One week and 36 matches to draw a picture. The last two days of the Champions League group stage are fast approaching and promise suspense at all levels for our French clubs, whose objectives are different.
If PSG is aiming for direct qualification in the round of 16 by finishing in the top 8 of the rankings, OM and Monaco hope to finish, after the big multiplex evening on Wednesday January 28, in the top 24, synonymous with accession to the play-offs.
As a reminder, and before going into detail about the issues for the three French clubs, here is how the qualification system works:
- The first 8 teams in the group stage qualify directly for the round of 16. The first four will have “home advantage”, that is to say, to receive the return match for these round of 16.
- The teams ranked from 9th to 24th place are qualified for the play-offs, a sort of round of 16, where they will compete against each other (the 9th against the 24th, the 10th against the 23rd, etc.) to join the 8 teams already qualified in the eighth.
- Teams ranked 25 to 36 are eliminated from all European competitions.
For PSG, a victory should be enough for the eighth
His ranking: 3e with 13 points
His schedule: trip to Sporting, reception of Newcastle
For PSG, the only certainty is that nothing will be certain on Tuesday evening, after the trip to Sporting Portugal. A victory would not mathematically assure him of a place in the top 8 and therefore of a place of eighth finalist, just as a defeat would not prevent him from having another chance against Newcastle next Wednesday to achieve this objective.
So much for math. In fact, by taking the three points in Portugal, PSG, already assured of being at least a barrier, would take a huge step towards the top 8. With 16 points and a very favorable goal difference, it would need to largely lose at home against Newcastle and an avalanche of unfavorable results in other matches to get out of the top 8. As a reminder, last year, the 7th and 8th in the group stage themselves qualified with… 16 points. A combination of favorable results (defeats of Real Madrid, Liverpool, Inter, etc.) could even seal Parisian qualification for the round of 16 as of… this Wednesday evening.
In the event of a draw or defeat, the situation would become more complicated but would not necessarily be dramatic for Paris. A victory against Newcastle at the Parc des Princes, on the last day, should also be enough to secure the top 8. Except, again, a very improbable combination of circumstances in the results of the other contenders for direct qualification in the eighth.
For OM, it will take at least one point
His ranking: 16e with 9 points
His schedule: reception of Liverpool, trip to Club Bruges
Probabilities aren’t everything. Last year, for the first season in this format, the most famous statistics firm in the world of football, Opta, revealed after running thousands of simulations that with 10 points at the end of the group stage, a club had a 99% chance of being among the first 24 and qualifying for the play-offs. No luck for Dinamo Zagreb, 25th and first eliminated with… 11 points!
The lesson to be learned for OM? That a point in their last two matches, at home against Liverpool or in Belgium against Club Bruges next week, should be enough to ensure the Top 24, but that the Marseillais would be well inspired to win at least two to be sure of seeing the play-offs. According to the Opta simulator, OM today has a 94.8% chance of being in the playoffs.
Note that with two victories, OM would also have a small chance of qualifying directly for the round of 16 thanks to this magnificent finish. Again, this would depend on many results in the other meetings.
For Monaco, we will have to tear ourselves away
His ranking: 19e with 9 points
His schedule: trip to Real Madrid, reception of Juventus
The situation of AS Monaco resembles that of OM, just a bit more complicated. With 9 points, the Rocher club is currently in the thick of qualifying for the play-offs in 19th place (with a less favorable goal difference than Marseille) but its schedule for the last two days is terrible with a trip to Real Madrid this Tuesday evening and the reception of Juventus, two teams which also need points.
To see the play-offs, like OM, ASM will have to at least take a point against one of the two teams. And it would take away a good dose of stress with a victory at the Bernabeu on Tuesday evening, thereby ensuring its place in the play-offs.
