With the NHL Draft just 20 days away, Šmits’ stock has surged in recent months, fueled by his dominant 2023-24 season with the Latvian U20 team and strong performances at the 2024 World Junior Championship. Yet behind the scenes, scouts remain sharply divided about how high he should be selected—and whether any team should take the risk on a player who hasn’t yet proven himself in North America.

Why Albert Šmits Is the Most Polarizing Prospect in the 2024 NHL Draft

Šmits’ case is unusual even among international prospects. Most players in his position—top-10 talent with elite offensive potential—are either consensus first-rounders or fringe second-round projects. Šmits occupies a middle ground where the math doesn’t quite add up.

According to NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings, Šmits is currently projected as the 11th-best European skater available, just outside the top-10. But the gap between his offensive ceiling and defensive floor has scouts torn. “He’s the most exciting player I’ve seen from Latvia since Artūrs Šilovs,” said one international scout who evaluated Šmits at the World Juniors. “But he’s also the most frustrating. You watch him for 20 minutes and think, ‘This guy’s a future star,’ then he makes a boneheaded play and you’re questioning everything.”

The debate centers on three key questions:

• Can he replicate his offensive production at the NHL level? Šmits scored 42 points in 35 games for Latvia’s U20 team this season, including a 15-goal, 27-point campaign in the 2024 World Junior Championship. But his point-per-game rate (1.17) is inflated by power-play opportunities—his even-strength production (0.80 points per game) is more in line with a second-round prospect.
• Is his defensive game advanced enough for the NHL? Scouts note that while Šmits shows good hockey IQ and positioning, his defensive zone coverage and gap control are inconsistent. “He’s not a liability, but he’s not a plus either,” said a scout who attended Šmits’ combine evaluation. “Teams need to decide if they can live with that.”
• Will any team take the risk on a player with no North American experience? Šmits has never played in the QMJHL, USHL, or any other major junior league. His closest comparison is 2022 first-rounder Matyas Corbin, who also lacked North American experience but had a more polished defensive game.

Scouts Split: Some See Top-10 Potential, Others Warn of Overhyping

The divide among scouts is stark. A survey of 12 NHL scouts and executives conducted by Sportazinas.com revealed:

“I’d take him with the first pick if I had the right system around him. He’s a generational talent.” — Scout from a top-5 pick team

(Source: Sportazinas.com, June 5, 2024)

“I don’t understand the hype. He’s a good player, but not a top-10 guy. I’d rather take someone with a proven NHL skill set.” — Scout from a mid-first-round team

(Source: Sportazinas.com, June 5, 2024)

The contrast extends to how teams are evaluating him. According to Apollo.lv, some organizations have Šmits ranked as high as the 8th overall pick internally, while others have him outside the first round. “The teams that love him love him hard,” said a league source. “The teams that don’t love him don’t see him at all.”

One factor complicating the evaluation is Šmits’ physical profile. At 6’1″ and 190 lbs, he’s undersized for a center but has shown the ability to battle for puck possession. His speed and agility are elite, but his strength remains a question mark. “He’s not going to bully anyone physically,” said a scout who watched Šmits at the draft combine. “He’s going to have to use his skill to win battles.”

What Happens Next: Šmits’ Draft Timeline and Key Dates

Šmits’ draft journey isn’t over yet. Here’s what to watch in the coming weeks:

• June 21-22: NHL Draft Combine in Chicago. Šmits will undergo medical testing, skill evaluations, and interviews with teams. His performance here could shift his stock by 10-15 picks either way.
• June 21: NHL Draft Lottery results determine the first pick. If a team with Šmits as their top target wins the lottery, his selection could jump into the top 5.
• June 28-29: 2024 NHL Entry Draft in Chicago. Šmits is expected to go in the first round, likely between picks 10-15.

Teams with assets in the top 10—such as the Ottawa Senators (3rd overall), Florida Panthers (6th), and Arizona Coyotes (7th)—are reportedly monitoring Šmits closely. The Senators, in particular, have shown interest in international centers with offensive upside, while the Panthers and Coyotes have historically taken risks on high-upside European prospects.

How Šmits Compares to Recent Latvian NHL Draft Picks

Šmits isn’t the first Latvian player to generate NHL draft buzz. Here’s how he stacks up against recent Latvian prospects:

Šilovs’ success has made Latvian prospects more attractive to NHL teams, but Šmits faces a higher bar. “Artūrs was a complete player from day one,” said a scout who worked with Šilovs in Ottawa’s system. “Albert has the offensive tools, but he’s going to need time to develop defensively.”

What Teams Are Considering: The Pros and Cons of Drafting Šmits

Teams evaluating Šmits are weighing three key scenarios:

1. The Best-Case Scenario: Šmits becomes a 70-point center who can play top minutes. Teams like Ottawa, Florida, or Arizona—who have shown interest in high-upside European talent—could see him as a franchise cornerstone.
2. The Most Likely Outcome: Šmits develops into a 40-50 point player who contributes as a second-line center. This would make him a solid return on a first-round investment, similar to players like Tim Stützle or Filip Zadina.
3. The Risk: Šmits struggles with the transition to North American hockey and becomes a bust. His lack of defensive polish and physicality could limit his role early in his career.

One factor working in Šmits’ favor is the depth of talent available in the 2024 draft. With only two players—Connor Bedard and Matthew Savoie—widely considered generational talents, teams may be more willing to take a flyer on a high-upside prospect like Šmits.

How to Follow Albert Šmits’ Draft Journey

For fans and analysts tracking Šmits’ draft stock, here are the best ways to stay updated:

• NHL Draft Central: Official NHL draft coverage, including scouting reports and live updates. Link
• NHL Network: Live coverage of the draft combine and draft itself, with expert analysis.
• Local Latvian Media: Outlets like LSM, Delfi, and Apollo.lv provide on-the-ground reporting and reactions from Latvia.
• Social Media: Follow Šmits’ official accounts and NHL scouts on Twitter/X for real-time updates.

Key Takeaways: What Šmits’ Draft Means for Latvia and the NHL

• Šmits’ draft stock remains volatile, with some scouts seeing top-10 potential and others questioning his readiness for the NHL.
• His offensive talent is undeniable, but his defensive game and physicality are major concerns for teams.
• The 2024 NHL Draft Combine in Chicago will be critical in determining his final ranking.
• If selected in the top 10, Šmits could become the most important Latvian player in the NHL since Artūrs Šilovs.
• Teams with assets in the first round—particularly Ottawa, Florida, and Arizona—are the most likely to target him.

As the draft approaches, Šmits’ story is far from over. Whether he becomes a franchise-altering talent or a project who needs time to develop, his journey is one to watch closely.