A region of the world plunged into uncertainty. The American military operation in Venezuela, on the night of January 2 to 3, resulted in the capture of the country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro. An intervention which marks a new stage in the foreign policy led by American President Donald Trump. Can this coup lead to others in Latin America? Since this weekend, the Republican has not hesitated to increase threats against several states in the area. Words that echo the publication of the new American national defense strategy in mid-December. This document called for regaining “supremacy” of the United States over the entire American continent.
During his press conference the day after the operation in Caracas, Donald Trump referred to his desire to reconnect with a modernized form of the “Monroe Doctrine”, named after the 5th American president, James Monroe. In the 19th century, the latter had promoted the idea according to which the United States should maintain a certain control over the entire American continent. And this, to the detriment, at the time, of European settlers. “According to our new national security strategy, American domination in the Western Hemisphere will never again be called into question,” urged the current tenant of the White House in his speech.
Cuba, Marco Rubio’s obsession
To restore this influence, the Republican administration has set several objectives. The fall of the Chavista regime of Nicolas Maduro, accused of fueling drug trafficking in the United States, was one of them. But other countries have also been openly cited as possible targets by the American president and his supporters. Cuba, a long-time opponent of Washington, is one of them. During his first term, Donald Trump had already restored sanctions against Havana, after a period of relaxation initiated under the mandate of Barack Obama. These restrictions were further tightened when he returned to power last year.
Very weakened economically, subject to successive health crises, incessant power cuts and growing poverty, Cuba risks being even more weakened after the fall of Nicolas Maduro. Indeed, Caracas has until now mainly supplied the Caribbean archipelago with oil. More generally, the country was a faithful ally of Venezuela. The Cuban government indicated that 32 of its soldiers had been killed during the American operation against the Chavista leader. These men actually acted as close guard for the latter.
During his press conference, Donald Trump considered the situation in Cuba “similar” to that in Venezuela. “Cuba is going to be a subject that we will end up talking about, because Cuba is currently a bankrupt country,” he asserted. Behind this project, one man hopes more than anything to see the Cuban president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, removed from power: Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Son of Cuban immigrants in the United States, the head of American diplomacy has long been opposed to the Castro dynasty and its heirs, in power on the island since 1959. As reported by the New York Times mid-December, the official considered the fall of Nicolas Maduro as the condition sine qua non to consider destabilizing the Cuban regime. “If I lived in Havana and I was part of the government, I would be at least a little worried,” Marco Rubio warned on Saturday.
A new operation, this time in Colombia? “A good idea”
If the former Florida senator makes Cuba an obsession, Donald Trump has extended his threats well beyond the Caribbean. Venezuela’s neighbor, Colombia, a major producer of cocaine, is also in the billionaire’s sights. His criticisms particularly target his left-wing president Gustavo Petro. In mid-November, he already described him as a “drug lord who strongly encourages the massive production of narcotics” in his country. “Petro, a little-liked and very unpopular leader… had better close these killing fields immediately, otherwise the United States will close them for him and that won’t happen kindly.” From the first days of his second term, the Republican had put pressure on Bogota to force it to accept the return of Colombian migrants to its soil.
Gustavo Petro does not hide his hostility towards Donald Trump. After the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, also described as a drug trafficker by Washington, the Colombian president, a former guerrilla, said he was ready to “take up arms again” in the event of American intervention. Earlier this weekend, Donald Trump urged him to “watch his butt” over his alleged involvement in the export of cocaine to the United States. Threats reiterated on Sunday: on board Air Force One, the leader estimated that the organization in Colombia of an operation similar to that in Caracas would be “a good idea”.
Airstrikes in Mexico mentioned by Donald Trump
The growth of drug trafficking and its devastating effects on the American population are also reasons given to justify potential military action in Mexico. “Would I launch strikes in Mexico to put an end to drug trafficking? That poses no problem to me,” Donald Trump assured in mid-November. One of his many statements on this subject in recent months. However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, also on the left, has not completely severed the channel of discussions with Donald Trump. This summer, the American president even praised the quality of his exchanges with his Mexican counterpart. “More and more, we are learning to know and understand each other,” he praised on July 31, on Truth Social.
But, galvanized by the success of his operation in Venezuela, the Republican has now changed his tune. “I asked her many times if she wanted us to eliminate the cartels,” Donald Trump said on Fox News on Saturday morning. A proposal to which Claudia Sheinbaum responded in the negative. “So we must act,” concluded the American president. This Monday, the leader also raised her voice to denounce the vision of the Latin American zone now in force in Washington. “Mexico firmly maintains that America does not belong to any doctrine or to any power,” she explained during her daily press conference. “The American continent belongs to the people of each of the countries that form it.”
