The Latvian Phenom: Why Alberts Šmits is Climbing the NHL Draft Board

While the hockey world is currently locked into the intensity of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs—where stars like Mitch Marner are putting on clinics for the Vegas Golden Knights—the conversation in scouting circles has shifted toward the next generation. Specifically, all eyes are on Latvia’s Alberts Šmits.

For those tracking the 2026 NHL draft projection, Šmits is no longer just a “name to watch”; he has become a focal point of first-round discussions. Once viewed as a mid-to-late round prospect, the 18-year-old defenseman has seen his stock skyrocket, with some of the most respected analysts in the game now projecting him as a top-10 talent. The most intriguing development? A growing consensus that the Winnipeg Jets could be the ideal destination for the Latvian standout.

As Editor-in-Chief of Archysport, I’ve covered decades of draft cycles and rarely do we see a European defenseman make this kind of leap in a single season. Šmits isn’t just benefiting from a hype train; he is producing the kind of tape that forces GMs to move him up their boards.

The Meteoric Rise: From Prospect to Top-10 Lock

The trajectory of Alberts Šmits over the last twelve months has been nothing short of aggressive. Early projections had him comfortably in the middle of the pack, but a dominant stretch in Finland’s Liiga combined with high-stakes international experience has changed the narrative.

The numbers and rankings now reflect a player who has evolved. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic has been one of the most bullish on Šmits, slotting him as high as fifth overall in recent projections. Other prominent scouts, including Corey Pronman, have aligned with a top-10 valuation, specifically placing him around the eighth spot. When you have analysts of that caliber shifting their boards, it indicates a fundamental change in how the player is perceived—from a “reliable piece” to a “franchise pillar.”

It’s a classic case of a player hitting their growth spurt—both physically and mentally—at the exact moment the scouting community is looking for a definitive anchor on the blue line.

The Blueprint: Comparing Šmits to Moritz Seider

When scouts talk about Šmits, one name frequently surfaces: Moritz Seider. For the uninitiated, Seider represents the modern “complete” defenseman—someone who can shut down an opponent’s top line with raw physicality but possess the vision to trigger a transition attack in a single heartbeat.

Šmits mirrors this blueprint. He possesses a rare blend of physical strength and elite mobility, allowing him to outmuscle forwards in the corners while still having the foot speed to keep up with the league’s fastest skaters. But the real value lies in his “hockey IQ.” He reads the game two steps ahead, a trait that allows him to execute a precise first pass under pressure—the single most important skill for a modern NHL defenseman.

His game is characterized by a relentless competitiveness. He doesn’t just play the position; he dominates the zone. With a heavy shot and an innate ability to read the play, he projects as a top-pair defenseman who can play 22-plus minutes a night in all situations.

Why the Winnipeg Jets are the Perfect Fit

The speculation regarding the Winnipeg Jets isn’t random. According to projections from The Athletic, the Jets are positioned to potentially take Šmits with the eighth overall pick. On the surface, Winnipeg has a functional defensive corps, but in the NHL, “functional” is the enemy of “elite.”

Analyst Murat Ateş has noted that Šmits is simply “too impressive to ignore.” For a team like the Jets, adding a defenseman with Šmits’ mobility and playmaking ability would provide a tactical upgrade that changes how they exit their own zone. Imagine a blue line where the transition is seamless, and the physical presence is intimidating—that is the “Šmits effect.”

Beyond the tactical fit, there is a compelling narrative element. The idea of bringing another high-profile Latvian talent into the fold could create a unique cultural synergy within the locker room, though from a management perspective, the decision will be driven by the desperate need for a long-term, top-pairing anchor.

The Olympic X-Factor

Perhaps the most telling indicator of Šmits’ readiness for the professional ranks was his role in the 2026 Olympic Games. At just 18 years old, Šmits was the only draft-eligible player selected for the Latvian national team.

Playing in the Olympics is a different beast than junior hockey or even professional leagues like Liiga. It requires a level of maturity and composure that most teenagers simply don’t possess. By holding his own against seasoned NHL veterans and international stars on the world’s biggest stage, Šmits proved that his game translates to the highest level of competition. He didn’t just participate; he belonged.

For NHL GMs, the Olympics served as the ultimate stress test. The fact that he emerged from that experience with his stock higher than when he entered is a massive green flag.

Draft Board Analysis: The Consensus vs. The Outliers

While the top-10 projection is becoming the consensus, there is always a variance in draft boards. Some scouts still view him as a late-first-round talent, while the “believers” see him as a top-five lock. This discrepancy usually comes down to how a team values “floor” versus “ceiling.”

• The Floor: A reliable, physical top-four defenseman who can play heavy minutes and stabilize a pairing.
• The Ceiling: A Norris Trophy contender who dictates the pace of the game from the back end.

The current trend suggests that the league is betting on the ceiling. In an era where mobility is king, a defenseman who can skate like a winger but hit like a heavyweight is the most valuable asset in the draft.

What’s Next for Alberts Šmits?

As we move closer to the draft, the pressure on Šmits will only increase. However, the player himself appears unfazed by the noise. The focus remains on finishing his development and maintaining the form that caught the eye of the NHL’s top scouts.

The road to the NHL is never linear, but for Alberts Šmits, the path is looking clearer than ever. Whether he lands in Winnipeg or elsewhere, the league is getting a player who represents the new gold standard of Latvian hockey.

The Next Milestone: The official NHL Draft lottery and subsequent team selections will determine exactly where Šmits lands. Fans and analysts will be watching closely to see if the Winnipeg Jets pull the trigger on the Latvian star to solidify their defense for the next decade.

Do you think the Winnipeg Jets should prioritize a defenseman like Šmits, or should they look for scoring depth? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.