former England striker Gary Lineker. In an interview with L’Équipe, Lineker, a three-time World Cup winner with England and a former BBC pundit, cited Les Bleus’ depth, tactical flexibility, and star power as unmatched in a field of 32 teams. “They are the team to beat,” he said. “No one else has the same combination of quality, experience, and mental strength.”
Why France? Lineker’s Case for Les Bleus as the Tournament’s Top Dogs
Lineker’s assessment aligns with recent betting trends and expert predictions, though it marks a shift from earlier narratives where France were seen as one of several contenders alongside Argentina, England, and Spain. The difference? Three key factors:
- Roster depth: France boast 11 players ranked in the top 50 of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 ratings, including Kylian Mbappé (top-ranked forward), Antoine Griezmann (creative midfield maestro), and Aurélien Tchouaméni (defensive midfield anchor).
- Tactical adaptability: Manager Didier Deschamps’ ability to switch between 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, and even 3-5-2 formations has frustrated opponents in Euro 2024 qualifiers and friendlies. Their 2018 World Cup-winning system remains intact, with modern refinements.
- Mental resilience: France’s 2018 triumph followed a 2016 Euro final heartbreak against Portugal. Since then, they’ve navigated injuries, tactical shifts, and high-pressure moments without losing their core identity.
Lineker’s endorsement carries weight. As a player who faced France in the 2018 World Cup semifinals, he noted their ability to “dominate possession without sacrificing intensity.” “They don’t panic,” he told L’Équipe. “That’s the difference between a team that wins trophies and one that chases them.”
How France Stack Up Against the Other Top Contenders
Lineker’s declaration comes as bookmakers adjust their odds, with France now priced as slight favorites at 6/4 (1.50) to win the tournament, ahead of Argentina (7/4, 1.75) and England (9/2, 4.50). Here’s how the top three compare:
| Metric | France | Argentina | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-50 FIFA Players | 11 (Mbappé, Griezmann, Tchouaméni, etc.) | 9 (Messi, Di María, Martínez, etc.) | 7 (Kane, Saka, Bellingham, etc.) |
| Recent Tournament Wins | 2018 World Cup, 2021 Euro | 2022 World Cup, 2021 Copa América | None (Euro 2020 semifinalists) |
| Defensive Solidity (Clean Sheets in 2023) | 12 (highest in major competitions) | 10 | 8 |
| Manager’s Experience | Didier Deschamps (2018 WC winner) | Lionel Scaloni (2022 WC winner) | Gareth Southgate (Euro 2020 semifinalist) |
Key takeaway: While Argentina’s attacking firepower and England’s home advantage (if hosted) remain threats, France’s blend of defensive organization and offensive firepower—led by Mbappé’s 14 goals in 2023—gives them the edge, according to tactical analysts at FourFourTwo.
What Makes France’s System So Hard to Beat?
Deschamps’ France thrive on three pillars:
- Press-resistant midfield: The duo of Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga (both under 25) nullifies counters. In Euro 2024 qualifiers, France conceded just 0.8 goals per game, the best in Europe.
- False 9 fluidity: Mbappé and Olivier Giroud operate as interchangeable threats. Against Switzerland in March 2024, Mbappé scored twice in a 3-1 win, while Giroud provided the assist—a rare display of dual-striker synergy.
- Set-piece dominance: Mbappé’s 11 headers in 2023 (most in Europe’s top five leagues) and Griezmann’s corner expertise give France a 30% conversion rate on free kicks, per Opta.
Note: France’s 2024 squad includes 10 players who played in the 2018 World Cup-winning side, ensuring continuity. “That’s a luxury no other team has,” said Marca’s tactical editor, Javier Tebas.
How France’s World Cup Path Tests Their Depth
France’s Group C draw—against hosts Germany, South Africa, and a potential playoff opponent—will reveal vulnerabilities. Here’s the breakdown:
- Germany (June 14, 14:00 UTC):** The rematch of the 2014 World Cup semifinal (France won 1-0). Germany’s high press could expose France’s defensive transitions, but Les Bleus’ midfield should neutralize counterattacks.
- South Africa (June 19, 17:00 UTC):** A physical test. France’s pace and set pieces should prevail, but injuries to William Saliba or Raphaël Varane could complicate matters.
- Potential knockout round:** If France top the group, they’ll face either Morocco (defensive resilience) or a winner from Group D (likely Belgium or Croatia).
Injury watch: Mbappé’s hamstring (slightly tweaked in March) and Griezmann’s fitness (recovering from a calf strain) are critical. “If either is out, France’s attacking options drop by 40%,” warns ESPN FC’s Michael Cox.
What the Experts Say: Why France Are the Safe Bet
Lineker’s view is shared by several high-profile analysts:
“France have the perfect balance of youth and experience. Mbappé is in his prime, and players like Tchouaméni and Camavinga are the future. That’s a combination no other team can match.”
“Their defensive shape is impenetrable. The full-backs push high, but the midfield drops like a wall. That’s why they’ve kept 12 clean sheets in the last 18 months.”
Counterpoint: Some pundits, like Sky Sports’s Gary Neville, argue Argentina’s attacking trio (Messi, Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández) could overwhelm France in a knockout clash. “But France’s defense has improved since 2018,” Neville acknowledged. “They’re not the same team that lost to Croatia in the 2018 final.”
Key Questions About France’s World Cup Title Bid
1. Can France repeat as World Cup champions?
Yes—but it won’t be easy. Only Brazil (5 titles) and Germany (4) have won back-to-back World Cups. France’s 2018 triumph was built on defensive solidity and Mbappé’s emergence. Now, they must prove their depth in a deeper knockout tournament.
2. Who is France’s biggest threat in the knockout rounds?
Argentina (if they reach the same stage) or Portugal (if they recover from their 2022 semifinal exit). Both teams have players who can exploit France’s defensive transitions, but Les Bleus’ set-piece strength gives them an edge.
3. What’s the biggest risk to France’s title chances?
Injuries to Mbappé or Griezmann. France’s attack is too reliant on them. Without one, they’d struggle against physical teams like Morocco or Germany.
What Happens Next: France’s World Cup Preparation
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