With just 73 days remaining until kickoff, the 2026 World Cup is shaping up to be the most uncertain in recent memory. The latest window of international friendlies and playoff matches only amplifies the sense of suspense. It’s a level of political complexity not seen since the 1978 World Cup in Argentina, a tournament held under the shadow of a military junta known for systematic kidnapping and torture.
The United States, Mexico, and Canada are venturing into uncharted territory as hosts. The United States, hosting 78 of the 104 matches leading up to the final in New Jersey, faces a particularly unique set of challenges. This marks the first time in history that the host nation’s government is simultaneously conducting large-scale raids to capture and repatriate foreign nationals, many of whom arrive from countries participating in the competition. There’s precedent for a host nation threatening to invade the territory of a qualified country or engaging in global repercussions against another.
The cancellation of the Finalissima, a planned match between Spain and Argentina in Doha, underscores the growing geopolitical tensions impacting the sport. The event, backed by Qatari investment, was intended as a prelude to the World Cup. However, the ongoing conflicts involving the princes of Arabia threaten a significant source of funding for FIFA and its affiliates, including the Spanish federation. Despite these external pressures, the business of football continues, seemingly unstoppable.
Argentina, the defending champions, recently faced Mauritania in La Bombonera, a match that proved surprisingly challenging, nearly ending in a draw. “It’s a excellent thing we weren’t playing Spain, given that we would have lost if we played like that,” remarked goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez after a narrow 2-1 victory, attributing the team’s lackluster performance to a lack of enthusiasm. This match highlighted lingering doubts surrounding Argentina’s form heading into the tournament, mirroring the concerns they faced before their successful run in Qatar 2022. A key issue remains the lack of established defensive options to support veteran Nicolás Otamendi.
However, Argentina’s midfield appears to be solidifying under Lionel Scaloni. He arrived at the 2022 World Cup without fully settling on a starting lineup, but the necessity of making changes during the group stage ultimately led to a winning formula built around Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister. Replicating that success in the United States will require consistent performances from the Chelsea and Liverpool players.
A powerful central midfield is a fundamental requirement for success in international football. Throughout history, champions have been built around exceptional midfielders like Xavi, Lothar Matthäus, or Gerson, and attacking players with midfield qualities like Lionel Messi, Ronaldinho, or Zinedine Zidane. Argentina, Spain, Portugal, England, and France currently occupy the top spots in the list of favorites, contingent on Carlo Ancelotti’s ability to assemble a cohesive midfield for Brazil and Julian Nagelsmann’s discovery of suitable interiors for Germany to succeed Kroos and Gündogan alongside Jamal Musiala.
Portugal’s recent 0-0 draw against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca didn’t reveal much new information about the team, which remains arguably the most talented squad, if not for the internal tensions surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo’s role. While Ronaldo didn’t play in Mexico, his anticipated presence in the United States doesn’t necessarily guarantee a solution. His pursuit of individual prominence has, at times, disrupted the team’s overall balance. Roberto Martínez faces a delicate management challenge.
England’s 1-1 draw with Uruguay at Wembley served primarily as an opportunity for experimentation under Thomas Tuchel. As Barney Ronay of The Guardian noted, “the match was forgettable as it was played,” but it’s clear that England possesses a wealth of versatile talent, including Harry Kane, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, and Phil Foden. They arguably have more depth than France, who defeated Brazil 2-1 in a friendly in Massachusetts. While not the Finalissima, the match underscored a long-term trend in international football. Kylian Mbappé, returning from a month of inactivity, led France to victory despite playing with ten men for the majority of the second half.
France and Brazil represent the two most prolific talent factories in the world. However, their trajectories are diverging. While France is effectively organizing its resources, Brazil is grappling with a lack of clear ideas and administrative inefficiencies. Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment as Brazil’s coach reflects a sense of disorientation within the CBF. The decision to secure a proven celebrity coach, even on an emergency basis, highlights the challenges facing Brazilian football. Notably, this will be the first World Cup in history without a Brazilian coach at the helm.
There’s a shortage of strategic thinkers and a lack of critical analysis. Former Brazil international Bebeto recently invoked superstition, stating, “When we won in 1994, Brazil hadn’t won the World Cup for 24 years; now it’s been another 24 years, so it’s our turn! We are the five-time champions! Let’s not forget! We have players of absurdly good quality!”
Brazil and the Nostalgia for Neymar
No nation has won more World Cups than Brazil, and no nation has produced more qualified footballers to attempt the feat. Now, Ancelotti must discover his equivalent of Enzo Fernández – potentially Bruno Guimarães, currently injured, or Gabriel Sara of Galatasaray, if he can take on more responsibility than simply providing the final pass. Another question mark is whether Brazil will succeed with Vinícius Júnior playing as a central striker. Ancelotti has experimented with this approach at Real Madrid, but it hasn’t been successful, nor has it worked under Dorival in the recent qualifying matches, where the team suffered its worst losing streak in history. It’s no surprise that the loudest chant from the crowd at the Gillette Stadium on Thursday evoked nostalgia for a familiar figure: “¡Olé-olé-olá…! ¡Neymar, Neymar…!”
Brazil, Germany, and Italy, the most successful nations in World Cup history until 2014, are undergoing periods of significant transformation. While Brazil’s struggles stem from administrative incompetence, recent international matches demonstrate that Germany and Italy – with four titles each – have fallen behind due to a lack of footballing talent. Sandro Tonali, once a supporting midfielder, emerging as a hero in Italy’s first playoff match against Northern Ireland (2-0) is indicative of their current state. Italy will face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoff final this Tuesday, with a chance to return to the World Cup after missing the previous two tournaments, but they remain far from being considered favorites.
Germany did qualify for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, but were eliminated in the group stage of both. Now, Nagelsmann is searching for central defenders and defensive midfielders in a nation once renowned for producing them, finding only Thilo Kehrer and Leon Goretzka. Without Manuel Neuer, who has retired, and Marc-André ter Stegen, who is injured, even the goalkeeper position appears vulnerable, despite a 3-4 victory over Switzerland in Basel on Friday.
