Suzuka, Japan – The future of four-time Formula 1 World Champion Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing is increasingly uncertain, according to former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya. Amidst reports of dissatisfaction with Red Bull’s current performance and a recent foray into other racing disciplines, speculation is mounting that Verstappen could be considering a move to Mercedes. The conversation surrounding Verstappen’s long-term commitment to the team has intensified following Red Bull’s acknowledgement that they are currently falling short of the standards the Dutch driver demands.
Montoya believes that discussions between Verstappen and Mercedes are already underway and that the pressure is on George Russell to deliver a World Championship title to secure his own position within the Silver Arrows. This comes as Verstappen himself recently participated in the NLS (Nürburgring Langstrecken-Serie) race at the Nürburgring, a move Montoya interprets as a signal of exploring options beyond Formula 1.
Red Bull’s Limited Leverage
Montoya suggests that Verstappen’s participation in events like the NLS race speaks volumes about his current situation at Red Bull. “It opens your eyes that We find more racing classes, but it’s not Formula 1,” Montoya told AS Colombia. “It’s cool that Max can do this. On one hand it’s cool, but on the other hand it’s surprising that Red Bull lets him do this. I can guarantee you that if George Russell, Kimi Antonelli, or someone from Ferrari asked to do this, they’d get a ‘no.’ There’s a chance you crash into the barrier and break a leg.”
Verstappen races on the Nordschleife.
Montoya believes Red Bull is in a difficult position, essentially forced to accommodate Verstappen’s wishes to avoid losing their star driver. “Red Bull is in a position where they just say ‘yes’ to not lose Max,” he stated. “I reckon they are going to lose Max anyway, but that’s another story.” Red Bull’s start to the 2026 season has been less than ideal, and Verstappen has publicly voiced his frustrations with the new regulations. It’s clear, according to Montoya, that Red Bull has also struggled to deliver a competitive chassis.
Mercedes Discussions and Russell’s Position
“In what car did Verstappen drive last week?” Montoya asked rhetorically, before revealing he knew the answer: a Mercedes-AMG. “Ah okay,” he laughed. “I think the talks have already begun. I think the talks never ended last year. It wouldn’t surprise me, and many people are talking about it. The chance that Max will still be driving for Red Bull next year is very low.”
Montoya with Mario Andretti.
Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff has long been open about his interest in Verstappen. Though, the question remains whether Wolff will be able to create a vacancy for the Dutchman in 2027, given the presence of Kimi Antonelli, a highly-rated prospect, and George Russell, who is considered a title contender. If Russell were to win the World Championship, Wolff would find himself in a complex situation.
Potential Red Bull Replacements
Montoya also addressed the potential for Red Bull to find a replacement for Verstappen should he depart. “Red Bull would then transfer Arvid Lindblad to Red Bull,” he predicted, referencing the young driver currently within the Red Bull junior program. However, Montoya cautioned against promoting Lindblad to the main team as a direct replacement for Verstappen. “Red Bull needs an absolute leader. It wouldn’t be good to just have young drivers.”
“Hadjar is doing great,” Montoya added, referring to Red Bull-backed driver Isack Hadjar. “It’s not just about marketing, but also about experience and developing the car. George Russell would be a good candidate for Red Bull. The same goes for Kimi Antonelli, depending on whose seat Max takes over,” Montoya suggested, hinting at a potential driver swap between the two most successful teams of the past fifteen seasons.
“It’s just a rumor, but the truth is that George has to craft life as difficult as possible for Mercedes,” Montoya stated, identifying Russell as the most vulnerable driver at Mercedes. “If Antonelli beats him, they will definitely let George leave. If George becomes world champion, what do they do? They will almost finish first and second in every race. The question is what they will do with the drivers. I don’t know. Knowing Max, I would be surprised if he stays with Red Bull.” Montoya implied that Verstappen might even remain with Red Bull if Mercedes doesn’t have a seat available.
Max Verstappen currently holds a contract with Red Bull Racing through the end of 2028, but the recent developments and Montoya’s insights suggest that his future may lie elsewhere. The next few months will be crucial in determining where the four-time World Champion will race beyond the current season.
The Formula 1 season continues next week with the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai, where all eyes will be on Verstappen and Red Bull to see how they respond to the mounting speculation.
