Bonjour,
I prefer to warn upfront, it’s my first session and I’m not sure I completely master the codes…
After listening to episode 217 of the podcast on the trade deadline rumors and reading Antoine’s article on the 10 players who were really going to be traded by February 5, I keep the same feeling of disagreeing with the central idea. Indeed, in his two analyses, Antoine underlines that the trade deadline is often played up by journalists but that in the end, few significant players are exchanged. He mainly mentions one reason for this: why attempt a trade a few months before summer and free agency, periods which offer teams greater flexibility?
However, in my opinion this idea is no longer entirely valid in 2026. Let me explain.
Although there are only 2 months of the season left (4 if playoff), these are decisive in the quest for the title. And it can change the history of a franchise! In the recent past Toronto, but also Dallas and Boston, were in the final by “only” 2-3 good months starting in January. Trading for a player at the deadline surely involves a risk… but we can reverse the reasoning and say that we are trading for a player in good shape for an entire playoff campaign, without the hassle of the long regular. The idea that only teams built for the long term and fully planned in advance win is certainly sexy (and reinforced by the OKC and Denver example), but not an absolute truth.
Recent years have seen some very big trades take place outside of the summer period, beyond the Doncic example. I looked briefly at the last few years, just at players who were at one point all-stars (or not far away) or at least important players in playoff runs, and we have for example:
2025 – Ingram, Butler, Wiggins, Doncic, Davis
2024 – PJ Washington, Hayward, you, Barrett, annoby, Harden, Gafford
2023 – Durant, Mikal Bridges, Hart, Gordon, Westbrook, Russel, Irving, Poetl
2022 – Harden, Simmons, Porzingis, White, Ibaka, Sabonis, Haliburton
Finally, and as Shai points out in the same podcast, the fact that many franchises are financially blocked in winter can be an advantage for other teams. Knowing that the competition to attract such a player in the summer will be great, perhaps proposing a trade early is a good option (see Indiana with Haliburton, Dallas with Kyrie).
In short, all this leads me to think that Antoine’s “adage” that there are rarely big trades in winter is a little out of date. I have the impression that today the NBA franchises are saying that, if in a few months they are going to seek a title, why not move, even if it means moving again this summer?
And you, what do you think? Are we seeing a real trend of franchises which, depending on the trajectory of their current season, do not hesitate to rebuild from the winter or, conversely, to attempt big moves? Or will big players still be mostly traded in the summer, when everyone is on the beaches of Florida?
