It is an agreement reached before the massive protest movement which is shaking Iran, marked by violent repression by the regime. It may seem surprising at first glance, as tensions are so high between Israel and Iran. These two rival states secretly colluded through Russia, reports le Washington Post Wednesday January 14. They exchanged messages, via a Russian intermediary, affirming that they would not launch a preventive attack against each other, indicates the famous American daily.
In late December, days before the protests in Iran began, Israeli officials informed Iranian leaders, via Russia, that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel was not attacked first. Tehran responded – still through Moscow, which seeks to strengthen its position with Donald Trump in order to obtain concessions in negotiations on the war in Ukraine – that it would also refrain from any preventive attack, according to diplomats and regional officials informed of these exchanges requested by the American daily. Last week, Israeli public broadcaster KAN reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had recently asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to convey to Iran the message that Israel did not intend to attack it.
A “good deal” for Tehran?
Iranian officials reacted positively to the Israeli initiative. However, they remained suspicious of Israel’s intentions, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Iran believed that even if the Israeli assurances were sincere, they cast doubt on the possibility that the American army would launch attacks against Iran as part of a campaign coordinated by the two allies, while Israel would concentrate its forces exclusively on Hezbollah, these same sources specified.
Still, “for Iran it was a good deal” involving staying away from any clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian Lebanese militia, a senior regional official said on condition of anonymity. US officials told the Washington Post that Iran’s substantial support for Hezbollah has already diminished anyway, especially since Tehran is facing major domestic unrest.
Remembrance of the Twelve Day War
The hostility between the two sworn enemies of the Middle East, who clashed during a twelve-day conflict in June, is known. At that time, Israel launched a major surprise attack against Iran even as nuclear negotiations were underway between Washington and Tehran. Several months after this war, contacts between Israel and Iran reflect Israel’s desire to avoid being seen as a factor in escalating tensions with Iran or as spearheading new attacks against this country, at the very time when the Jewish state was preparing a major military campaign against Hezbollah, according to diplomats and regional officials. These private assurances contrast with Israel’s public rhetoric late last year, when its officials openly discussed the possibility of carrying out further strikes against Iran to curb what they then described as the rapid turnover of the country’s ballistic missile stockpiles.
Will the violent protests that have rocked Iran in recent weeks, testing the government’s power, change the calculations of Israel and Iran? Will the two enemy states always respect their private agreement? Impossible to know at this stage. After threatening to intervene militarily in Iran, Donald Trump appeared to make a turnaround on Wednesday, assuring that “the killings were ending” in Iran and that the mullahs’ regime had “no plans” to execute demonstrators. Any American military strike could in any case encourage Iran to retaliate against Israel, according to analysts.
An interested Israeli “silence”
The Jewish State is observing the protest with an attentive and interested eye. “Israel is closely monitoring the situation in Iran,” Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday. “The people of Israel and the entire world are in awe of the immense courage of Iranian citizens,” he said, condemning the “mass massacres against civilians” and hoping that Iran will “soon be freed from the yoke of tyranny.” However, no threats against the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have been made.
Apart from a few statements, such as these, Israeli leaders have appeared somewhat in the background. Israel thus seems to be waiting to see how the protest movement will evolve, and is giving the American president time to decide on possible action. “The general instruction is to remain silent,” an Israeli official told CNN. One reason for this silence is that if Israel were to get involved now, it would give Tehran exactly what it needs most: the ability to shift attention away from current internal problems and onto a foreign adversary, its sworn enemy at that.
