Barcelona, Spain – Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the Spanish industry association Amec believes the situation represents a “conjunctural” problem, rather than a structural one. The organization stated Monday that its primary concern remains competition from China, even as roughly 30% of its 500 member companies are considering downward revisions to their 2026 forecasts. The assessment comes as global trade routes and economic stability face increasing uncertainty.
Joan Tristany, Director General of Amec, emphasized that the “structural conflict is Chinese competition,” a challenge amplified by tariffs imposed by the United States government. He noted that Chinese products are now “everywhere,” impacting markets worldwide. Despite the geopolitical headwinds and the ongoing trade disputes, Amec members experienced a 5.54% increase in exports in 2025 – a result Tristany described as “surprising and extraordinary” given the international landscape.
The association’s report, released Monday, indicates that while companies have shown growth, the “playing field is shifting.” Firms are approaching 2026 with a blend of “ambition and caution,” acknowledging the evolving challenges to international trade. This cautious optimism reflects a broader trend among businesses navigating a complex global environment.
Export Growth Amidst Uncertainty
Despite a general export growth rate of only 1% across Catalonia and Spain in the past year, Amec’s member companies saw a 5.54% increase in their exports. Foreign sales now account for 57% of these organizations’ total commerce, contributing to a combined turnover of approximately €16 billion, with €8.6 billion originating from exports. Notably, 74.1% of these companies anticipate further export growth in 2026, projecting increases exceeding 10% despite the prevailing geopolitical and commercial uncertainties.
A decline in trade with the Americas and Asia has been offset by increased sales in European markets. France currently leads as the primary destination for Amec member exports, accounting for 16.3% of global sales. The United States follows at 9.6%, with Portugal (7.9%), Italy (6.5%), and Germany (6.4%) rounding out the top five. This shift highlights a strategic diversification effort by Spanish companies seeking to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical instability.
Tristany specifically highlighted Saudi Arabia (representing 2.2% of sales) as a key example of successful market diversification. He acknowledged the process is “slow and complicated,” but emphasized that the Mercosur agreement offers further opportunities for expansion. This strategic move demonstrates a proactive approach to navigating a changing global trade landscape.
The Trump Effect and Diversification
This diversification strategy was initially spurred by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. However, Amec stresses that the U.S. Remains a key market for 47% of its member companies, followed by France, Mexico, Germany, and India. In 2025, a dozen Amec companies established 14 new branches in the U.S., with an estimated 16 more planned for the current year. This continued investment underscores the enduring importance of the American market despite the trade tensions.
However, the current challenges extend beyond tariffs. Tristany pointed out that Amec members have developed a level of “maturity” in responding to global disruptions, having navigated events like the situation in Algeria, Brexit, and the blockade of Russia – a market that previously accounted for 20% of sales for many firms, significantly more than the U.S. Market. “Right now, we have a problem” in the Middle East, which accounts for 5% of exports, but with “a much wider effect,” Tristany stated. The impact of disruptions in the region extends beyond direct trade volumes, affecting supply chains and overall market confidence.
Since the beginning of the year, only 30% of Amec member companies have considered revising their 2026 expectations downward due to the geopolitical situation. The report concludes that the difficulty of selling into the U.S. Market is a major obstacle to accessing international markets. Alongside territorial diversification, companies are increasingly focusing on innovation as a key strategy for maintaining competitiveness.
In 2025, Amec member firms allocated 6.2% of their spending to innovation, a significant increase from the usual 4%. “Faced with a complex situation, innovation has been prioritized,” Tristany explained, noting that 40% of companies plan to further increase their investment in this area. The response to “difficulty, uncertainty, and fierce competition from China” has been a dual focus on “market diversification and product innovation.”
This commitment to innovation is crucial for Spanish companies seeking to maintain their position in the global market. By investing in new technologies and products, they aim to differentiate themselves from competitors and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
The situation highlights the delicate balance businesses must strike between responding to immediate geopolitical challenges and pursuing long-term strategic goals. Amec’s assessment suggests that while the Middle East conflict presents a short-term concern, the more significant and enduring challenge remains the competitive pressure from China.
