Yesterday’s victory, 2 consecutive days of victory, 19 wins in the past 32 days, a total of +16 wins, a very amazing win + performance
Discussion on the rationality of concessions
The Oklahoma City Thunder have shown super dominance in the league this season and currently rank first in the Western Conference with a record of 30 wins and 7 losses. Its home performance is particularly strong, with 17 wins and 3 losses, averaging 14.5 points behind its opponents per game (averaging 121.3 points per game, conceding 106.8 points). Even though it has suffered two consecutive defeats recently, its strong offensive and defensive foundation at home cannot be underestimated. On the other hand, the Utah Jazz are currently only ranked 13th in the Western Conference, with an overall winning rate of only 34.3%. Its away performance is even more dismal, with 4 wins and 12 losses, with an average net loss of 12.4 points per game (111.7 points per game, 124.1 points conceded), and is at the trough of three consecutive away games. Judging from the recent status of both sides, the Thunder have 5 wins and 5 losses in the past 10 games, while the Jazz have only 2 wins and 8 losses, and have suffered four consecutive losses. In terms of historical confrontations, the Thunder have obvious advantages, winning 8 of the past 10 duels. In the first two meetings this season, they defeated the Jazz by a large margin. If the model is calculated purely based on the net points left at home and away this season, the Thunder should have a very significant theoretical handicap advantage at home. However, the initial concession range generally given by the outside world is relatively conservative, which is in contrast to the Thunder’s strong fundamentals and the Jazz’s continued sluggish state. This deviation between the data model and market positioning is worth exploring in depth whether there is any special consideration behind the Thunder’s state fluctuations or the Jazz’s potential rebound.
Discussion on the rationality of total score value
From the perspective of offensive firepower, both the Thunder and Jazz are teams with plenty of scoring ability. The Thunder averaged 121.2 points per game this season, ranking among the top in the league, and averaged 121.3 points per game at home. Although the Jazz have a poor record, they still average 119.6 points per game, showing that their offensive end is not without threats. The recent offensive status of the two teams has also been maintained at a certain level: the Thunder have averaged 121.0 points per game in the past 10 games, and the field goal percentage is as high as 47.5%; the Jazz have averaged 118.2 points in the past 10 games, and the field goal percentage is as high as 47.6%. Especially in the past confrontation records between the two sides, the frequency of big scores is not low. However, the initial total points set by the outside world for this game are generally lower than the theoretical expectations derived from the season average scores of the two teams. The Thunder are a team that is both offensive and defensive, allowing only 107.6 points per game and having excellent defensive efficiency. The Jazz are just the opposite, losing an average of 127.0 points per game and having huge defensive holes. It stands to reason that with the Thunder’s efficient offense facing the Jazz’s weak defense, the total score of the game should be higher. However, the current total score setting seems to be more inclined to believe that the rhythm of the game may be controlled, or to prevent a sudden decline in a certain side’s offensive efficiency. This contradiction with the intuitive offensive data and defensive performance of the two teams undoubtedly increases the suspense about the direction of the total points in this game.
The following unlocked content includes: Comparison explanation between theoretical values and actual values + data point of view.
