Before the season started, someone who bet on a Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Seahawks could have struck themselves rich. Very rich, even!
It may seem easy, now that the finalists are known, to say that these were two excellent teams and that there are no surprises. The reality is that before the opening kickoff, the greatest guessers in this world would never have imagined the Seahawks and the Patriots in the final game next Sunday in San Francisco.
No expert had these two finalists in their plans. Nor does Nostradamus, for that matter. Perhaps even Jojo Savard could not have seen such a surprise emerging.
If you don’t believe me, I won’t be offended. Rather, Pro Football Reference says so. To date, there has never been a Super Bowl between two teams whose odds of participating in the game were at least 60 to 1.
Before the season, the Seahawks, who did not make the playoffs last year despite a 10-7 record, were considered potential Super Bowl finalists at 60-1 odds.
The Patriots, after a second straight 4-13 season, were considered at 80 to 1.
The combined chances of two teams meeting in the ultimate match were therefore 4,800 to 1. According to the football bible that is Pro Football Reference, this is therefore the most surprising Super Bowl to date, ahead of the one between the Rams and the Titans in 1999, at 4,500 to 1.
It’s only the sixth time in Super Bowl history that two teams that weren’t playoff contenders the previous season have met.
My good and my bad moves
What about yours truly? For those who have forgotten, I predicted before the season a Super Bowl between Ravens and Rams. For the Rams, who have reached the final four, I will not engage in a session of self-harm. For the Ravens… I can’t help it, I blame them terribly!
Moreover, in the American conference, I was correct on four of the seven clubs in the playoffs, namely the Bills, the Texans, the Broncos and the Chargers.
I can blow my trumpet by reminding you that I even predicted a division championship for the Broncos, ahead of the Chiefs. However, my balloon quickly deflates when I realize that I predicted last place in the South for the Jaguars, who won the division. I saw the Bengals sneaking in, rather than the Steelers.
Among my other mistakes, I had not imagined the royal stampede of the Chiefs, but let’s face it… neither did you!
And the Patriots in all this? I told you that they would surprise with a positive record of 9-8 and that they would come close to the playoffs. They got ahead of my plans.
In the national conference, same observation. I was right on four of the seven teams in the playoffs, namely the Eagles, the Packers, the Rams and the 49ers. I had false hopes for the Lions, the Vikings and the Falcons.
I salute in passing the president of the unwavering Bears fan club, who criticized me for seeing him as too small for his team, which I imagined languishing in last place in its division. My deepest apologies for this criminal misdeed!
And the other Super Bowl finalists, our dear Seahawks? In my infinite wisdom, I announced to you a poor 7-10 record, a disappointing season for quarterback Sam Darnold and an exclusion from the playoffs.
Sometimes it would be better to bury certain writings, but I console myself by telling myself that I was not able to predict a Super Bowl that no one saw coming.
Belles reconstructions
All this to remind you that it is not only in Montreal that a reconstruction can experience success more quickly than expected in the world of sport!
Remember, two years ago the Patriots parted ways with Bill Belichick, while the Seahawks did the same with Pete Carroll. It was the end of two legendary coaches and in the eyes of many, the beginning of a long fall.
Now Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald are replacing them masterfully.
In Seattle, draft picks in recent years have paid off big. Since 2023, seven of them are now on the starting lineup. The Patriots have six in the same period.
Surprisingly, the Patriots were the league’s biggest spenders during the last free agent cycle. The Seahawks were fourth. Both teams have stunned everyone this year with their approach and results.
Follow me all week on site, in San Francisco, for this Super Bowl that comes out of nowhere.
FIVE KEY DUELS
Within a big duel like the Super Bowl, there are small, decisive duels. They often involve players who are less observed than quarterbacks, but whose role is critical. Here are five of his duels to watch closely in this ultimate duel between Seahawks and Patriots.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba contre Christian Gonzalez
Getty Images via AFP
Including playoff games, Smith-Njigba is the league’s most productive receiver this season with 1,965 yards. We know he will have the ball, 70,000 people in the stadium know he will have the ball, yet he continues to produce. He will face Christian Gonzalez, who has given up the lowest total yards per pass attempt in the direction of the receivers he has covered this season. It will be an epic showdown!
DeMarcus Lawrence contre Will Campbell
Getty Images via AFP
Seahawks defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence has two sacks in the playoffs and six this season. He should deal with Will Campbell, a rookie tackle who conceded four sacks in three playoff games. Quarterback Drake Maye had at least four sacks in each of the playoff games. Campbell and the Patriots offensive line absolutely need to get their act together.
Kenneth Walker III contre Milton Williams
Getty Images via AFP
Versatile defensive lineman Milton Williams was initially hired by the Patriots because he excels at applying pressure on the aerial game. The fact remains that he is also one of their best players on the team against the run and that the Seahawks presented the 10e best ground attack this season, with Kenneth Walker and his magical feints. Williams has been to three of the last four Super Bowls and he knows the song.
Nick Emmanwori vs. Stefon Diggs
Getty Images via AFP
Rookie defensive back Nick Emmanwori is the quintessential chess piece of the Seahawks defense. Even though he lacks experience in his first year, nothing shows. He accumulated 81 tackles, including nine for losses, which demonstrates his skills against the run. He will also have to excel against Stefon Diggs in the aerial game. The two rivals often meet inside and this face-to-face promises.
Byron Murphy II contre Rhamondre Stevenson
Getty Images via AFP
The Patriots are banking on an effective two-headed monster in the backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. The two, with the help of Drake Maye, who runs the ball very well, have propelled the Patriots’ ground game to fifth in the league. Stevenson plays a physical style that can allow the Patriots to make long, methodical drives. In his second year, tackle Byron Murphy will be the key player against the run.
DID YOU KNOW THAT…
SEAHAWKS
– The Seahawks led the NFL with a differential of +12.1 points per game. Their three defeats were by a total of nine points.
– If the Seahawks have a weakness, it’s on third downs and more than seven yards to go. They are 31e in the league (16.8%), while the Patriots are first in defense (15.4%) in this situation.
– Quarterback Sam Darnold is on his fifth team. This is the highest total for a quarterback to reach the Super Bowl since Chris Chandler, in 1998, who was on his sixth team (Falcons).
PATRIOTS
– The Patriots scored 18 points per game in the playoffs, the lowest average for a team that reached the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams (15 points per game).
– Drake Maye became the seventh quarterback in history to go to the Super Bowl in his second season at the latest, after Brock Purdy (2023), Joe Burrow (2021), Russell Wilson (2013), Colin Kaepernick (2012), Ben Roethlisberger (2005), Tom Brady (2001), Kurt Warner (1999) and Dan Marino (1984).
– The Patriots will wear their white uniform. In the Super Bowl, since 2005, the teams in white jerseys have a record of 16-4.
