World Cup 2026 Preview: Who Will Win? And Who Will Disappoint?

France enters as the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, but a record 48 teams in the expanded tournament mean surprises are guaranteed. With qualifying already underway and host nations Canada, Mexico, and the United States set to co-host, the stage is set for a tournament that will redefine global football. Here’s what we know—and what could go wrong.

France Starts as the Favorite—but Can They Handle the Pressure?

France’s 2018 triumph and Kylian Mbappé’s rise have made them the bookmakers’ top pick for 2026, with odds at 4/1 according to FIFA’s official betting partners. But the path to threepeat glory will be far harder with 16 more teams in the mix.

“France have the talent, but the depth of the tournament means one bad run could eliminate them early,” said Toni Kroos, who will likely return for his fourth World Cup. “We’ve seen how quickly things can change—just look at 2022.”

Key questions:

• Can Mbappé maintain his form after the 2024 European Championship?
• Will Antoine Griezmann’s leadership be enough without Paul Pogba?
• How will France adapt to the new 48-team format’s expanded group stages?

Argentina’s Defense in Crisis: Messi’s Last Chance

Argentina’s 2022 final victory hinged on Lionel Messi’s genius and a defensive system that barely held. With Emiliano Martínez aging and Nicolás Otamendi recovering from injury, their backline remains a question mark. “The defense is the weak link,” admitted Javier Mascherano in a recent interview with Olé. “We need young blood, but the experience of the veterans is irreplaceable.”

If Argentina fail to qualify for the knockout stages, Messi’s legacy could take a hit. Their qualifying campaign has been inconsistent, with losses to Ecuador and Uruguay raising eyebrows. “The pressure is different now,” said Ángel Di María. “In 2022, we were underdogs. This time, we’re expected to win.”

Germany’s Rebuilding Act: Can They Bounce Back?

Germany’s 2022 exit as group-stage losers sent shockwaves through European football. Two years later, Hansi Flick has reshaped the squad, with Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz emerging as stars. But questions remain:

• Goalkeeping crisis: Manuel Neuer’s retirement leaves Marc-André ter Stegen as first-choice, but his defensive record is unproven at World Cup level.
• Defensive depth: With Joshua Kimmich past his prime, Germany’s midfield lacks a true ball-winner.
• Qualifying hurdles: Their path includes Spain and Italy—teams that have historically dominated them.

“We’re not the same team, but we’re not the same problem either,” Flick told Kicker. “If we can stay disciplined, we have a real chance.”

Who Will Disappoint? The Teams to Watch for Collapse

With 16 more teams than in 2022, the risk of early exits is higher. Here are three teams with red flags:

1. Portugal (CR7’s Final World Cup)

Cristiano Ronaldo’s 2026 tournament will be his last, but Portugal’s squad lacks depth. Injuries to Rúben Dias and Bernardo Silva in recent friendlies show their vulnerability. “We’re relying too much on individuals,” said Nuno Espírito Santo in a Record interview. “If CR7 isn’t 100%, we’re in trouble.”

2. Belgium (Aging Core, No Replacement Plan)

Eden Hazard’s retirement leaves a void, and Kevin De Bruyne is 31. Their midfield lacks creativity, and Romelu Lukaku’s form has dipped. “We need a generational change, but it’s not happening fast enough,” said Thibaut Courtois.

3. Brazil (Defensive Frailties Persist)

Despite Neymar’s return, Brazil’s defense remains a concern. Thiago Silva is 36, and Casemiro’s injury history is well-documented. Their 2022 group-stage exit was a wake-up call. “We can’t afford another defensive meltdown,” said Dunga.

Host Nations: Who Has the Edge?

The co-hosts—Canada, Mexico, and the USA—automatically qualify, giving them a home advantage. But their paths diverge:

• Mexico: Already qualified, they’ll play in 11 cities, including Mexico City (83,756-seat Azteca Stadium). Their fans are among the most passionate in world football.
• USA: Hosting 11 matches, including the final at MetLife Stadium (New Jersey), they’ll rely on Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie to lead.
• Canada: Playing in 3 cities, including Toronto’s BMO Field, they’ll need a breakthrough to avoid early elimination.

“The home advantage is massive, but it’s not automatic,” said Tab Ramos, the USA’s 1994 World Cup winner. “You still have to perform.”

Tactical Shifts: How the 48-Team Format Changes Everything

The expanded tournament introduces a two-group stage:

1. Group Stage (48 teams → 24 spots): 12 groups of 4, with top 2 advancing.
2. Round of 32 → Round of 16 → Quarterfinals → Semifinals → Final.

“Teams can’t afford to rest stars in the group stage anymore,” said Pep Guardiola. “Every match counts, and fatigue will be a factor.”

Key tactical adjustments:

• Defensive solidity: Teams will need 5-at-the-back systems to survive the longer campaign.
• Set-piece specialization: With more matches, corners and free kicks become even more critical.
• Injury management: Squad depth is non-negotiable.

Dark Horses: Who Could Shock the World?

With 16 new teams, the underdogs have a real chance. Top contenders:

• Saudi Arabia: First World Cup appearance, deep pockets, and Nasser Al-Dawsari’s leadership.
• Qatar: Debut after 2022’s hosting, with Akram Afif as their talisman.
• Indonesia: Returning after 32 years, they’ll need a miracle to progress.
• Japan: Consistently strong in Asia, they’ll push for a knockout-stage spot.

“The beauty of this tournament is that no one is safe,” said Didier Deschamps. “Even the favorites can be eliminated.”

Key Dates: What’s Next?

Qualifying is already underway, with CONMEBOL and UEFA matches determining the final spots. Here’s the timeline:

• June 2024–March 2026: Final qualifying matches.
• April 2026: FIFA announces full draw for the tournament.
• June 11, 2026: Opening match at MetLife Stadium (New Jersey, USA).
• July 19, 2026: Final at MetLife Stadium.

“The wait is long, but the stakes are higher than ever,” said Gianni Infantino, FIFA President. “This will be the biggest World Cup in history.”

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How many teams will qualify for the 2026 World Cup?

A: A record 48 teams will compete, up from 32 in 2022. This includes 13 spots from UEFA, 6 from CONMEBOL, 6 from AFC, 5 from CAF, 4.5 from CONCACAF (including the 3 host nations), and 2 from OFC.

Q: Will the USA host the final?

A: Yes. The final will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with a capacity of 82,500.

Q: How will the expanded format affect teams?

A: The two-group stage means 64 matches total, up from 64 in 2022. Teams will play 4 group-stage matches before the knockout rounds, increasing the risk of fatigue.

Q: Can Portugal win without Cristiano Ronaldo?

A: Unlikely. While Gonçalo Ramos and Rafael Leão are rising stars, Portugal’s recent success has relied heavily on Ronaldo’s leadership and goal-scoring.