BeijingThe announcement that General Zhang, along with General Liu Zhenli, have been removed from their positions and are being investigated for “serious violations of discipline and law,” a euphemism that eventually translates into accusations of corruption, has set off all sorts of rumors in China.
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The regime’s informational opacity prompts all sorts of theories, such as that Xi Jinping has internal contestation or, on the contrary, that he is consolidating his power, to speculation about whether this decision will delay or advance the invasion of Taiwan. Even on Western social networks there has been speculation about a possible coup attempt with troops deployed in the capital, but in Beijing the situation is business as usual.
Zhang Youxia’s fall has been unexpected. He was the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the body that directs the armed forces and is chaired by Xi Jinping. Zhang, 75, was the top military official in the People’s Liberation Army and had a special relationship with Xi Jinping, as both their parents had fought together during the civil war. Both are “red princes” of the Communist Party, which is how the children of prominent members of the Revolution are known. Despite passing retirement age, Xi promoted Zhang in 2022 to the highest-ranking military responsibility.
war veteran
A scathing editorial in the armed forces newspaper accused Zhang and Liu of harming the Party, the state and the military and “severely weakening the image and authority” of the CMC leadership, namely Xi Jinping. Precisely this editorial has triggered speculation about whether the struggle for power was one of the causes of Zhang’s defenestration. The general may have betrayed Xi Jinping’s trust by defying him. He is a charismatic general and carried the aura of being one of the few left with real combat experience. A 20-year-old Zhang had participated in the war against Vietnam in 1979.
the newspaper The Wall Street Journal has published that Zhang could be charged with selling information on Chinese nuclear weapons to the United States, a charge that is hard to believe given China’s tight control over its top officials. Accusations of espionage are common to support the idea that the accused is unpatriotic.
Along with Zhang, General Liu Zhenli, head of the CMC’s Joint General Staff department, has also been dismissed. Liu acted as a liaison with foreign forces and the loss of this link can generate mistrust.
Uncertainty about Taiwan
Analysts disagree on how these purges will affect Taiwan. The United States maintains that 2027 is the date that Xi Jinping has set as a target for recapturing Taiwan militarily. Defenestration of the EAP dome may cause a power vacuum that forces the operation to be delayed until the chain of command is restored. Instead, others believe that Xi Jinping’s absolute control over the military will accelerate the attack, as he has removed military experts who may question the intervention.
What is clear is that Xi Jinping has sent the direct message that no one is safe in his war on corruption.
The Chinese president has sacked his military leadership: of the seven members that made up the CMC, only two remain: Xi Jinping himself and Zhang Shengmin, secretary of the disciplinary commission, i.e. the anti-corruption chief.
Last October, allegations of corruption were confirmed against He Weidong, the number two in the rung and deputy secretary, like Zhang, of the CMC. In total, the expulsion of nine high-ranking generals was announced. Two defense ministers have also been dismissed and arrested, and in 2023 the Missile Force was busted, sending eight senior commanders to prison.
In total, the Chinese president has dismissed nearly a fifth of all the generals he appointed since coming to power in 2012.
Corruption within the military is an undisputed fact and the campaign launched by Xi Jinping has had great popular acceptance. The primary objective for the Chinese president has been the modernization of the armed forces by equipping them with modern weaponry and also professionalizing its members. Corruption created a serious problem of reliability and efficiency, as the purchase of charges was common.
But the continuous purges also generate instability. The fall of Zhang and Liu does not come alone: their collaborators will be purged behind them. Xi has managed to remove an entire generation of senior officials, and successors can be much more loyal to the president and not question his decisions. Behind the purges may also be the need for the armed forces to remain clear that they answer organically to the Chinese Communist Party.
