Strategic Maneuvers: How Morocco and Algeria Are Navigating the War on Iran

While much of the Western world, including Spain, has been quick to condemn the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, a different narrative is unfolding in North Africa. As the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its second month, Morocco and Algeria are adopting distinct geopolitical stances—not out of simple solidarity, but as calculated moves to secure national interests and economic gains.

The North African response to the Iran war is characterized by a sharp divide. For Rabat and Algiers, the conflict is less about the immediate violence in the Gulf and more about the long-term regional balances of power, energy markets, and the enduring struggle over Western Sahara.

Morocco: Strengthening the Western Alliance

Morocco has viewed the current crisis as a strategic window to deepen its ties with Washington, Israel, and the Gulf states. This alignment is closely tied to Rabat’s claim over Western Sahara, a territory of which it has occupied 80 percent for the last five decades.

The diplomatic rift between Morocco and Iran is not new. Rabat severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2018, following accusations that Iran was delivering arms to the Polisario Front—the Sahrawi independence movement. Morocco specifically accused Hezbollah of engaging in military cooperation with the Polisario Front via the Iranian embassy in Algeria.

Since the war began on February 28, Morocco has maintained a selective diplomatic silence. While Rabat quickly condemned Iranian reprisals against its Gulf neighbors, it has remained quiet regarding the Israeli-US aggression against the Islamic Republic and Lebanon. By embracing this position, Morocco aims to solidify its standing with its key allies in anticipation of ongoing negotiations regarding the fate of Western Sahara.

Algeria: The Energy Balancing Act

Algeria is playing a far more complex game. Traditionally allied with Tehran, Algiers is currently attempting a diplomatic balancing act: defending its core principles without jeopardizing its economic interests.

Unlike Morocco, Algeria stands to gain a significant financial windfall from the instability. As a major oil and gas power, Algeria is profiting from the soaring energy prices triggered by the conflict. This puts Algiers in a position where it can maintain its geopolitical alignment with Iran while simultaneously capitalizing on the global energy crisis.

This tension underscores the rivalry between the two North African heavyweights. While Morocco leans into its alliance with the West to secure territorial claims, Algeria leverages its natural resources to maintain regional influence and support its ally, the Polisario Front.

The Economic Toll: Inflation and Energy Costs

Despite the geopolitical gains for some, the average citizen in North Africa is feeling the pinch. In Morocco’s capital, Rabat, the impact of the “Iran war” is visible at the gas pump. Diesel prices jumped from 11 Dirham to 13 Dirham almost overnight—a nearly 20 percent increase, bringing the cost to approximately 1.20 Euro per liter.

This price hike has sparked widespread frustration among transport workers and taxifahrer, who are calling for government intervention to shield citizens from the costs of the conflict. There is a palpable fear of a return to the inflation levels seen in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

To mitigate these pressures, the Moroccan government has offered subsidies to transport entrepreneurs, allowing them to apply for aid through an online portal. This mirrors the 2022 crisis, during which inflation in Morocco tripled and the state spent roughly 700 million Euro to subsidize the transport sector.

Beyond fuel, food prices have also risen. While it is unclear if this is due to increased transport costs or high demand surrounding the end of Ramadan, the result is a growing anxiety over food security and inflation across the region.

The Strategic Front: The Algeria–Polisario–Iran Axis

The conflict in the Middle East has highlighted what some analysts describe as a strategic front consisting of Algeria, the Polisario Front, and Iran. This axis represents a significant challenge to Moroccan security and stability.

While there were reports at the end of 2024 that the Pezeshkian government in Tehran was attempting to normalize relations with Morocco—including a high-level delegation visit to Rabat mediated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE—the current war has shifted the dynamics once again. The enduring accusations of Iranian logistical and financial support for separatists continue to fuel the diplomatic deadlock between Rabat and Tehran.

As the war continues to expand across the Middle East, the Maghreb remains a critical secondary theater where the fallout is measured not in bombs, but in energy prices and diplomatic alignments. The ability of Morocco and Algeria to maneuver through this crisis will likely dictate the regional balance of power for years to come.

The next critical checkpoint will be the progression of negotiations regarding Western Sahara and any further shifts in energy pricing as the conflict evolves.

Do you suppose the economic gains for energy exporters outweigh the risks of regional instability? Share your thoughts in the comments below.