Flamengo Carioca Qualification Odds: 35.17% Chance

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The Baixada team drew 2-2 with Volta Redonda, in this fourth round, leaving them with one point more than Flamengo. More than that, the team still has one more game than the red-black team. With this, the team coached by Carlos Vitor will face Bangu and Portuguesa depending only on themselves to qualify. If they win a game they will reach eight points, more than Flamengo can reach (seven).

As a result, Filipe Luís’ team will have to hope that Nova Iguaçu at least draws in one game and loses in the other. Although with two draws from Baixada, the teams would have the same seven points, the red and black would have to overcome a deficit of five goals on balance (1 against -4), which would make classification difficult.

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Madureira also lost in this fourth round — to Portuguesa, 2-0 —, but has six points and still plays two rounds. If they win one of the matches or just draw both games, they will become unreachable for the red and black team. The only way for Flamengo to beat Madureira is if they win their match with Sampaio and the suburban Tricolor loses the remaining two games. The first is against Vasco, at home, and the second against Volta Redonda, away from home.

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