The regular season which ended last week held its share of surprises, and if the playoffs are like the last few months, no team among the 14 qualified is safe. No one really seems to stand out. Very familiar faces from recent years, like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, are not in the big dance and are giving way to new blood. The Eagles, defending champions, will have their work cut out to retain their title. To get off to a good start in this hunt for the Vince-Lombardi trophy which will end in San Francisco on February 8, here are 10 stories to watch in the first round.
New faces
When you’re told there’s new blood in the NFL playoffs this year, that’s not just a phrase thrown into the air. Three quarterbacks are making their first presence, namely Drake Maye with the Patriots against the Chargers, Bryce Young with the Panthers against the Rams and Caleb Williams with the Bears against the Packers. Going further, no less than six of the 14 quarterbacks in place have a maximum of three playoff starts. To the previous list, we must add Trevor Lawrence (two starts) with the Jaguars against the Bills, Jordan Love (three starts) with the Packers against the Bears and Justin Herbert (two starts), whose Chargers will face the Patriots.
From zeros to heroes
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They always say that parity in the NFL is hard to equal and that every year, the last can become the first. This is not a figure of speech! This year’s field of 14 playoff teams is made up of a record five teams that lost 11 or more games a year ago: the Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, Panthers and 49ers. Another record comes because two teams with at least 13 wins, the Patriots and Jaguars, had 13 losses a season earlier. Find a league where the merry-go-round spins that fast!
A new weapon
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The day may not be far away when a playoff game will be won on a 70-yard field goal. This season, kickers have made remarkable progress, making 12 field goals of 60 yards or more on 22 attempts. This is unheard of. For example, just last year, kickers only made four field goals in 15 attempts over this same distance. Until 2000, there had only been four field goals of 60 yards or more. These long placements have literally become a new weapon that must be taken into account, particularly in managing the end of matches. Jaguars kicker Cam Little is one to watch, who this season made the two longest field goals in history, 67 yards and 68 yards, with ease.
Few miracles
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When it comes to finding the quarterback who will guide a team towards the possibility of winning major honors, there is no quick fix. No less than 12 of the 14 pivots present in the playoffs were selected in the first round. The only two exceptions are Jalen Hurts with the Eagles (picked at 53e ranked, in the second round) and Brock Purdy with the 49ers (chosen at 262e rank, in the seventh round). Of the 12 first-round quarterbacks, four were taken first overall (Bryce Young, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams) and five others were selected in the top 10.
Finally a first?
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Since 1966, the NFL has presented the Super Bowl and in this contemporary era, 12 teams have still not lifted the Vince Lombardi Trophy. This year, five competing teams are fighting for a first title. The Bills are potentially the hungriest, having lost the final game four years in a row in the 1990s. The Chargers, who have been in the league since 1960, have lost the Super Bowl once, at the end of the 1994 season. The Panthers and Jaguars, who debuted in 1995, are also in this group. The Panthers fell short to the Broncos in 2015 and the Patriots in 2003, while the Jaguars never went there. The babies of the NFL, the Texans, born in 2002, will try to reach the big game for the first time.
Watch out for the trap!
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In this first round, the match that promises to be the most one-sided is that between the Rams and the Panthers. Even though the duel will take place in Charlotte, Carolina, the Rams are favored by 10 points by the oddsmakers, having won 12 games this season, compared to only eight for the Panthers. In history, eight playoff clashes have pitted two teams with at least a four-win difference. In these eight matches, the team with the most victories lost six times. Last year, the Vikings (14 victories) were surprised by the Rams (10 victories). This situation also occurred in 2014 (Cardinals vs. Panthers), in 2011 (Steelers vs. Broncos), in 2010 (Saints vs. Seahawks), in 2008 (Colts vs. Chargers) and… in 1934 (Bears vs. Giants).
You suspense, please!
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The best a football fan can hope for during this first round weekend is suspense in the six matches presented. Realistically, this is too rarely the case since the 14-team playoff formula was implemented in 2020. Last year, the average gap in the first round was 15.2 points per game. In 2023, it was even worse with an average gap of 17.3 points. Over the five-year sample, the average is 13.4 points apart. A year ago, only one match in the first round was competitive, that of 23-20 in favor of the Commanders against the Buccaneers.
Rodgers’ farewell?
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At the helm of the Steelers attack against the Texans, Aaron Rodgers could play one last career game. Although he hasn’t revealed his plans, Rodgers is 42 years old. If there is one criticism leveled at him in his illustrious career, it is that his team has disappointed too often in the playoffs. Since his Super Bowl triumph at the end of the 2010 campaign, Rodgers has never taken his team beyond the conference finals. Five times in his career, he experienced a quick exit in the first round. His 12-10 record, when you consider his immense talent, is disappointing, even if it doesn’t all depend on him. Rodgers will be playing his first playoff game since January 22, 2022, a 13-10 loss to the 49ers.
Save Josh Allen!
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If there’s ever a time Josh Allen and the Bills can get revenge for many of the cruel failures they’ve suffered, it’s this year. Teams that gave the quarterback a hard time, like the Chiefs, are not there. Many like to blame Allen when things go wrong for the Bills, but objectively speaking, he has played at a generally exceptional level in the playoffs. In 13 games, he completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,359 yards, in addition to adding 668 yards on the ground. He was responsible for 32 total touchdowns, with just four interceptions. However, under his leadership, the Bills’ record is only 7-6.
A historic rivalry
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The oldest rivalry in NFL history is in the spotlight Saturday night. Green Bay and Chicago have had 212 meetings since 1921 and the Packers dominate the series with 109 wins, 97 losses and six ties. The most incredible thing in this long history is that the two eternal division rivals have only crossed paths twice in the playoffs. The first time was December 14, 1941, when the Bears won 33-14. The second and last time was 15 years ago, on January 23, 2011, in the national conference final. The Packers took their revenge by winning 21-14. In 2025, the two teams shared the honors of their doubleheader.
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