Japan’s Samurai Blue: A 31-Win Resurgence and the Return of a Golden Era

By Daniel Richardson, Editor-in-Chief, Archysport

Four years ago, Japan’s national football team exited the 2022 FIFA World Cup in the Round of 16 after a heartbreaking penalty shootout loss to Croatia. Today, the Samurai Blue stand as the third-most successful national team in the world over the past four years—a 39-match stretch that has yielded 31 victories, two Asian Cup titles, and a level of consistency that has reignited talk of a new golden era for Japanese football.

For a nation that has long punched above its weight in global football, this resurgence isn’t just about results. It’s about a deliberate, data-driven rebuild that has transformed Japan into a tactical powerhouse capable of challenging the world’s best. And with the 2026 FIFA World Cup now less than two years away, the question isn’t whether Japan can compete—it’s how far they can travel.

The Numbers Behind the Resurgence

Since the start of 2023, Japan has played 39 matches, winning 31, drawing 5, and losing just 3. That’s a 79.5% win rate, a figure that places them behind only Argentina (82.1%) and France (80.4%) in the same period, according to FIFA’s official rankings and Elo Ratings data. Even more impressively, Japan has done this while facing a brutal schedule that included friendlies against European giants like Germany, Spain, and Belgium, as well as competitive fixtures in the AFC Asian Cup and 2026 World Cup qualifiers.

Here’s how the past four years break down:

Source: Japan Football Association (JFA) official match reports and FIFA.com

How Japan Rebuilt: Tactics, Trust, and a New Generation

The foundation of Japan’s resurgence was laid in the aftermath of the 2022 World Cup. While the tournament ended in disappointment, it as well served as a proving ground for a new generation of players. Manager Hajime Moriyasu, who took over the team in 2018, made a bold decision: he would prioritize “generational fusion”—blending experienced veterans with young, technically gifted players who could thrive in Japan’s possession-based system.

This approach wasn’t just about talent; it was about trust. Moriyasu gave debuts to 17 new players in the four years leading up to the 2022 World Cup, more than any other Japanese manager in history. Some, like midfielder Hidemasa Morita (Sporting CP) and winger Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad), have since become regulars in Europe’s top leagues. Others, like 20-year-old forward Ritsu Doan (SC Freiburg), have emerged as key playmakers.

Tactically, Japan has evolved into one of the most flexible teams in world football. Moriyasu’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation can shift seamlessly into a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3, depending on the opponent. Against stronger sides, Japan often drops into a low block, absorbing pressure before counterattacking with lightning-fast transitions. Against weaker teams, they dominate possession, averaging 62% ball control in their last 10 matches, per Opta data.

But the real key has been defensive solidity. In their last 20 matches, Japan has conceded just 12 goals—an average of 0.6 per game. That’s a stark improvement from the 2018 World Cup, where they conceded 7 goals in 4 matches. Central defenders Maya Yoshida (LA Galaxy) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (Arsenal) have anchored a backline that is both organized and aggressive in pressing.

The Asian Cup Triumph: A Statement of Intent

Japan’s dominance reached its peak at the 2023 AFC Asian Cup, where they stormed to their fifth title—the most of any nation in the tournament’s history. The road to glory wasn’t easy: Japan faced tough group-stage opponents in Vietnam and Indonesia before knocking out Australia in the quarterfinals and Iran in the semifinals. In the final, they met a Jordan side that had stunned South Korea in the semifinals, but Japan’s tactical discipline proved decisive.

The 3-1 victory in the final was a microcosm of Japan’s strengths: a well-worked goal from Doan, a clinical finish from Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord), and a late insurance goal from Keito Nakamura (Reims). Moriyasu’s substitutions were also pivotal—he introduced fresh legs in the second half, a strategy that has become a hallmark of his management.

“This team has shown incredible mental strength,” Moriyasu said after the final. “We didn’t just win matches; we controlled them. That’s the standard we’ve set for ourselves.”

World Cup 2026: Can Japan Go Further?

The 2022 World Cup ended in heartbreak, but it also provided a blueprint for what Japan needs to do to reach the quarterfinals—or beyond—for the first time in their history. The team’s two group-stage wins over Germany and Spain were historic, but the Round of 16 loss to Croatia exposed vulnerabilities in set-piece defending and penalty shootouts.

Since then, Japan has addressed those weaknesses. In their last 10 matches, they’ve conceded just one goal from set pieces, a dramatic improvement from 2022. They’ve also worked on penalty-taking, with players like Kubo and Doan practicing under pressure in training.

The 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, presents a unique opportunity. Japan’s group-stage draw is expected to be favorable, with the expanded 48-team format reducing the likelihood of facing European or South American giants in the early rounds. If they advance to the knockout stages, their path could include a Round of 32 clash against a CONCACAF side, followed by a Round of 16 matchup against a European or South American team.

“We’re not just aiming to qualify,” said Yoshida, Japan’s captain. “We want to make history. The quarterfinal is our minimum target.”

What’s Next for the Samurai Blue?

Japan’s next major test comes in June 2026, when they start their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign. Before then, they’ll play a series of friendlies against high-profile opponents, including a home match against Brazil in September 2024 and a trip to face England in November.

Moriyasu has also hinted at giving more opportunities to young players. The JFA’s “Project DNA” initiative, which focuses on developing technically gifted players from a young age, has already produced talents like 18-year-old midfielder Gaku Shibasaki (Leganés) and 19-year-old forward Shuto Machino (Shonan Bellmare). Both could feature prominently in the coming years.

For now, though, the focus is on maintaining momentum. Japan’s 31 wins in 39 matches aren’t just a statistic—they’re a statement. And as the 2026 World Cup approaches, the Samurai Blue are poised to make their boldest push yet for global football glory.

Key Takeaways

• 79.5% win rate: Japan has won 31 of their last 39 matches, placing them third globally behind only Argentina and France.
• Asian Cup champions: Won their fifth AFC Asian Cup title in 2023, defeating Jordan 3-1 in the final.
• Tactical evolution: Moriyasu’s flexible formations and emphasis on possession have made Japan one of the most adaptable teams in world football.
• Defensive solidity: Conceded just 12 goals in their last 20 matches (0.6 per game).
• World Cup 2026: Expanded format could favor Japan, with a quarterfinal berth now the minimum target.
• Next generation: Young talents like Ritsu Doan and Takefusa Kubo are leading the charge in Europe’s top leagues.

What’s Next?

Japan’s next confirmed fixture is a friendly against Brazil on September 10, 2024, at the Japan National Stadium in Tokyo. The match will serve as a key preparation opportunity ahead of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, which begin in June 2026.

For live updates, follow the Japan Football Association or check Archysport’s Japan national team coverage.

What do you think—can Japan reach the quarterfinals in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments below.