Tarik Skubal Trade Rumors Grow as Tigers Ace Nears Return From Surgery

Recovery Milestones: Skubal’s Return Timeline

Skubal underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery on May 6 to remove a loose body, a procedure that used a NanoScope to minimize invasiveness. By May 22, he had completed three bullpen sessions, including a multi-inning simulation on Thursday that replicated the demands of a start. His velocity in these sessions has been “as high as it’s been since his throwing started,” according to manager A.J. Hinch, who emphasized the importance of each step in the recovery process. “He sat down and came back and did like a simulated second inning. That’s encouraging, and it’s full stuff,” Hinch said.

“It was a certain velocity I was trying to get to today. You have to prove to your body that it’s OK to throw hard again, especially [with] it being 15 days from surgery.”

Skubal’s progress has been notable, but Hinch cautioned against rushing his return. “There are little hurdles to clear along the way when you come back from a procedure,” Hinch said. “As much as we described it as simple, it’s still a procedure.” Skubal himself acknowledged the uncertainty, stating, “But it is kind of day by day. It is [based on] how I feel and how I bounce back, and tomorrow, how I wake up and how I feel is going to be important.” His next steps include a bullpen session in Baltimore this weekend and another early next week, with a simulated game or rehab start likely before his return to the active roster.

Trade Speculation: What the Tigers Could Receive

With the Tigers struggling and Skubal’s recovery timeline uncertain, trade rumors have intensified. Rival executives, speaking to Fansided, offered varying assessments of Skubal’s value in a potential trade. One executive suggested a package of “one top-100 prospect plus a top-15 and one more throw-in,” while another predicted the Padres would be the most likely suitor, given their willingness to invest in high-impact talent. A third executive framed the asking price as “one top-50 and another top-100 prospect,” with additional fringe prospects and minor-league players as possible throw-ins.

The financial hurdle remains a significant barrier. Skubal is owed approximately $12–$14 million for the remainder of the season, a sum that requires a team to either allocate unexpected funds or negotiate a salary buyout. “Teams don’t typically have a bunch of extra cash laying around midseason,” one executive noted, adding that “if the Tigers pay down the salary, the return could be better.” The Padres, however, appear willing to meet such demands, with one executive stating flatly, “The Padres will.”

Market Dynamics: Skubal’s Value in a Competitive Landscape

Skubal’s injury and potential trade create a high-stakes scenario for both the Tigers and contenders eyeing a late-season push. His 2.70 ERA in seven starts this season underscores his elite status, but his health remains the wildcard. The Tigers’ 20-31 record and last-place standing in the AL Central have intensified pressure on general manager AJ Preller, who must balance the team’s long-term needs with the immediate demand for a playoff contender.

For acquiring teams, Skubal represents a rare opportunity to bolster a rotation without committing to long-term contracts. His free agency status after this season adds another layer of intrigue, as teams might view him as a short-term solution to bridge gaps in their pitching staffs. The Padres, in particular, have a history of aggressive midseason moves, and their interest could accelerate a trade timeline.

What’s Next: Skubal’s Return and the Tigers’ Deadline Dilemma

Skubal’s next bullpen session in Baltimore will be critical in determining his readiness for a rehab start. If he continues to show progress, he could return to the active roster within the next two weeks, though Hinch and Skubal have both stressed caution. Meanwhile, the Tigers face a deadline decision: hold onto Skubal and hope for a resurgence, or explore trade options to maximize his value.

The August 3 trade deadline looms, and Skubal’s inclusion in any deal would likely hinge on his health and the Tigers’ willingness to part with a star pitcher. For now, the focus remains on his recovery, but the clock is ticking. If Skubal’s velocity and stamina hold up in upcoming sessions, the Tigers may find themselves with a difficult choice: cling to a player whose team is out of contention or cash in on a pitcher who could be the difference-maker for another club.

One thing is certain: Skubal’s story is far from over. Whether he returns to the Tigers or lands elsewhere, his impact on the 2026 season will be felt far beyond Detroit.