Arsenal and Bayern have already qualified for the round of 16. Villarreal, Kairat Almaty, Eintracht Frankfurt and Slavia Prague, already eliminated. They are the only teams that face the last match of the championship phase without excessive pressure Champions League. The others are played a lot tonight at 9pm, with all 18 games at the same time.
«The Champions League standings»
Atalanta directly to the round of 16 if…
Despite having thrown away a good part of their chances, Atalanta is the Italian with the best chance of getting into the 8. Their hopes of reaching the round of 16 have collapsed to 16% after the home defeat against Athletic Bilbao and they are passing, forced by a success in Brussels against Union St. Gilloise. However, it might not be enough given that the Nerazzurri are only thirteenth. A draw would guarantee them to be seeded in the play-offs.
Inter, to get into the 8’s you need a miracle
The defeat against Arsenal reduced Inter’s chances of the round of 16 to 6%. Tonight in Dortmund, Chivu’s men (fourteenth with 12 points, one less than Atalanta) will have to win to hope again and in any case, at the very least, avoid defeat so as not to suffer the further insult of finishing outside the top 16 and losing their seeded status in the play-offs.
Juventus, win in Munich to hope
Juventus is sure of the play-offs but has little chance of reaching the round of 16 directly. Only 5% chance of flying directly to the round of 16: the Bianconeri are currently fifteenth, same points as Inter but worse goal difference. In summary, win and hope that the 6 teams behind them fail in their match. A positive result (even a draw) would still guarantee reaching the play-offs as seeded teams.
Napoli, forbidden to lose against Chelsea
The most complicated situation is that of Napoli, which has slipped to 25th place: the chances of going to the play-offs are 56% and on the last day it will be essential not to make any missteps like Maradona with Chelsea. The defeat would almost definitively close the doors of qualification, unless there are unlikely concatenations of favorable results from other fields (the home defeat of Athletic Bilbao against Sporting Lisbon, the defeats of Copenhagen against Barcelona and of Bruges at home against Marseille and also the failed victories of Bodo Glimt in Madrid against Atletico, of Pafos against the already eliminated Slavia Prague and of Benfica against Real Madrid).
Round of 16, almost done for Liverpool, Barcelona and Real
Eighth speech. Apart from Arsenal and Bayern, Liverpool has also practically won the ticket (at 97%). For the rest, the best chances of avoiding a round now lie with Barcelona and Real Madrid (82%), Manchester City (64%), PSG (63%) and Atletico Madrid (55%).
Mou’s Benfica risks elimination
As regards, however, the passage to the next round, it is worth mentioning the exploit of Qarabag who, with the success against Eintracht, made themselves practically safe, increasing their chances of qualifying from 36 to 99.5%. It’s practically done for Galatasaray too, which rose from 93 to 99.9%. Significant step forward for Olympiacos (from 22 to 55%), Athletic Bilbao (from 18 to 54%), and Bruges (from 34 to 39%). Ajax and Bodoe Glimt are still hoping (from 2 to 10%). A highly negative day, however, as well as for Napoli, for PSV (dropped from 83 to 54%), Benfica (from 50 to 27%), Copenhagen (from 27 to 9%) and Union St. Gilloise (from 20 to 8%).
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