The Regular Season Dominance That Now Feels Distant

McDavid’s 2025-26 campaign was nothing short of historic. By the season’s final game, he’d amassed 138 points — a total that not only led the league but also marked the highest single-season output since Mario Lemieux’s 161-point campaign in 1995-96. His 62 points in just 37 games at one stretch had him outpacing Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, the only other player within striking distance of the scoring title.

“What’s most impressive isn’t just that McDavid leads the league in scoring. It’s how he got there,” noted the NHL’s official recap of his midseason surge. Over a 10-game stretch in December 2025, McDavid recorded 12 goals and 14 assists, extending his point streak to 10 consecutive games. The numbers were so staggering that even the league’s official Twitter account couldn’t help but marvel: “Connor McDavid is simply unbelievable 🔥”

Connor McDavid is simply unbelievable 🔥 pic.twitter.com/eKkjc04nS6

&mdash. NHL (@NHL) December 22, 2025

Yet for all his regular-season heroics, McDavid’s playoff resume remains conspicuously light. Entering this postseason, he’d never advanced past the second round in his nine-year career. The Oilers’ 2026 playoff run was supposed to change that narrative — but after dropping three of the first five games to Colorado, the script isn’t going according to plan.

Game 5: A Microcosm of the Oilers’ Playoff Struggles

The Oilers’ most recent loss — a 4-3 defeat in Denver on March 10 — encapsulated their postseason woes. McDavid did manage to break the tie midway through the third period with a power-play goal, feeding Leon Draisaitl before spinning around defenseman Devon Toews to finish a give-and-go. But the lead didn’t last, and the Avalanche’s depth ultimately prevailed.

“McDavid scored the go-ahead goal midway through the third period, and the Edmonton Oilers ended the Colorado Avalanche’s five-game winning streak with a 4-3 victory,” read the NHL’s official recap of the game. But the victory was short-lived. The Oilers would go on to lose the next two games, putting them on the brink of elimination.

The game also featured a concerning moment for Edmonton’s goaltending situation. Starter Connor Ingram left the contest late in the second period after a collision with Nathan MacKinnon, entering concussion protocol. Backup Tristan Jarry stepped in and made 11 saves in relief, but the incident highlighted the Oilers’ vulnerability between the pipes — a weakness that’s been exploited throughout the series.

“It was concussion protocol. He’s feeling well,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said of Ingram’s status. “Obviously, that can change, but he was not allowed to reach back just due to the fact that of [the] concussion spotter.”

What’s Gone Wrong for the Oilers?

Statistically, the Oilers aren’t being outplayed by much. In the five games against Colorado, Edmonton has outshot the Avalanche 162-158 and held a slight edge in expected goals (13.2 to 12.8). But hockey, especially in the playoffs, is about timing — and the Avalanche have made their chances count.

Key issues plaguing the Oilers:

• Goaltending inconsistency: Ingram’s injury forced Jarry into action, and while he’s capable, the tandem hasn’t provided the stability needed in high-leverage moments.
• Special teams struggles: Edmonton’s power play, which ranked second in the NHL during the regular season (27.8%), has gone just 3-for-20 (15%) against Colorado.
• Depth scoring drought: Beyond McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers have just two other players with multiple points in the series (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evan Bouchard).
• Discipline: The Oilers have taken 22 penalties in the series, giving Colorado’s lethal power play (28.3% on the season) too many opportunities.

“We haven’t showed it necessarily all year, but it’s a great chance to play against them and see where we’re at,” McDavid said before the series began, referencing matchups against the league’s elite teams. Now, with their season on the line, the Oilers must prove they belong in that conversation.

The Avalanche’s Blueprint for Success

Colorado’s path to a 3-2 series lead hasn’t been about shutting down McDavid — he has 7 points in 5 games — but rather about exploiting Edmonton’s weaknesses elsewhere. The Avalanche’s balanced attack has seen contributions from across the lineup:

• Nathan MacKinnon: 5 points in 5 games, including a series-clinching goal in Game 5.
• Ross Colton: 3 goals in the series, including the overtime winner in Game 3.
• Valeri Nichushkin: A physical presence who’s won 56% of his faceoffs against Edmonton’s top centers.

“We sense like we’re one of those teams,” McDavid said of the Avalanche before the series. “Great opportunity for our group to play against the league’s best.” Now, the Oilers must prove they can hang with Colorado when it matters most.

What Happens Tonight

Game 6 tips off at 8:00 p.m. MT (10:00 p.m. ET) at Ball Arena in Denver. The Oilers are in must-win mode, while the Avalanche can close out the series and advance to the Western Conference Final for the second time in three years.

Key factors to watch:

• Goaltending matchup: If Ingram is cleared to start, his ability to bounce back from the Game 5 collision will be crucial. For Colorado, Mackenzie Blackwood has been steady, allowing just 2.4 goals per game in the series.
• Special teams: Can Edmonton’s power play finally break through? And can they stay out of the penalty box against Colorado’s dangerous man-advantage unit?
• McDavid’s supporting cast: Draisaitl has 6 points in the series but needs to be more consistent. Nugent-Hopkins, who scored twice in Game 5, must continue to produce.
• Home-ice advantage: The Avalanche are 24-5-3 at Ball Arena this season, including a perfect 5-0 record in the playoffs.

For the Oilers, tonight represents more than just a game — it’s a referendum on whether McDavid’s regular-season dominance can translate to playoff success. A loss would mark the third time in four years that Edmonton has bowed out in the second round, raising questions about the team’s ability to build a championship-caliber roster around its superstar.

As McDavid told reporters before the series: “We have a chance to put together some good hockey & go on a run.” That run starts tonight — or it ends.

What’s Next

If the Oilers force a Game 7, the series returns to Edmonton for a decisive contest on Saturday, May 2. The winner will face either the Dallas Stars or Winnipeg Jets in the Western Conference Final.

For now, all eyes are on Ball Arena tonight. Can McDavid will his team to victory one more time, or will the Avalanche advance to the next round and leave Edmonton’s superstar searching for answers once again?