Baden-Württemberg Election Escalates as Vote Nears
Stuttgart, Germany – The election campaign in Baden-Württemberg has intensified in the final days leading up to Sunday’s vote, with a tightening race between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Green Party. The CDU is now running a more aggressive campaign against the Greens, escalating the tone of the debate, whereas the Greens are defending themselves against accusations of violating fair campaign practices. A ZDF-Politbarometer poll released Friday showed both parties tied at 28 percent, signaling a potentially close outcome.
The increasingly fraught atmosphere comes as members of the current governing coalition – a partnership between the CDU and the Greens – report a breakdown in communication. Sources within the coalition say nearly all lines of dialogue between the two parties have been severed, and the atmosphere at a cabinet meeting earlier this week was described as “extremely frosty.” Reaching an agreement on a new coalition government after the election is expected to be a significant challenge.
Climate Debate Takes Center Stage
Adding fuel to the fire, a recent report by ARD highlighted CDU lead candidate Manuel Hagel’s inaccurate explanation of the greenhouse effect during a classroom visit. The clip, circulating widely on social media, has drawn criticism and sparked further debate. The footage originated from a report aired on March 2nd on ARD’s “Mittagsmagazin.”
The ARD report showed Hagel interacting with students at a school in Stuttgart. During a discussion, a teacher challenged the CDU’s current approach, pointing out that the party had been in power for ten years. Hagel responded sharply, stating, “I’m speaking to the students now.”
Later in the segment, Hagel was asked by the teacher to explain the greenhouse effect and climate change. He offered a simplified explanation: “Between the Earth and the sun is the atmosphere, and if it gets thinner, the sun gets hotter.” He attributed this to “exhaust gases, CO2 and, and, and. That’s this greenhouse effect – alright, or?”
The ARD report included an edit of Hagel’s explanation. A spokesperson for MDR, the broadcaster responsible for the segment, stated that the edit did not alter the core message of Hagel’s statement. However, the explanation presented differs from the scientific understanding of the greenhouse effect, which involves the trapping of heat by gases in the atmosphere, not a thinning atmosphere causing increased solar heat.
Hagel had previously affirmed his commitment to the climate protection goals of the state government. However, the coalition was unable to agree on strengthening climate protection measures last summer. Because the state is projected to reduce CO2 emissions by only 53 percent by 2030 – measured against 1990 levels – instead of the targeted 65 percent, a supplementary immediate program for climate protection should have been launched. This is legally required in cases of “significant deviations from the target.” The CDU disagreed, resulting in no cabinet decision on an immediate program last summer. Climate protection was the second most critical issue for both governing parties during the 2021 coalition negotiations, after fiscal consolidation, and Hagel had been involved in negotiating the coalition agreement.
Internal CDU Criticism Mounts
Within the CDU in Baden-Württemberg, criticism of the campaign strategy is growing. According to sources, a core team around Hagel operated under the assumption that the election was already won, believing that voters in Baden-Württemberg would not elect a state premier of Turkish origin and were disillusioned with the Greens following the failure of the national “traffic light” coalition. This assessment is now being questioned. It is also reported that Hagel’s decision to entrust the planning and execution of the campaign to a small circle of loyalists was a mistake. “Mobilization of the party base is weak, and several mailings were sent to potential areas because there were too few volunteers,” a CDU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, reportedly said.
The CDU is also alleging a “smear campaign” by the Greens, stemming from the release of the video featuring Hagel’s comments about a student. The video was posted on social media by Green Party Bundestag member Zoe Mayer. CDU State Secretary Tobias Vogt has accused Green Party leader Cem Özdemir of lacking “civic decency.” The CDU also points to the recent departure of Masallah Dumlu, a Green Party council member, from Hagel’s home district, Alb-Donau County.
Emotional Campaign – A Boost for the Greens?
Dumlu had discussed his plans to leave the party with the F.A.Z. Newspaper on Sunday evening at an event featuring Hagel and Günther Oettinger in Ehingen. He stated he did not want to participate in what he described as a “dirty campaign” and “mud-slinging match.” He formally announced his departure on Wednesday.
However, Dumlu’s departure is unlikely to shed much light on the “Rehbraune Augen” (doe-brown eyes) controversy and the background of Mayer’s actions, as his relationship with the Green Party has been strained for years. Dumlu has repeatedly failed in attempts to secure nominations for state and federal elections, and irregularities have been alleged in previous nomination processes.
Jürgen Filius, a lawyer and former Green Party member of the state parliament, stated that Dumlu has been attempting to expand his power base within the district association and secure nominations through questionable methods for years. Filius also noted that the CDU was aware of a party exclusion proceeding against Dumlu.
Within the Green Party, there is debate about whether the emotionalization of the campaign was helpful, particularly given that polls had been trending in their favor before the video was released.
Green Party State Chairwoman Lena Schwelling dismissed the CDU’s accusations in a conversation with the F.A.Z. On Thursday, stating, “It’s not a campaign, and it wasn’t an orchestrated effort on our part. The member of parliament made a Reel on Instagram and shared it; we were surprised.” She added that her party intends to continue running the campaign in a way that allows them to “glance each other in the eye” after the election, as a continued coalition with the CDU remains a possibility.
With the election just days away, the outcome remains uncertain. The latest polling data suggests a very close race, and the coming days will be crucial for both parties as they attempt to sway undecided voters. The election will likely determine not only the next state government but also the future direction of Baden-Württemberg’s political landscape.
What’s Next: Voters in Baden-Württemberg head to the polls on Sunday, March 8th, to elect a new state parliament. The results will be closely watched as they could have implications for national politics and the future of Germany’s governing coalitions.
Archysport will continue to provide updates on the Baden-Württemberg election as events unfold.
