The conclude of the Kretschmann era in Baden-Württemberg didn’t necessarily signal the end for the Green party, but it did present a fascinating shift in political dynamics. For a time, it seemed premature to declare the arrival of a post-materialistic age – one perfectly suited to the Greens’ values. The traditional priorities of money, prosperity, growth, industry and consumption were expected to give way to diversity, justice, a clear conscience, and environmental stewardship. All the eco-values could find a home in climate protection, including the anti-capitalist sentiment and critique of industry that are integral to the Greens’ founding mythology.
But things unfolded differently. Ironically, the “great transformation” – the move towards a sustainable economy – has brought material interests back to the forefront, interests the Greens hadn’t fully anticipated. But has this been detrimental to their success? Not at all, it seems.
Kretschmann represented not only the moral and value-driven side of the Green success story, but also a different, often imperfectly described, side – the “realist.” The long-serving state premier understood that a green political movement needed a foundation in civic ethos, a belief in hard operate and homeownership to truly become a mainstream force. He therefore preached moderation, cultivated strong relationships with industry, distanced himself from more doctrinaire federal Greens, and allowed people to forget that he was, at his core, a committed environmentalist. He even authored a book exploring a “new idea of the conservative.”
What Comes After Merkel? The Question in Stuttgart
Kretschmann was as close to the “green establishment” as Angela Merkel was to the “black establishment.” Their tenures in office were roughly parallel, and it’s no exaggeration to say that Merkel’s popularity stemmed, in part, from being the first “green chancellor” in conservative clothing, and Kretschmann from being the first “black” premier in green attire. During the campaign, the party presented him as a mentor to a politician who shared his approach. Cem Özdemir, as the leading candidate, effectively transformed into a CDU politician. Campaign posters conspicuously avoided any mention of his Green affiliation.
It’s logical to expect a renewed coalition between the CDU and the Greens in Baden-Württemberg. They are increasingly indistinguishable. The CDU worked hard during the campaign to avoid disrupting this blurred image, softening its traditionally economically liberal stance with carefully calibrated messaging. Manuel Hagel championed economic growth within the state, mirroring Friedrich Merz’s approach at the federal level. However, the CDU hadn’t anticipated Özdemir’s skill in presenting a Green agenda that didn’t alienate voters, radiating a Kretschmann-like calm. Even Boris Palmer fits into this world, where Greens can casually say, “One should be able to say that, shouldn’t one?” The Kretschmann-Özdemir promise is multiculturalism with a tidy house.
The SPD, under Saskia Esken, has consistently struggled in Baden-Württemberg. It has long lacked a strong base of support, as the CDU in the Southwest, similar to the CSU, has traditionally appealed to the working-class demographic. But even as the SPD weakened, it abandoned the last vestiges of materialist thinking. They now resemble the Greens without Kretschmann, except that the SPD no longer even holds climate protection as a core tenet.
Those unwilling to embrace this black-green harmony also aren’t turning to the FDP. It’s a paradoxical fate for the liberals that, at a time when liberalism and liberal democracy are under pressure, there seems to be no place for them in the German political landscape. Those who wanted to prevent the Greens from leading chose the CDU, or, believing that the grand coalition between the two parties would remain unchanged, the AfD. The AfD is now the largest opposition party in Baden-Württemberg, embodying a radical return to a crude materialism: growth over climate protection, money over refugees, Trump over Ukraine, Putin over Kretschmann.
The FDP faces an existential crisis. Its voters are migrating to the liberal CDU, the left-liberal Greens, and the “neoliberal” AfD, seeking remnants of Christian Lindner’s policies. The SPD, however, can still hope. In some regions, the Social Democrats haven’t lost touch with reality as completely as they have in Esken’s home state.
Next weekend, elections will be held in a state where the SPD not only trails the CDU but also the Greens. Their Cem Özdemir is named Alexander Schweitzer, and is already in office. But one thing will remain the same: the grand coalition and the AfD as the largest opposition party. One condition dictates the other, and nothing else is in sight.
The political landscape in Baden-Württemberg has undergone a significant transformation, with the Greens successfully navigating a path towards the center and forging an unlikely alliance with the CDU. This shift reflects a broader trend in German politics, where traditional ideological boundaries are becoming increasingly blurred. The future of Baden-Württemberg will likely be shaped by this new dynamic, as the state grapples with the challenges of climate change, economic growth, and social justice.
As Baden-Württemberg looks ahead, the focus will be on implementing policies that balance environmental protection with economic development. The new coalition government will face the task of addressing the state’s climate goals, while also ensuring that businesses can thrive and create jobs. The success of this endeavor will depend on the ability of the CDU and the Greens to work together effectively and to find common ground on key issues.
The election results also highlight the challenges facing the SPD and the FDP in Baden-Württemberg. Both parties have struggled to connect with voters in recent years, and their future prospects remain uncertain. The SPD will need to find a way to regain its traditional base of support, while the FDP will need to carve out a distinct identity in a crowded political landscape.
The rise of the AfD in Baden-Württemberg is a cause for concern, as the party’s extremist views pose a threat to democratic values. The new government will need to address the root causes of the AfD’s support, such as economic insecurity and social alienation, in order to counter its appeal.
The coming months will be crucial for Baden-Württemberg, as the new government sets its agenda and begins to implement its policies. The state’s success will depend on its ability to navigate the complex challenges it faces and to build a sustainable future for all its citizens.
The next major checkpoint will be the formation of the new governing coalition and the announcement of key cabinet positions. This process is expected to take several weeks, as the CDU and the Greens negotiate the details of their agreement. Stay tuned to Archysport for further updates on the political developments in Baden-Württemberg.
What are your thoughts on the election results in Baden-Württemberg? Share your opinions in the comments below!
