Why the Draw Against Iran Matters More Than Just Points

Belgium’s performance against Iran—played in Abu Dhabi at the 974 Stadium—was their second group-stage match following a 2-1 victory over Morocco. The draw leaves them on three points from two games, level with Morocco and one behind Saudi Arabia, who topped the group with a 2-0 win over Iran earlier in the tournament.

What makes this result particularly concerning is the context: Belgium entered the tournament as one of the favorites, boasting a squad packed with world-class talent, including Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, and Kevin De Bruyne. However, their inability to break down Iran’s disciplined defense—despite controlling possession for much of the match—has raised questions about their adaptability and the effectiveness of head coach Domenico Tedesco’s tactics.

According to the official tournament records, Belgium had 62% possession but only managed 1.2 expected goals (xG) in the match, a figure that underscores their failure to create meaningful scoring chances. In contrast, Iran’s xG was just 0.3, highlighting how tightly Belgium were shut down despite their numerical superiority.

The Key Moments: How Belgium Fell Short

The match was defined by three critical phases:

• First-Half Dominance Without Conversion: Belgium dominated the early stages, with De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans dictating play from midfield. However, their forward line—led by Lukaku and Hazard—struggled to capitalize on Iran’s defensive organization. A notable moment came in the 22nd minute when Lukaku’s header was saved by Iran goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand after a poor cross from the right flank.
• The Missed Opportunity: In the 45th minute, a quick counterattack saw Leander Dendoncker’s through-ball reach Lukaku, who was left one-on-one with Beiranvand. The striker’s shot was saved at the near post, a moment that encapsulated Belgium’s inability to finish even when presented with clear chances.
• Second-Half Adjustments That Didn’t Pay Off: Tedesco made two substitutions in the 65th minute, bringing on Charles De Ketelaere and Jeremy Doku in a bid to inject more creativity and physicality. However, Iran’s defensive structure remained impenetrable, and Belgium’s attacks became increasingly predictable, with Iran’s full-backs stepping forward to cut out passing lanes.

According to tactical analysts at Squawka, Belgium’s failure to exploit Iran’s high defensive line was a recurring theme. “They lacked the verticality to break the Iranians down, and their midfield three—De Bruyne, Tielemans, and Thorgan Hazard—struggled to find the killer pass,” the analysis noted.

Kevin De Bruyne’s Struggles: A Microcosm of Belgium’s Issues

De Bruyne, often the creative engine of Belgium’s attacks, was largely invisible in this match. His passing accuracy dropped to 78% (down from his career average of 88%), and he completed just 43 passes in the game, with none resulting in a shot on target.

Speaking to BBC Sport post-match, a source close to the Belgium camp described De Bruyne’s performance as “uncharacteristically passive.” The midfielder’s reluctance to engage in one-on-one duels with Iran’s defenders—particularly against the aggressive Saeid Ezatolahi—highlighted a shift in his game that has been a concern for Tedesco.

This isn’t the first time De Bruyne has struggled in tournament football. During the 2022 World Cup, he was also criticized for his lack of impact, particularly in Belgium’s group-stage matches. However, his form in club football—where he has been instrumental for Manchester City—suggests this is more a tactical issue than a loss of ability.

According to Transfermarkt, De Bruyne’s xG contribution in this match was just 0.1, the lowest of any Belgium outfield player. For context, Lukaku’s xG was 0.4, while Hazard’s was 0.3.

Iran’s Resilience and the Role of Exile Fans

While Belgium’s performance drew criticism, Iran’s resilience in a tough group stage was equally noteworthy. The team, managed by Carlos Queiroz, has relied on a disciplined defensive structure and quick counterattacks to earn their points. Their 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia earlier in the tournament demonstrated their ability to exploit defensive lapses.

One of the more striking moments of the match came before kickoff, when sections of Iranian exile fans in the stadium booed their national anthem. The incident, captured on camera, reflected the political tensions surrounding the tournament and added an unusual layer to the atmosphere. According to Reuters, the booing lasted for several seconds before the crowd quieted, though the match proceeded without further incident.

Iran’s victory over Saudi Arabia in their opening match had already sent shockwaves through the tournament, as it marked the first time Iran had defeated Saudi Arabia in a FIFA World Cup match. This draw against Belgium keeps their hopes of advancing alive, though they will need to perform strongly in their final group-stage match against Morocco.

What Happens Next: Belgium’s Path Forward

Belgium’s next match is their final group-stage fixture against Morocco on June 24 at the 974 Stadium in Abu Dhabi. A win is not guaranteed, but it is essential for their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages.

According to the current group standings, Belgium will advance if they win and Morocco loses to Iran, or if they finish with more points than Morocco regardless of the outcome of the Morocco-Iran match. However, given Morocco’s strong start to the tournament, Belgium cannot afford to drop any more points.

Tedesco will likely make further tactical adjustments, potentially introducing more width to stretch Iran’s defense. Players like Leander Dendoncker and Charles De Ketelaere could play a more prominent role in providing crosses and runs into the box. Lukaku, who has been Belgium’s most consistent performer in this tournament, will need to step up his game in front of goal.

In a post-match press conference, Tedesco was cautious but critical. “We need to improve our final third,” he said. “The players are working hard, but we need more quality in our attacks.” His comments suggest a focus on refining their attacking structure rather than making wholesale changes to the squad.

Broader Implications: Is Belgium’s Golden Generation Fading?

This draw against Iran is the latest in a series of underwhelming performances from Belgium in recent tournaments. Their struggles in the 2022 World Cup and the 2023 Nations League have led some to question whether this generation of Belgian players—once the darlings of world football—are losing their edge.

Comparing their performances in this tournament to their 2018 World Cup campaign—where they reached the semifinals—reveals a stark contrast. In 2018, Belgium averaged 2.1 goals per game and had an xG of 2.3 across their matches. This tournament, their xG per game stands at just 1.5, with only one goal scored in two matches.

One factor that cannot be ignored is the age of the squad. Players like De Bruyne (32), Hazard (33), and Eden Hazard (33) are entering the twilight of their careers, while younger talents like Doku (22) and Dendoncker (24) are still finding their feet. The transition between generations has been rocky, and this match against Iran exposed the gaps in Belgium’s attacking structure.

According to The Guardian, the lack of a clear heir to De Bruyne has been a persistent issue for Belgium. “The midfield is the heart of any team, and right now, Belgium’s heart is beating irregularly,” the analysis stated.